By: Rob Denaburg
Major attacks against the diplomatic area of Kabul City and the Kandahar Airfield in southern Afghanistan cast doubt on the Afghan government’s ability to maintain stability throughout the country. Taliban militants loyal to Mullah Akhtar Mansour launched a complex SVBIED, SVEST, and small arms attack on a guesthouse near the Spanish Embassy in Kabul on December 11. The ANSF clashed overnight with attackers in a fortified area of Kabul that houses several embassies and NGOs. Roughly a dozen Taliban militants loyal to Akhtar Mansour also breached the perimeter of the Kandahar Airfield, barricaded themselves in civilian buildings, and clashed with Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) for nearly 24 hours on December 8. The airfield - a joint NATO-Afghan base and civilian airport - is one of the most guarded compounds in the country. The Taliban published live updates on the Kabul and Kandahar attacks as they unfolded, including photos posted on their website, and a video addressing U.S. President Barack Obama circulated on Telegram. The use of these encrypted messaging applications and live broadcasting tools demonstrates that the Taliban is adapting to the new era of online jihadism as practiced by ISIS and al-Qaeda. The Kabul and Kandahar attacks call into question the ANSF’s capacity to protect key terrain and its most secure facilities. These concerns in turn cast doubt upon the central government’s ability to provide security in more remote areas such as Reg-e Khan Neshin District in neighboring Helmand Province, which Taliban militants captured on December 9 after nearly a week of clashes with security forces.
Internal Taliban divisions and growing ISIS threat undermine regional efforts to restart a peace process despite diplomatic overtures. Ongoing clashes between rival Taliban factions continued to highlight deep divisions within the movement following the confirmation of the death of Taliban founder Mullah Omar in July 2015. Rival Taliban fighters began clashing in Shindand District in Herat Province in western Afghanistan on December 7, reportedly amassing nearly one hundred total casualties. This violence follows months of clashes in Zabul Province that ultimately led to the death of dissident Taliban commander Mullah Mansour Dadullah in November 2015. ISIS will attempt to capitalize on these divisions as well as further fragmentation that may result following unconfirmed reports on the death of principal Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour on December 2. ISIS’s Wilayat Khorasan released a video on December 7 encouraging Muslims to join the group in the fight against the governments of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. ISIS also released a video featuring an Afghan in Syria who encouraged Taliban fighters to join ISIS while warning that the Taliban will ultimately abandon jihad “in the name of nationalism” as part of a peace process with the Afghan government. There is no credible prospect of effective peace talks at this time. The U.S. and China have nonetheless exerted significant pressure on Afghanistan and Pakistan to mend ties and resume peace talks with the Taliban. The four countries met on the sidelines of the Heart of Asia conference in Islamabad on December 9 and expressed a joint desire to “immediately” resume the peace process. This rhetoric remains unlikely to translate into action given the divisions within Taliban ranks as well as the divergent interests of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
See:“Afghanistan Threat Assessment: The Taliban and ISIS,” by Jessica Lewis McFate, Rob Denaburg, and Caitlin Forrest, December 11, 2015; “ISIS in Afghanistan,” by Harleen Gambhir, December 3, 2015; “Warning Update: Taliban Northern Offensive Expands,” by Saagar Enjeti, October 1, 2015; “Is the Islamic State Escalating in Afghanistan?” by Lauren McNally, April 27, 2015; The Taliban Resurgent: Threats to Afghanistan’s Security, by Lauren McNally and Paul Bucala, March 20, 2015. Direct press or briefing requests on Afghanistan here.
Major attacks against the diplomatic area of Kabul City and the Kandahar Airfield in southern Afghanistan cast doubt on the Afghan government’s ability to maintain stability throughout the country. Taliban militants loyal to Mullah Akhtar Mansour launched a complex SVBIED, SVEST, and small arms attack on a guesthouse near the Spanish Embassy in Kabul on December 11. The ANSF clashed overnight with attackers in a fortified area of Kabul that houses several embassies and NGOs. Roughly a dozen Taliban militants loyal to Akhtar Mansour also breached the perimeter of the Kandahar Airfield, barricaded themselves in civilian buildings, and clashed with Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) for nearly 24 hours on December 8. The airfield - a joint NATO-Afghan base and civilian airport - is one of the most guarded compounds in the country. The Taliban published live updates on the Kabul and Kandahar attacks as they unfolded, including photos posted on their website, and a video addressing U.S. President Barack Obama circulated on Telegram. The use of these encrypted messaging applications and live broadcasting tools demonstrates that the Taliban is adapting to the new era of online jihadism as practiced by ISIS and al-Qaeda. The Kabul and Kandahar attacks call into question the ANSF’s capacity to protect key terrain and its most secure facilities. These concerns in turn cast doubt upon the central government’s ability to provide security in more remote areas such as Reg-e Khan Neshin District in neighboring Helmand Province, which Taliban militants captured on December 9 after nearly a week of clashes with security forces.
Internal Taliban divisions and growing ISIS threat undermine regional efforts to restart a peace process despite diplomatic overtures. Ongoing clashes between rival Taliban factions continued to highlight deep divisions within the movement following the confirmation of the death of Taliban founder Mullah Omar in July 2015. Rival Taliban fighters began clashing in Shindand District in Herat Province in western Afghanistan on December 7, reportedly amassing nearly one hundred total casualties. This violence follows months of clashes in Zabul Province that ultimately led to the death of dissident Taliban commander Mullah Mansour Dadullah in November 2015. ISIS will attempt to capitalize on these divisions as well as further fragmentation that may result following unconfirmed reports on the death of principal Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour on December 2. ISIS’s Wilayat Khorasan released a video on December 7 encouraging Muslims to join the group in the fight against the governments of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. ISIS also released a video featuring an Afghan in Syria who encouraged Taliban fighters to join ISIS while warning that the Taliban will ultimately abandon jihad “in the name of nationalism” as part of a peace process with the Afghan government. There is no credible prospect of effective peace talks at this time. The U.S. and China have nonetheless exerted significant pressure on Afghanistan and Pakistan to mend ties and resume peace talks with the Taliban. The four countries met on the sidelines of the Heart of Asia conference in Islamabad on December 9 and expressed a joint desire to “immediately” resume the peace process. This rhetoric remains unlikely to translate into action given the divisions within Taliban ranks as well as the divergent interests of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
See:“Afghanistan Threat Assessment: The Taliban and ISIS,” by Jessica Lewis McFate, Rob Denaburg, and Caitlin Forrest, December 11, 2015; “ISIS in Afghanistan,” by Harleen Gambhir, December 3, 2015; “Warning Update: Taliban Northern Offensive Expands,” by Saagar Enjeti, October 1, 2015; “Is the Islamic State Escalating in Afghanistan?” by Lauren McNally, April 27, 2015; The Taliban Resurgent: Threats to Afghanistan’s Security, by Lauren McNally and Paul Bucala, March 20, 2015. Direct press or briefing requests on Afghanistan here.
No comments:
Post a Comment