By Gp Capt AK Sachdev
27 Oct , 2015
As in the case of the US, for India too, satellite data and its associated connectivity touch every aspect of daily life. As India’s space programme blooms in keeping with ISRO’s Space Vision 2025, its contribution to the national economy will grow from its already impressive levels. The continued wellbeing of India’s space assets including ground stations as well as space-based assets, assumes grave importance in this light. There is also the concern for continued ability to exploit space for non-military purposes. Perhaps it is time to focus on the vulnerabilities of our space assets and the conceivable threats that they may face in the future. A deliberate approach to this aspect would then help strengthen a national space security policy.
After the success of MOM, ISRO plans to revisit Mars in 2018…
When appraising India’s space endeavour, it is hard to resist the temptation to start with an achievement so proximate in time and so vividly etched in public perception, that of Mangalyaan (literally interpreted as Mars Vehicle). On September 25, 2014, India became the fourth space-faring nation after Russia, US and Europe (through the European Space Agency or ESA) to place a space vehicle in orbit around Mars. India has many reasons to be proud of Mangalyaan; perhaps the most prominent is that it was placed into Mars orbit in India’s maiden attempt. Before this, only ESA’s Mars mission was successful in the first attempt. Also called Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM), the spacecraft was launched on November 05, 2013, by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO).
Having begun half a century before the Mangalyaan launch, India’s space endeavour has evolved magnificently. This commentary briefly reviews the evolution of Indian space programme and contextualises space deterrence in the backdrop of the India-China rivalry.
From Germination to Mellowing
This section must be preceded by a qualifying statement that it does not purport to be a comprehensive chronicle describing the evolution of the Indian space programme but only outlines facts and figures necessary to understand the rationale driving its trajectory. The saga of India’s space endeavour began with Dr Vikram Sarabhai. Having obtained his doctorate from Cavendish Laboratory (UK) in May 1947, he returned to India to establish the Physical Research Laboratory (PRL) in his residence.
It took almost a decade of development for the first successful experimental Satellite Launch Vehicle (SLV-3) in 1980…
He was its Director until 1971 and, during his directorial tenure, drafted the proposal for India’s participation in the International Geophysical Year (IGY) slated for 1957-1958. The Sputnik was launched during the IGY and changed the way Indian public and Dr Sarabhai perceived space research. Those were the days of the US and USSR indulging in a desperate steeplechase with the moon as the finishing point. Praiseworthy credit is due to Dr Sarabhai for fine-tuning India’s space ambition into an agenda driven by pragmatic and developmental impulses rather than by envy and craving. He sent a proposal to the government in 1961 for a modest but focussed space programme oriented towards development. As a result, the Indian National Committee for Space Research (INCOSPAR) was set up under the Atomic Energy Authority in 1962 with the mandate to advise the government on space research, promote international collaboration and to participate in international activities.
INCOSPAR went about setting up the Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (TERLS). India’s space programme began at Thumba under primordial conditions. An oft-quoted circumstance is that of Indian rocket parts being transported by bicycle; allied pictures can be found in books dealing with Indian space programme. India’s first launch was that of a home-built version of the French sounding rocket Centaure with the help of American National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and French Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES). The launch took place on November 21, 1963, five decades before the Mangalyaan launch.
Unfortunately, its historic significance was overshadowed by President Kennedy’s assassination the following day. On Sarabhai’s proposal, the launch centre at Thumba was turned into an international one and it was renamed International Equatorial Sounding Rocket facility with NASA, CNES and the Soviet Hydro Meteorological Service as partners. Of special significance is the ambivalence in the selection of partners, a reflection of India’s level of maturity. The first fully indigenous sounding rocket, Rohini 75 was launched in November 1975 with rapid advances in sounding rocket design. From the 75 mm diameter of Rohini 75, the programme progressed to 1,000 mm diameter with four stages.
By the late 1960s, it became evident that the space programme under INCOSPAR was reaching adolescence and had to be given free reins by its parent body, the AEC. On August 15, 1969, ISRO was established as the functional entity with the Space Commission being set up as a policy-making body under the Department of Space which was under the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO).
Dr Sarabhai had the vision to realise the benefits of space-based oceanography, geology, hydrology and cartography for Indian consumption but was realistic in his reckoning that an indigenous space applications programme would take a long time to fructify. He embarked upon creating a bank of scientists and technicians to spread the space programme in extent and capability. Unfortunately for India, he passed away suddenly on December 30, 1971, possibly consumed by his passion, working 20 hours a day, a routine aptly described by his widow, Mrinalini Sarabhai as, “always burning the candle at both ends.”
