2016 Global Forecast

By Craig Cohen, Melissa Dalton

NOV 15, 2015 

An annual collection of wide-ranging essays by CSIS experts, 2016 Global Forecast discusses the issues that will matter most to America and the world’s security and prosperity in the year ahead.

Open publication - Free publishing

PART 1: GEOSTRATEGY

Reconnecting of Asia

John J. Hamre

PART 2: U.S. STRATEGY

America’s Changing Role in the World

Kathleen H. Hicks

Seeking the Right Strategy for Our Time

Michael J. Green

The Challenge to U.S. Leadership

James A. Lewis

PART 3: MIDDLE EAST

Isis (Re)Writes History

Jon B. Alterman

Wanted: A U.S. Strategy for Syria and Iraq

Melissa G. Dalton

Iran After the Agreement

Anthony H. Cordesman

U.S.-Israel Ties After the Agreement

Haim Malka

PART 4: RUSSIA, EUROPE, AND EURASIA

Putin’s Europe

Heather A. Conley

Inside the Kremlin

Olga Oliker

A NATO Strategy for the Eastern Flank

Jeffery Rathke

Sino-Russian Cooperation

Jeffery Mankoff

PART 5: NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTH ASIA

Reform Cold, Politics Hot: President Xi Jinping at Mid-Term

Christopher K. Johnson

Economic Consequences of China’s Slowdown

Scott Kennedy

Geopolitical Consequences of China’s Slowdown

Bonnie S. Glaser and Matthew Funaiole

Beyond TPP: Shaping an Economic Strategy in Asia

Ernest Bower, Matthew Goodman, and Scott Miller

Interested in India’s Geopolitical Future? Look to its States

Rick Rossow

North Korean Vulnerability?

Victor Cha and Lisa Collins

PART 6: AFRICA

Rising Africa Faces a Critical Test

Jennifer Cooke

Terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa

Thomas M. Sanderson

PART 7: INSIDE THE PENTAGON

Fiscal Futures, U.S. Forces, and Strategic Choices

Mark Cancian and Todd Harrison

The Battle over How to Save Defense Acquisition

Andrew Hunter

PART 8: EVOLVING THREATS AND CAPABILITIES

Space and Security

A Conversation with Sean O'Keefe

Nuclear Deterrence in a Disordered World

Rebecca K.C. Hersman

The Need for Global Zero

Sharon Squassoni

Missile Defense and Deterrence 

Thomas Karako

Disrupting the Cyber Status Quo

Denise E. Zheng

PART 9: ENERGY AND SECURITY

Implications of Sustained Low Oil Prices

Frank A. Verrastro

Implications of a Low-Carbon Future

Sarah O. Ladislaw

Efficacy of Sanctions on Energy-Producing Countries

Edward C. Chow

PART 10: HUMAN RIGHTS, HUMAN SECURITY, AND PUBLIC DIPLOMACY

Responding to the Closing of Democratic Space

Shannon N. Green

Soft Power and Security

Daniel Runde

After the Ebola Catastrophe

J. Stephen Morrison

Food Insecurity, Conflict, and Stability

Kimberly Flowers

Normalization and Human Rights in Cuba

Carl Mecham

Winning the War of Ideas

Farah Pandith and Juan Zarate 

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