https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/08/could-american-spooks-provoke-war-with-beijing-south-china-sea-cia/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=Flashpoints
In May, the U.S. Defense Department invited a CNN team onto the
Navy’s newest, most sophisticated spy plane, the P-8A Poseidon. After
taking off from Clark Air Base in the Philippines, pilots flew the
aircraft near three islands in the South China Sea, where Chinese
reclamation and military building projects are taking place. The
operation, however, wasn’t just intended to collect intelligence. It
appears it was also meant to provoke a hostile reaction from China and,
thanks to the news cameras on board, use that response for propaganda —
to blatantly tell the world that America thinks China’s territorial
claims are illegal and dangerous.
The Chinese sent eight strong warnings to the plane. “This is the Chinese navy,” said one radio operator. “Please go away … to avoid misunderstanding.” Later, the Chinese Foreign Ministry called the flight “very irresponsible and dangerous” and noted that Beijing would “take the necessary and appropriate measures to prevent harm to the safety of China’s islands and reefs as well as any sea and air accidents.”
When CNN broadcast its story, it played a recording of the warnings, and Jim Sciutto, the correspondent who had been on the plane, dutifully adopted the Pentagon’s party line as his own. “China’s enormous land grab … [is] alarming,” Sciutto said. “It’s hard to see how this tension doesn’t escalate going forward.” To reinforce the need for alarm, the network also featured former CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell, who cautioned that war is “absolutely” a possibility. (CNN did not present opposing viewpoints on the complex legal issues involved in the South China Sea.)
The incident is just one confrontation in a duel now escalating between the United States and China. This September, the Pentagon blamed China for allowing military jets to make an unsafe maneuver by passing in front of the nose of a U.S. RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft over the Yellow Sea. The following month, the U.S. Navy penetrated the 12-nautical-mile limit that China claims as territory around its artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago — a deliberate challenge to Beijing’s self-declared sovereignty. U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter told Congress, “We will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law permits and whenever our operational needs require.” China’s Foreign Ministry responded to the incident by stating that Beijing “will not condone any action that undermines China’s security.”
American history shows that this perversion of purpose — turning missions into provocations — is fraught with hazard. Half a century ago, for instance, the Pentagon ordered a National Security Agency (NSA) spy ship, the USS Maddox, to breach North Vietnam’s territorial limit in the Gulf of Tonkin. The series of events that ensued (namely false reports of attacks on the ship) led Congress to pass the Gulf of Tonkin resolution, which authorized the use of force in Southeast Asia and catapulted the United States into a war that killed millions of people. But even routine intelligence missions that do not defiantly breach boundaries sometimes go terribly wrong. The NSA has a long history of risky air and sea operations that have turned deadly. Deep in the agency’s Maryland headquarters, in fact, is a wall of black granite with the names of more than 150 personnel killed on such missions.
During the Cold War, more than 50 U.S. and allied aircraft were attacked by the Soviet Union, China, and North Korea; at least 15 NSA spy planes were shot down. In one incident, a plane was patrolling 32 miles off China’s coast on Aug. 22, 1956, when Chinese fighters were spotted approaching. Minutes later, halfway through an alert message back to its base, the plane crashed into the East China Sea, killing all 16 crew members. Although there was never proof, it was presumably shot down. Afterward, in a secret meeting at the White House, President Dwight Eisenhower told Adm. Arthur Radford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “We seem to be conducting something that we cannot control very well. If planes were flying 20 to 50 miles from our shores, we would be very likely to shoot them down if they came in closer, whether through error or not.”
Similar concerns weigh heavy in the ongoing American-Chinese standoff. In the spring of 2001, for example, an EP-3 NSA eavesdropping plane operated by the Navy collided with a Chinese military jet sent up to observe it. As the Chinese craft plunged down, killing the pilot, the damaged U.S. plane was able to make an emergency landing on China’s Hainan Island. Had it crashed, it’s very likely that many members of Congress immediately would have accused China of purposely shooting down the EP-3 and killing two dozen crew members. And there’s a good chance the next step might have been war. (Beijing set the crew free, but not before analyzing top-secret documents and sensitive NSA gear found on the plane.)
As tensions continue to mount between the United States and China, it’s time to take a closer look at U.S. spying practices and determine which ones aren’t worth the risks involved. Certainly, zooming planes over islands in the South China Sea — with or without a media team present — to draw Beijing’s ire seems unwise. But it’s also important for the White House and intelligence agencies to formally assess, through some kind of coordinated review process, which routine missions are no longer necessary. With so many spy satellites now in orbit, able to photograph even small objects on Earth and eavesdrop on everything from cell phones to radar signals, the need for expensive air and sea operations may be overkill: spying for the sake of spying, sometimes with lethal consequences.
Given that the purpose of intelligence should be to prevent wars rather than start them, the current U.S. administration would do well to ask when espionage is necessary to national security — and when it simply means playing with fire.
A version of this article originally appeared in the November/December 2015 issue of FP under the title “Cloak and Dagger.”
The Chinese sent eight strong warnings to the plane. “This is the Chinese navy,” said one radio operator. “Please go away … to avoid misunderstanding.” Later, the Chinese Foreign Ministry called the flight “very irresponsible and dangerous” and noted that Beijing would “take the necessary and appropriate measures to prevent harm to the safety of China’s islands and reefs as well as any sea and air accidents.”
When CNN broadcast its story, it played a recording of the warnings, and Jim Sciutto, the correspondent who had been on the plane, dutifully adopted the Pentagon’s party line as his own. “China’s enormous land grab … [is] alarming,” Sciutto said. “It’s hard to see how this tension doesn’t escalate going forward.” To reinforce the need for alarm, the network also featured former CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell, who cautioned that war is “absolutely” a possibility. (CNN did not present opposing viewpoints on the complex legal issues involved in the South China Sea.)