The Mars mission was a big boost to the Indian space aspirations…
However, during his lifetime, he focussed his energies on laying the foundation of an Indian space programme that aimed at producing satellites for development, education and remote sensing while working towards indigenisation in the space arena. By 1972, when Satish Dhawan was appointed Chairman of ISRO, the Thumba facility employed 3,000 personnel. The development of a launch vehicle, elemental requisite for putting a satellite into orbit, began in the early 1970s but it was evident that it would take considerable time to get an indigenous launch vehicle equipped to go.
On the other hand, putting together a satellite proved to be a simpler task. An agreement with USSR paved the way for an Indian satellite to be placed in orbit around the Earth and three years later, Aryabhatta, named after the fifth century astronomer, was launched from Kapustin Yar in the USSR aboard a Cosmos 3M rocket. For the next five years, the Aryabhatta helped study stellar X-rays, neutron and gamma radiations from solar flares and particles and radiation flux in the Earth’s atmosphere.
It took almost a decade of development for the first successful experimental Satellite Launch Vehicle (SLV-3) in 1980 to mark India’s debut on the space arena. It was a four-stage, solid fuel, 17-tonne vehicle capable of putting a 40-kg payload in low earth orbit (160 to 2,000 km from the Earth). After two developmental launches in 1987 and 1988, the Augmented SLV or ASLV labelled ASLV-D3, was launched successfully in 1992, further consolidating Indian vehicle technology and giving the nation cause to rejoice and ISRO to revel in its success. Developed as a low-cost intermediate vehicle to demonstrate and validate critical technologies, it was a 40-tonne craft with a payload capacity of 150 kg up to 400 km circular orbits.
The ASLV provided valuable inputs for the successful development of the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) which had its first successful launch in 1994. With a lift-off weight of 295 tonnes, it can place a 1,600 kg satellite in sun-synchronous polar orbit or a 1,050 kg satellite in Geo-synchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). The first and third stages are solid fuel and the second and fourth liquid. The Chandrayaan mission to the Moon launched in 2008 and the Mangalyaan both used PSLV variants.
The first flight of the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) took place in 2001. With a lift-off weight of 414 tonnes, the Mark I/II GSLV can place a 2,500-kg satellite into GTO. Its first stage is solid, second liquid and the third cryogenic. The GSLV Mark III is a 630-tonne vehicle with payload capacity of up to 5,000 kg. The first and second stages are carried forth from the PSLV design while the third stage is cryogenic which is much lighter and therefore can travel farther away from Earth. India’s quest for cryogenic technology deserves special mention here.
Nuclear deterrence and space deterrence aren’t really parallel concepts…
In December 1982, India had formed a cryogenic study team to focus on the development of an engine which could generate a thrust of ten tonnes. The team reached the realistic conclusion that indigenous development of such engines would pose major technological challenges. India decided to import cryogenic engines from Russia to expedite its GSLV programme and in 1991, ISRO signed a $120 million contract with Glavkosmos of Russia for seven cryogenic rocket engines along with a complete transfer of technology. ISRO officials said India had to approach Russia because no other country was willing share this technology fearing it would be used for military purposes. Under the agreement, Indian scientists spent 15 months in Russia but were not given access to any significant technology related to cryogenic engines.
Meanwhile, in July 1993, the US arm-twisted Russia into stalling the engine supply saying it flouted the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). The US sanctions on ISRO and Glavkosmos were a huge setback to the GSLV programme but in the long run proved to be a blessing in disguise. Forced to find a home-grown solution, ISRO fast-tracked research at the Liquid Propulsion Systems Centre (LPSC) at Mahendragiri in Tamil Nadu and was able to test an Indian Cryogenic Engine (ICE) successfully in 2009. However, on April 15, 2010, the first GSLV launch with ICE plunged into the Bay of Bengal within minutes after take-off from Sriharikota. In January 2014, with the launch of GSLV-D5, India joined the club of countries like the US, Russia, Japan, France and China which have successfully developed their own cryogenic engines. A suborbital flight test of the GSLV-III launcher, with a passive cryogenic third stage, was successfully carried out on December 18, 2014, and was used to test a crew module on a suborbital trajectory.
