ISIS may be on a downhill path

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-11-22/news/68484340_1_muslim-world-kobane-boko-haram

(A Drizzle than a Storm These…)

By Ajai Sahni

The Islamic State or Daesh is a monster that has evolved in a vast crucible of chaos constructed out of centuries of sectarian hatred, the legacy of fractious colonial cartography, sustained mis-governance and, most recently, the arrogant, ignorant and irresponsible interventions of Western powers. Its abrupt ascendancy across Iraq-Syria and in the global imaginations has been the result of an extraordinarily sophisticated use of contemporary instruments of communication, slick propaganda tools to project theatrical acts of macabre violence, access to large sources of wealth that made it the richest terrorist group in the world, the creation of a terrorist controlled protostate and the declaration of a purported Islamic Caliphate.

While the first and more enduring set of factors that has created the environment of 'savagery' (to borrow the Islamists' terminology) within which Daesh has flourished are unlikely to be addressed over the medium term, the second set, the very factors that contributed to Daesh's prominence among the current forces of disorder, is likely to be the most significant causes of its degradation and eventual demise. While its excesses and propaganda won it thousands of recruits from across the world, it has also united the world's powers — including much of the Muslim world — against it and created a near-consensus that Daesh must be crushed; while Daesh was rich as long as it was a mere terrorist formation, the creation of a proto-state, with duties of the 'administration of savagery' and the provision of public goods has left it starved of resources; and while the declaration of the 'Caliphate' has attracted thousands to its armies and its cause, this act of hubris has alienated millions of devout Muslims, and all other Muslim majority states.

A Drizzle than a Storm These considerations are crucial as the world now struggles to devise responses to the attacks in Paris — though it is not clear why these attacks demand a more urgent response than, for instance, the downing of the Russian Metrojet airliner which killed 224 on October 31; or the slaughter of over 2,000 people by Boko Haram in Baga town in Nigeria in January this year; or, indeed, the tens of thousands slaughtered in Iraq and Syria over the past years, to mention a few of many examples of worse terrorist atrocities.

The reality is Daesh is a dead man walking, and has been for some time now. Its military prowess has always been vastly exaggerated; its early successes were the result of the pandemic of dread it had inspired through its projection of atrocities across the internet. The result was that it met with little serious resistance in its virtually uncontested initial advances before it hit sectarianethnic boundaries, as adversaries simply abandoned their positions and their weapons, and fled. Wherever it has met with serious opposition it has failed, recently and most notably in Kobane and Sinjar, though there is a peppering of lesser engagements that reinforce the same assessment. As its 'headquarters' in Raqqa come under increasing pressure, desertions are mounting, and Daesh has been forced to execute hundreds of its own fighters to enforce the continuing 'loyalty' of others.

Indeed, Daesh has only survived because members of the 'coalition against terror' have intentionally held back, each for divergent 'reasons of state'; the much acclaimed Western bombing campaigns have been described by one commentator as a 'drizzle' rather than a 'storm'. After the Kurds had driven Daesh out of Kobane and Sinjar, they have been poised for victory in the last major Daesh stronghold along the Turkish border Jarabulus. The loss of Jarabulus would have choked off the 'pipelines of jihad' through Turkey, but Ankara blocked the Kurds from moving forward.

Indeed, Turkey has used its position in the anti-Daesh coalition more to bomb out its own Kurdish opposition than to target Daesh. Russia's president Vladmir Putin clearly told the recent G20 Summit that nearly 40 nations, including some G20 members, were aiding Daesh.

In its Defeat We Win

What is needed, then, is intensified and narrowly targeted operations against Daesh and a marginalisation, at least temporarily, of other divergent interests, include the re-emerging Russia-America 'great power rivalry'. There were some indications, immediately after the Paris atrocities, that the irrational Western position would be diluted, and Russia's intervention in support of the Assad regime would be accepted, at least as a temporary expedient, but this expectation is already fading, though there have been significant improvement in the coordination of Russian and bombing Western operations over the past days.

It is crucial to understand that Daesh's defeat will destroy the source of much of the terrorism that it currently inspires in other theatres. It is only in defeat that the group will be discredited and delegitimised in the eyes of its adherents.

At the same time, conventional intelligence and enforcement responses need to be deepened across the world, in all areas of vulnerability.

While these would help prevent many potential incidents, they are likely to fail at least on occasion, and it is necessary to accept the risk of at least intermittent and distressing terrorist attacks in Daesh's target states as long as the group survives.

(The author is executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi)