By Lt Gen Prakash Katoch
19 Oct , 2015
As Nawaz Sharif heads to Washington with his ISI approved new NSA, Naseer Khan Janjua, the outcome is already known. Obama has already given his preamble that Pakistan is an important player in Afghanistan. It is not material whether the Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kunduz was bombed accidentally and apologized for as collateral damage or bombed deliberately after the USSF ascertained that a Pakistani ISI operative was stationed in the hospital seized and styled into a Taliban operational headquarters.
20,984 American’s dead and wounded in Afghanistan since the US invasion of 2001, most because of Pakistani proxies…
By virtue of a quirk of fate because of Putin’s decisive intervention and surgical strikes against the ISIS, Pakistan’s value to Obama appears to have gone up. It is but logical that if the stay of US-NATO troops in Afghanistan has been extended, the route of their supply will continue to be via the port of Karachi and all the way up through land route crisscrossing Pakistani territory. So the chances are that Pakistan will continue to be given a free hand in Afghanistan both by Obama and China even as latter is emphasizing the need to rebuild Afghanistan.
With 20,984 American’s dead and wounded in Afghanistan since the US invasion of 2001, most because of Pakistani proxies and double game, a stage should have been reached when the US took a call on its support to Pakistan but this is unlikely in the Obama Administration for whom the turn of events in Syria and Yemen are becoming a case of prestige issue. If Obama really wants to help Afghanistan, mere extension of US troops in that country actually is a side show that will hardly help curb the increasing instability.
The western media acknowledges that the spread of Taliban across areas of Afghanistan is more than in any point of time in 2001 and that Afghan security forces are suffering record casualties. Aside for taking the credit to boost the ANSF since 2009, which in any case has been more numerical, what Obama needed to do was put the brakes on Pakistani support to the Taliban and covert investment of Pakistani regular troops and Haqqanis into Afghanistan.
For the US who commandeered Pakistan as a front-line ally in GWOT on the threat of otherwise bombing the country into ‘stone age’ should hardly be a problem, Pakistan’s nuclear bogey notwithstanding.
Pakistan continue with her state policy of terror despite stoppage of financial aid by the US and economic sanctions are imposed…
It is not without reason Michael Hughes stated in July 2010, “Nine years, nearly $300 billion dollars and 1900 dead coalition soldiers later, the US has officially verified that the entire war effort has been focused on the wrong side of the mountains”, Admiral Mike Mullen with Leon Panetta by his side testified that Pakistani intelligence is using Haqqanis and other extremist groups as its proxies inside Afghanistan and the attack on the US embassy in Kabul too had Pakistani hand, Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State messaged Pakistan to squeeze the Haqqanis saying Pakistan could not keep snakes in its backyard to strike its neighbours, and Ralph Peters has gone on record to say “Pakistani Generals are scum sucking liars”.
So how much is enough for the Obama administration?
Actully, rather than the threat of conventional bombings, the threat of economic bombing would suffice – make economic and military aid contingent upon Pakistan stopping export of terrorism and blocking all support to Taliban, AQIS and the like. Pakistani military would understand that China gives no free lunches and should Pakistan continue with her state policy of terror despite stoppage of financial aid by the US and economic sanctions are imposed, the country may degenerate to the state like that of North Korea despite Chinese support.
Granted that having spent some $6 trillion on the war effort on Iraq and Afghanistan and 57,694 dead and wounded, the US war against ISIS too had reportedly cost $2.7 billion by July 2015; $9 million per day. In fact, citing Pentagon sources Edwin Mora stated that the nearly one year old US military campaign against the ISIS had already cost American taxpayers more than $3 billion. Granted that the US has gone in for controlled engagement of regions from the background by reducing direct military engagement but where was the sense in acting against the ISIS after letting it mingle in a 5-7 million civil population. Russia’s smart engagement appears doing a better job.
Pakistan and US are at a juncture where distrust is mounting. Majority of the American population are definitely worried about terrorism and partnering with terrorism generating nations like Pakistan.
A cross-section believes that US foreign policy is a case of lack of forethought while others believe there is a method in the madness – like destroy, rule, rebuild getting jobs for American companies, rearm boosting weapon sales etc. The same appears to be happening to Afghanistan.
Though both Obama and Pakistan appear to be frozen in time, it is up to Obama to decide what legacy he wants to leave behind with the countdown of his tenure having begun. Surely he is not captive of his intelligence agencies, as Nawaz Sharif is. The hybrid game in Iraq-Syria has taken a historic turn and if some reports are to be believed the tide is turning in Yemen too despite Saudi bombings and Pakistani Mujahid battalions spearheading the Saudi ground attacks against Yemen. Take this with a pinch of salt but a report from Tehran says that Yemeni army and popular forces hit a strategic military air base in Asir province in southern Saudi Arabia with Scud missiles, killing many and destroying over two dozen F-15 fighters and Apache helicopters.
Such reports have not been corroborated by any other source and could well be propaganda. But surely, the conflict in the region has taken new turn with Russian intervention. The arming and support of radical organizations too is unabated. For example the Hezbollah alone is estimated to have 40,000 to 50,000 rockets plus scud missiles.
Obama is not Donald Trump but there would be many Americans who are awakened to the conservative thought of reviewing US policy towards Pakistan. The fact is that Pakistan and US are at a juncture where distrust is mounting. Majority of the American population are definitely worried about terrorism and partnering with terrorism generating nations like Pakistan. Even as Obama can’t stand for US President a third time, it would be difficult for him to convince the public at large that by continuing with existing policies, mainland US will remain safe from more 9/11s, and next ones may be much more vicious.
More significantly, the US-Pakistan hybrid war in Afghanistan has no guarantee any more to run the way as planned. While Obama and Pakistan appear frozen in time and Obama may not reverse course, hopefully his successor would take a call if there is a better way to further national interests than plunging Afghanistan into complete chaos.
© Copyright 2015 Indian Defence Review
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