After the success of MOM, ISRO plans to revisit Mars in 2018, possibly with a lander and rover to conduct more experiments. According to S Shiva Kumar, Director, ISRO Satellite Centre, “We will be able to take the Mars-2 mission after the second mission to the Moon dubbed as Chandrayaan-2 to be launched in 2016 with our own lander and rover. This mission will help us develop a separate lander and rover for the Red Planet.”
Qualitatively speaking, the Mars mission was a big boost to the Indian space aspirations as it changed the perception of the global space-faring community towards India. ICE, the cryogenic engine used in the launch vehicle has been developed totally indigenously and India is proud to be one of the few countries with the technology. However, India still lags behind in the capacity of its launch vehicles.
The European Union has proposed an International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities…
According to Dr Radhakrishnan, Chairman, ISRO, “China has launch vehicles with 5.5 tonnes capacity, Europe has an 11-tonne capacity launch vehicle, US has 13 tonne capacity launch vehicles and Russia has nearly ten tonne capacity vehicles.” He reiterates that India’s long-term target is to make a launch vehicle with a 12-tonne capacity. This number-brandishing is reminiscent of the Cold War era when the Super Powers, followed by others, embarked on a race to amass nuclear capability. Despite the carrying capacity of launch vehicles currently being discussed only in terms of how big a satellite or craft it can carry into outer space or through interplanetary voids, the very fact that space vehicles have a military potential, renders them akin to nuclear weapons. There is also the issue of satellites being subject to peaceful as well as military exploitation.
Space Deterrence
According to Karl Mueller, “Nuclear deterrence and space deterrence aren’t really parallel concepts. Indeed, it is not entirely clear that space deterrence is a very useful construct – we do not speak of air or naval deterrence as distinct categories, after all, because of the degree to which conventional warfare in different domains is usually intermingled. Military space activities, too, are intimately connected to operations and capabilities in the other domains.” The similarities and dissimilarities between nuclear and space deterrence notwithstanding, it is not hard to visualise the effects of militarisation of space on the manner in which space capability is becoming an instrument of national power. Self-evidently, space deterrence is directed at satellites and other space-based systems. In addition, it also consists of space capabilities for accomplishing the ends of deterrence.
Since December 1967, the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, has been in place with over 100 countries having ratified the treaty and more than two dozen others having signed but not yet ratified the agreement. Declaring celestial objects to be “the common heritage of mankind”, it bans only the deployment of weapons of mass destruction in outer space. There are several initiatives to prevent the militarisation of space.
The commercial potential of our space capability cannot be ignored…
The European Union has proposed an International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities. The Treaty on Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects was first proposed by China and Russia in February 2008 as an international legally binding treaty that would outlaw the weaponisation of space. After several draft amendments since then, on October 30, 2014, at the 69th session of the UN General Assembly, the First Committee (Disarmament and International Security), approving the text by a recorded vote of 126 in favour to 4 against (Israel, Ukraine, United States, Georgia), with 46 abstentions, asked the Assembly to urge an early start to substantive work on the updated draft treaty. Japan that backed the EU code is, “committed to comprehensively examining and discussing various issues related to the Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space,” and has called for careful examination of i.e., is opposed to the draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space. Future years will show what texture and acceptability the final treaty achieves.
In this context, the possession of satellites and space stations by the big nations assumes as much importance as Anti Satellite (ASAT) capabilities. ASAT development started in the 1950s with US and USSR pioneering it. Initially, the main focus was on ground-based missiles but since then, many innovative projects have emerged. In November 2014, space agencies and amateur satellite watchers christened a mysterious Russian satellite as Object 2014-28E. The object was launched in May 2014 but no announcement preceded its launch leading to the air of ambiguity around it. Naturally, its sighting has rejuvenated fears about space-based ASATs, a capability so far demonstrated by US, Russia and China ostensibly for the purpose of destroying satellites that posed the danger of falling uncontrollably to the Earth’s surface.
Commercial Use of Space
As an adjunct to the peaceful and military uses of space, we can add commercial spacecraft, recently in the news for wrong reasons. On October 28, an Antares rocket built by Orbital Sciences Corporation crashed onto its launch pad followed by a Virgin Galactic spaceship breaking up on engine start up a couple of days later. Both were commercial ventures. While the first was carrying two tonnes of cargo to the International Space Station (ISS), the latter was a test flight of a space plane aimed at carrying space passengers commercially at a whopping $2,50,000 per head. It is worth a mention here that the commercial potential of our space capability cannot be ignored.
