Institute for the Study of War
October 6, 2015
Afghanistan may again become a safe haven for the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Taliban factions have markedly increased the pace of operations throughout Afghanistan following the September 28 offensive against Kunduz city. The increased tempo of Taliban operations is partly a demonstration of power by Mullah Akhtar Mansour aimed at silencing dissident commanders, as he confirmed in an October 2 interview. Senior Al Qaeda leader Hussam Abdul Raouf urged Taliban dissidents to pledge allegiance to Mullah Akthar Mansour, possibly showing their coordination. A prolonged offensive and consolidation of Taliban control in northern Afghanistan could position elements loyal to Mullah Akhtar Mansour for follow on assaults on several provincial capitals and put Taliban elements within 150 miles of Kabul. The Taliban will likely conduct increased attacks in Takhar, Badakhshan, and Baghlan provinces to extend the Northern offensive. These provinces contain key transit routes that the Taliban were able to blockade during their offensive on Kunduz city, stymieing nearly one thousand ANSF reinforcements sent from Kabul and Badakhshan provinces. The Taliban will likely try to gain and hold a permanent presence in Takhar, Badakhshan, and Baghlan provinces to consolidate their control in the north before attempting to advance on Kabul. The offensives in Jowzjan, Faryab, and Sar-e Pul, and Farah provinces may be follow on assaults by Mullah Mansour’s faction as he continues to consolidate power within the Taliban ranks.
ANSF forces will face a growing challenge to their counter offensive. The ongoing northern offensive by Mansour’s Taliban faction has drawn thousands of ANSF reinforcements previously stationed in other areas. Mullah Mansour’s competitors from rival Taliban factions will likely attempt to launch their own offensives to maintain relevancy and establish legitimacy among the Taliban ranks. Increased attacks by these rival mTaliban factions against ANSF forces are anticipated in Helmand Province, Kandahar Province, and Zabul Province. Meanwhile ISIS’s Afghanistan affiliate conducted an IED attack on ANSF forces in Nangarhar province, killing several civilians. The attack demonstrates the threat ISIS poses to ANSF forces in Nangarhar, a threat highlighted by General John Campbell in his testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on October 6.
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