The incident is just one confrontation in a duel now escalating between the United States and China. This September, the Pentagon blamed China for allowing military jets to make an unsafe maneuver by passing in front of the nose of a U.S. RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft over the Yellow Sea. The following month, the U.S. Navy penetrated the 12-nautical-mile limit that China claims as territory around its artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago — a deliberate challenge to Beijing’s self-declared sovereignty. U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter told Congress, “We will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law permits and whenever our operational needs require.” China’s Foreign Ministry responded to the incident by stating that Beijing “will not condone any action that undermines China’s security.”
American history shows that this perversion of purpose — turning missions into provocations — is fraught with hazard.
American history shows that this perversion of purpose — turning missions into provocations — is fraught with hazard. Half a century ago, for instance, the Pentagon ordered a National Security Agency (NSA) spy ship, the USS Maddox, to breach North Vietnam’s territorial limit in the Gulf of Tonkin. The series of events that ensued (namely false reports of attacks on the ship) led Congress to pass the Gulf of Tonkin resolution, which authorized the use of force in Southeast Asia and catapulted the United States into a war that killed millions of people. But even routine intelligence missions that do not defiantly breach boundaries sometimes go terribly wrong. The NSA has a long history of risky air and sea operations that have turned deadly. Deep in the agency’s Maryland headquarters, in fact, is a wall of black granite with the names of more than 150 personnel killed on such missions.
During the Cold War, more than 50 U.S. and allied aircraft were attacked by the Soviet Union, China, and North Korea; at least 15 NSA spy planes were shot down. In one incident, a plane was patrolling 32 miles off China’s coast on Aug. 22, 1956, when Chinese fighters were spotted approaching. Minutes later, halfway through an alert message back to its base, the plane crashed into the East China Sea, killing all 16 crew members. Although there was never proof, it was presumably shot down. Afterward, in a secret meeting at the White House, President Dwight Eisenhower told Adm. Arthur Radford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “We seem to be conducting something that we cannot control very well. If planes were flying 20 to 50 miles from our shores, we would be very likely to shoot them down if they came in closer, whether through error or not.”
Similar concerns weigh heavy in the ongoing American-Chinese standoff. In the spring of 2001, for example, an EP-3 NSA eavesdropping plane operated by the Navy collided with a Chinese military jet sent up to observe it. As the Chinese craft plunged down, killing the pilot, the damaged U.S. plane was able to make an emergency landing on China’s Hainan Island. Had it crashed, it’s very likely that many members of Congress immediately would have accused China of purposely shooting down the EP-3 and killing two dozen crew members. And there’s a good chance the next step might have been war. (Beijing set the crew free, but not before analyzing top-secret documents and sensitive NSA gear found on the plane.)
As tensions continue to mount between the United States and China, it’s time to take a closer look at U.S. spying practices and determine which ones aren’t worth the risks involved. Certainly, zooming planes over islands in the South China Sea — with or without a media team present — to draw Beijing’s ire seems unwise. But it’s also important for the White House and intelligence agencies to formally assess, through some kind of coordinated review process, which routine missions are no longer necessary. With so many spy satellites now in orbit, able to photograph even small objects on Earth and eavesdrop on everything from cell phones to radar signals, the need for expensive air and sea operations may be overkill: spying for the sake of spying, sometimes with lethal consequences.
Given that the purpose of intelligence should be to prevent wars rather than start them, the current U.S. administration would do well to ask when espionage is necessary to national security — and when it simply means playing with fire.
A version of this article originally appeared in the November/December 2015 issue of FP under the title “Cloak and Dagger.”
3 comments:
Why not? The US with its we will fly,sail and blah blah is the cause of all the tension.The Vietnam War provocation shd be used as a guide.58000 young GIs died
because a President conned Congress into authorising war.
In a war with China,though the latter can be defeated and devastated,the US will have to bear unacceptable damage.
I don't know. Maybe its the neocons plan to break up China with the Taiwan question the litmus test. If Taiwan gets a way with independence,the US through its proxies may try to detach Mongolia,Tibet ,Sinkiang and HK.
You never know. If Taiwan were to declare independence ,it will trigger ww3.Though China will be destroyed,the US will suffer catastrophic damage which will get worst as time goes on.
US history since the end of ww2 has been a series of wars starting from Korea to
ISIS.It is a never ending game designed to fill the coffers of the mic.
The current tension in SEA is agolden opportunity to provoke the PLA into attacking a US ship thereby giving the black guy the excuse to start a war with China.You never know.
We all know how the Vietnam war started.The difference is the scale of destruction
will be massive in a China war.Can be pulverized and dismemebered. The US will suffer unimaginable destruction,something alien to their war culture.The immunity enjoyed by the US since its founding will be gone in a flash.
Hang on. It aint as easy as it appears. China could surprise the US.On paper the US is all powerful and shd make mincemeat of the PLA.However the price to pay will be awesome.
This is the stark choice facing the wh.
Since the implosion of the SU,the US has suffered from enemy deprivation to justify
the huge defence budget.It has an overkill in nw and is itching to use them on ,you guess it,China.China is big and a good target for the US thousands of nm.
That's why the US provocative fon,and all the bs.China aint a threat to US security. Its the other way round.The current US navy patrols are to provoke the PLA thereby triggering a US attack.
The problem is the bm is ill advised by hawks with links to the money making arms industry.China can be defeated and destroyed. However the price will be unimaginable .The PLA will make any conventional/nuclear war unwinnable.As times goes on,it will be infinitely more difficult/costly for the US to start a war with China.
Btw,China can be a sponge to suck up the US nm and fire some of their own nm
making sure the US wont the same again.
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