BEIJING FACTOR PLAYING OUT IN KATHMANDU

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Thursday, 08 October 2015 | Claude Arpi | i

Even as New Delhi is engaged in tackling the anti-India sentiment that has gripped Kathmandu, China must be enjoying the situation. Pro-China voices in Nepal’s establishment are being more increasingly heard

There is another dimension to the present crisis between Nepal and India: The China factor. Recently, Nepalese Ambassador to India, Mr Deep Kumar Upadhyay, asked Delhi not to “push it to the wall” by blocking petroleum and other essential supplies, otherwise the landlocked country would have to find alternatives. He did not pronounce the ‘C’ word, but said, “…despite logistical difficulties”.

Although India had assured Nepal that the present difficult situation will be resolved “at the earliest”, Mr Upadhyay asked, “They (India) should give a time frame. Does it mean hours, weeks or months?”

Let us hope that the constitutional issues will soon be resolved to the satisfaction of all (and not only a section of the Nepalese population). In the meantime, China is enjoying the situation.

On September 21, Beijing was quick to congratulate Kathmandu on the promulgation of its new Constitution. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei stated, “China attaches great importance to the China-Nepal ties, and is willing to continue the friendly cooperation between the two nations.” He added that China was ready to provide “as much help as it can for the economic and social development of Nepal”. In this atmosphere of ‘Nepali-Chini bhai bhai’, the relations between Nepal and Tibet are upbeat too.

On the day the new Constitution was promulgated, Mr Dadhiram Bhandari, an official in the Nepalese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, gave an interview to Xinhua. He remembered that when he first arrived in Lhasa in 2011, he thought that “Tibet was a marginalised and a primitive place, that was both barren and under-developed”. Then, his image of Tibet changed within the blink of an eye. Mr Bhandari recalled that during his years in the Tibetan capital, “every four months, I noticed significant changes. …Development of Tibet is incredible. Despite the topographical harshness and climactic conditions, the Chinese Government has made development a reality. We have so many things to learn from them”.

Like most Nepalese officials, he lavishly praised China for its role in Tibet. He said, “Tibet has taken a heightened step in development whereas Nepal is still crawling, with political instability.”

The Nepalese official conveniently forgets that ‘stability’ was the main theme of the 50th anniversary of the creation of the Tibetan Autonomous Region. All senior Chinese leaders stressed again and again on stability. Why? Simply because Tibet is not stable! The Nepalese are blind to this.

Mr Bhandari, like most of his colleagues, has been taken in by the Chinese propaganda. But the fact remains that Nepal and Tibet (and China) are getting closer by the day, at a time when the relations between Kathmandu and New Delhi are rather frosty.

Mr Naindra Prasad Upadhyay, Nepal’s Commerce and Supplies Secretary, who was earlier posted as Consul General in Tibet, sings the same song. “Tibet has done an impressive job with education and health development. Even in rural areas, we can find every facility. Living standard of people is high.”

His years in Tibet were “a wonderful experience full of hospitality and cooperation”, he recalls.

Clearly enamoured of China, Nepal is eying the tourists’ waves invading Tibet (17 million are expected in 2015). Kathmandu calculates that it could greatly benefit if only 10 per cent of Tibet’s tourists could be diverted to Nepal.

Mr Rajesh Kaji Shrestha, president of Nepal’s Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in an interview with Xinhua affirmed, “We need to develop a strong cooperation with Tibet, especially with the nearest city [like] Lhasa, for trade and tourism.”

Today, Nepal gets some eight lakh tourists every year; more than 15 per cent of these are Chinese. But the proportion of the latter is increasing fast (the number of Chinese has risen from 46,360 in 2010 to 123,805 in 2014). The Thamel area has become a mini Chinatown, with Chinese signboards, Chinese restaurants and Chinese-owned hotels. A Xinhua article regretted, “The April 25 earthquake has diminished [the inflow of Chinese tourist in] Nepal, [which is] eager to draw more tourists and boost the economy.”

What does it mean for Delhi? First of all, it signifies that more Chinese infrastructure will be built in India’s backdoor. Take the example of the Kyirong landport, which should soon be formally opened. China Tibet Online says: “The Kyirong Port enjoys a long history of being the largest land trading port between Tibet and Nepal. Many shop-owners have expressed their hope that the opening of the port can help them get more involved in the border trade. …A regular coordination system had been set up.”

What will be the outcome of the opening of a new port between Tibet and Nepal? The inflow of Chinese tourists and goods will drastically increase, but in three or four years, when the railway line reaches Kyirong from Lhasa, it will turn into exponential growth.

The new infrastructure on both sides of the border will not be only for tourists but also commodities, including oil, food products, etc. In the long-term, it signifies that Tibet (read China) can replace India as the main supplier. This will have serious strategic implications for India.

On September 29, on the occasion of the second China Tibet International Tourism and Culture Expo, Mr Dinesh Kumar Thapaliya, Nepal’s Secretary of Culture, Tourism and Aviation asserted, “The Nepal Government’s stance towards the ‘One China’ policy is firm and unwavering; we will not allow, under any circumstances, any force to use our territory to encroach on the interests of our northern neighbour.”

According to Xinhua, Mr Thapaliya “fondly” recalled that Nepal and China have a long history of friendly relations. “Both sides have the same values based on the Buddha’s teachings and the towering Himalaya provides an important link between the two civilisations.” Thapaliya added, “China and Nepal share similar ideas and values and are geographically close.”

Similar values and ideals? Does it mean that China will soon become a ‘democracy’ like Nepal? Will the Chinese state adopt Buddhist teachings?

The Nepalese Minister called for an improvement or the inter-connection via land and air between China and Nepal, “in particular Tibet and Nepal”. Mr Thapaliya recalled, “In April this year, Nepal suffered a devastating earthquake, but thanks to the strength of the Nepalese people and the powerful support of a friendly nation, normal life has been restored in Nepal.”

Reversing the trend of growing Chinese influence in Nepal is not an easy task for India, especially in the present situation. South Block must put deeper thoughts into its Nepal policy, otherwise oil products will soon flow from the Tibetan plateau to Kathmandu.