A crown of thorns It will be a tightrope walk for Suu Kyi

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/a-crown-of-thorns/165895.html

Posted at: Dec 3 2015,  G Parthasarathy

There are murmurs that Suu Kyi wants a rubber stamp President.

THE November 8 elections in Myanmar reaffirmed that its people, cutting across religious and ethnic differences, have an abiding faith in the abilities of the charismatic Aung San Suu Kyi to lead them to an era of ethnic peace, prosperity and democratic freedoms. Administering a stunning rout of the ruling military dominated Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy won in 135 out of the 168 seats contested in the Lower House and 255 of the 330 seats contested in the Upper House. These results assured her a comfortable majority in both Houses of Parliament, where 25 per cent of members are nominated by the armed forces. The army continues to play a significant role in national affairs, especially on issues of internal and external security.

Ruling Myanmar inevitably involves wearing a crown of thorns. Ever since its independence in 1948, Myanmar has been torn apart by a number of ethnic insurgencies. There are 135 different ethnic groups in the country, with the majority Burmans (Bamars) constituting 68 per cent of the population. But, in substantive terms, the country comprises seven states, representing the seven major ethnic nationalities and seven regions, of majority Bamars. The basic problem of Myanmar has been its inability to fashion a constitution based on “unity in diversity”. Just before independence, Suu Kyi’s father, General Aung San, who was the hero of the country’s independence struggle, reached an agreement in February 1947, known as the Panglong Agreement, which proclaimed that “citizens of frontier areas shall enjoy rights and privileges, which are regarded as fundamental in democratic societies”. Aung San also promised: “Full autonomy in internal administration for the frontier areas”.

Seven decades later, Myanmar is still being torn apart by ethnic insurgencies, along its borders with Thailand, China and India. While the Thein Sein government reached “peace accords” with eight ethnic groups, the most powerful armed groups in Shan state, bordering China, and the Kachin state bordering India and China, remain recalcitrant. Ethnic insurgencies have periodically received support across Myanmar’s borders with Thailand and China. China withheld support for cross-border insurgencies in Kachin and Shan states, ever since Deng Xiao Ping so ordained in the 1980s. Beijing has, however, recently resumed providing logistical and military support to the 8,000-strong Kachin Independence Army astride the India-Myanmar-China frontier and the 20,000 strong United Wa State Army, along the borders of its Yunnan Province with Shan state.

While Suu Kyi’s NLD won substantive support in these states, the ethnic insurgencies cannot be tackled without the support of the army, which controls the key ministries of defence, home affairs and border areas. Whether the army will give her a free hand to negotiate the sort of autonomy for ethnic minority states that her father envisaged in 1947 appears doubtful. This, in turn, could well lead to the erosion of the support she received from minority ethnic states in the recent elections. Moreover, like its counterparts in Pakistan, Indonesia and Thailand, the Myanmar army, particularly its senior officers, past and present, have built a vast economic empire covering even areas like mining for jade and rubies, which they are hardly likely to surrender in a hurry.

The army recently flexed its muscle when the Parliament Speaker and head of the army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, Shwe Mann, was reportedly negotiating with Suu Kyi, for sharing power after the elections. The army surrounded the residence of Shwe Mann, who is a highly decorated former army commander in chief. The President then promptly sacked him. A member of the NLD decisively defeated Shwe Mann, in the recent elections! In these circumstances, eyebrows were raised when Suu Kyi, who is constitutionally debarred from being elected President, proclaimed: “If the NLD wins the elections and we form a government, I am going to be the leader of that government, whether or not I am President,” adding, “Do you have to be President to lead the country?” The Myanmar constitution proclaims that the President “takes precedence over all other persons”.

Suu Kyi’s statements have resulted in expressions of concern from President Thein Sein, who has been the architect of a steadfast move towards democracy in the past five years. She asked for meetings with President Thein Sein, army commander in chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and Speaker of Parliament Shwe Mann, as soon as the victory of the NLD became clear. While President Thein Sein and the army commander in chief welcomed the election results, there are clear indications of unease and unhappiness at what appeared to be her readiness to disregard constitutional provisions. The army chief has indicated that given the ethnic insurgencies in Myanmar, the moves Suu Kyi envisages for constitutional change cannot be rushed through. There are already murmurs that Suu Kyi wants a rubber stamp President to fulfil her ambition to “lead the country”. The names being mentioned even include persons like her personal physician! 

Military dictatorships in Myanmar’s neighbours, Indonesia and Thailand, have not surrendered power easily, or in a hurry. In Indonesia, the military had a 20 per cent representation in Parliament from 1959 to 2004. In that period, the military — backed Golkar Party largely enjoyed a majority in Parliament. It is only after President Joko Widodo assumed office recently that the army does not have a significant role in governance. Thailand has experienced 12 military coups since 1932, with the most recent coup in 2014 resulting in the ouster of the elected and popular government of Yingluck Shinwatra. The transition to the formation of a new NLD led government has to be handled carefully and sensitively by all concerned, recognising that military rulers have historically handed over powers across Asia, hesitantly and slowly. Any instability in Myanmar is not in India’s interests, especially as Beijing is now involved in providing shelter and arms to separatist groups from both India and Myanmar, across their borders with Myanmar’s Kachin state. New Delhi will have to act imaginatively in dealing with President Thein Sein, the military and Suu Kyi to do whatever it can, to facilitate a smooth transition in Myanmar.