Of all the space-faring nations, China occupies the most prominent place in India’s psyche…
India-China Rivalry
Of all the space-faring nations, China occupies the most prominent place in India’s psyche. Its economic might, its exertions to surround India strategically, its inroads into the politico-strategic consciousness of our neighbours and its furtive transgressions into our border territorial space, all supplement each other into an uneasy absence of hostilities. India’s stealing a march in space by its Mars initiative would definitely be viewed by China with rancour.
China’s performance in space is laudable. It has successfully recovered an experimental spacecraft that flew around the Moon. India’s announcement of a plan to do so in December came a few hours before the Chinese craft landed back on Earth on November 01 and is planning to send a spacecraft to the Moon in 2017 which will return to Earth after collecting soil samples. Only the United States and Russia have been able to perform this feat so far. China’s lunar exploration programme has already launched a pair of orbiting lunar probes and last year, landed a craft on the Moon with a rover onboard. China has also hinted at a possible manned mission to the Moon at a future date if officials decide to combine the human spaceflight and lunar exploration programmes.
Officially, China is insistent that its space programme is for peaceful purposes but the US Defence Department has highlighted China’s increasing space capabilities and said Beijing is pursuing a variety of activities aimed at preventing its adversaries from using space-based assets during a crisis. Russia has likewise been disturbed by the tenor and texture of China’s space programme. According to Konstantin Sivkov, Deputy Head of the Moscow-based think-tank, Academy of Geopolitical Problems, “China has conducted two anti-satellite tests very recently, using its advanced laser technology. This was done during a recent exercise of the People’s Liberation Army. The anti-satellite exercises were conducted using laser weapons”.
Another significant bit of news is that, at the Zuhai Air Show, the model of a small satellite platform was unveiled. A company representative of China Aerospace Science & Industry Corporation (CASIC) is reported to have stated that a truck mobile small satellite launcher has been tested twice.
Several initiatives aimed at preventing arms in outer space are currently being exercised by the global comity of nations….
All the above developments in China need to be seen in the context of a report in Xinhua according to which, in June 2014, President Xi Jinping, who is also Chairman of the PLA Central Military Commission (CMC), told People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) to upgrade and accelerate its integration with the country’s space programme to keep up with what was the main goal of advanced air forces around the world. Earlier, in April, the Centre for National Defence Policy, a part of the PLA’s Academy of Military Sciences, had released a report in April which said that in the last 15 or so years, security threats from space had increased in China. There is no word yet from China on how far along its air force is in its space military programme but in September, Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun reported that the PLA had established an aerospace force. The branch, which is expected to focus on military operations in space, would be the army’s fifth branch after the PLA’s ground, air, naval and strategic missile force. The new force would be complemented by an aerospace office under the CMC, it added. But the PLA has not confirmed the report.
Conclusion
Several initiatives aimed at preventing arms in outer space are currently being exercised by the global comity of nations. However, if the nuclear imbroglio of the past is to be heeded, a similar race in space appears to be possible, if not inevitable. The immense advantage of air power in military conflict is unarguable. The distension of aerial warfare into aerospace warfare has already happened and the use of space-based communications, weapon systems and surveillance platforms is a reality. Moreover, space technologies provide means to advance a nation’s scientific, social and economic interests thereby contributing to national growth and national power.
On November 12, the US satellite weather network was reported to have suffered an electronic attack, forcing cyber-security teams to “seal-off data vital to disaster planning, aviation, shipping and scores of other crucial uses” and leading to a disruption of US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s data feed for weather forecasts. Although the attack had a small impact on weather forecasts, it highlighted a vulnerability in satellite systems that reaches far beyond the meteorological community.
As in the case of the US, for India too, satellite data and its associated connectivity touch every aspect of daily life. As India’s space programme blooms in keeping with ISRO’s Space Vision 2025, its contribution to the national economy will grow from its already impressive levels. The continued wellbeing of India’s space assets including ground stations as well as space-based assets, assumes grave importance in this light. There is also the concern for continued ability to exploit space for non-military purposes. Perhaps it is time to focus on the vulnerabilities of our space assets and the conceivable threats that they may face in the future. A deliberate approach to this aspect would then help strengthen a national space security policy.
Of all the space-faring nations, China occupies the most prominent place in India’s psyche…
© Copyright 2015 Indian Defence Review
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