America: What if China is Japan Times 10?

posted on 14 October 2015

http://econintersect.com/pages/contributors/contributor.php?post=201510140009&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily+Global+Economic+Intersection+Newsletter+Feed&utm_content=Daily+Global+Economic+Intersection+Newsletter+Feed+CID_25b520def0c2840bcb07ae087ff4fcfc&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=America+What+if+China+is+Japan+Times+10

Written by Frank Li

The 20th century was clearly America's! But who will have the 21st century and who deserves it? China, unless America changes as I have suggested (Solution for America (Version 3))!

In order for America to have any chance in her head-to-head competition with China, America must understand China much better (America: What is China, Anyway?) as well as herself (What is America, Anyway?). In this post, I will further explain to my fellow Americans what China is ("Communist China", Really?), by an easily understandable analogy: China is Japan times 10!

1. Introduction

During the last century, America faced two serious challenges from Japan:

Attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941.

Japan rapidly surged back from the ruins of WWII to become the #2 economy in the world, threatening the #1 America (Japan's 80s America Buying Spree).

In both cases, America prevailed! Now, China is said to be well positioned to unseat America as the #1 economy in the world. Will China fail in overtaking America, just as Japan did in the 1980s (China as number one? Remember Japan in the '80s)?

Highly unlikely! I believe China will not only unseat America as the #1 economy by 2030, but also continue to further distance herself from America after 2030, with no end in sight! Why? Because China is Japan times 10!

2. Japan vs. America

Japan and America could not be more different, as highlighted below:

Bottom line: no matter how hard the Japanese work and how "relaxed" Americans are, America's overwhelming richness in natural resources has won the head-on competition with Japan, twice, so far!

Unfortunately, most of America's advantages over Japan will no longer be true in our competition with China! Additionally, China has some key advantages over America ...

3. Japan vs. America vs. China

Here is a high-level comparison of Japan, America, and China:

I use a numerical scale (1 - bad; 10 - good) to quantitatively illustrate, very roughly and unscientifically, the differences among the three countries.

Let me briefly explain the seven comparing aspects one by one:

History: China has a longer one than both Japan and, of course, America.

Land: China is similar to America in size, while Japan is tiny in comparison.

Natural resources: China, in terms of richness, is closer to America than to Japan.

Racial harmony: China is closer to Japan than to America, which is already deeply in trouble, with the far worse yet to come (e.g. a la Trump).

Religious harmony: China is closer to Japan than to America, which is fundamentally getting worse (e.g. Christianity vs. Islam).

Work ethic: In rising out of poverty, China is closer to Japan than to America.

Political system: China (i.e. "state capitalism"), although far from the ideal 10 (Towards an Ideal Form of Government), is performing far better than any democracy, including both Japan and America!

4. Discussion

It's very important for the world, especially America, to truly understand China, as well as Japan and America, particularly their recent histories.

Simply put, the China "miracle" over the past 25 years is at least as significant as the Japan "miracle" for the 25 years from 1869 to 1894. So in terms of significance and lasting implications, the China miracle might be even more astonishing than the Japan miracle.

Here is an excerpt from a previous post (Twenty-Five Years in Recent Human History) about Japan (1869-1894):

Japan was literally a copy of China for thousands of years until 1868, when Japan begun the Meiji Restoration, while China continued to decline. Japan modernized itself so much and so fast that the "little" Japan launched, and won, a war against the "mighty" China in 1894 (First Sino-Japanese War): Japan destroyed the Chinese Navy's North Fleet and occupied a part of China (and Korea)! East Asia was irrevocably changed ...

Here is an excerpt from the same post about China (1978-2003):

This is certainly one of the brightest periods in human history: China lifted some 400 million people out of poverty and became the third largest economy in the world, thanks to "state capitalism."

Needless to say, China has been even more amazing since 2004, while both America and Japan have experienced a precipitous decline.

Here is an excerpt from the same post about America (1989-2014):

This is the period of China's astronomical rise, which, not coincidentally, coincides with America's steep decline, especially after the turn of the 21st century. In other words, China has been rising as communism falls and capitalism thrives there, while the U.S. has been declining as capitalism falls and democracy thrives here.

Very importantly, China has had little imperialism throughout her 5000-year history! In contrast, Imperial Japan has lost her preeminent position because of imperialism, while Democratic Imperialism has been adding to America's decline for decades.

Bottom line: America must truly understand China better, and get its own house in order before it's too late!

5. Summary

Below are four key points Americans must understand:

Capitalism: It is the best thing ever happened to mankind. Capitalism works wherever it's allowed, even in communist China.

Democracy: It has been a proven failure throughout human history. Why? Democracy leads to socialism, the arch-rival of capitalism.

America: Its prosperity comes from capitalism as well as America's richness in natural resources, despite democracy! America can no longer afford democracy, as we practice it today!

China: State capitalism is still capitalism!

The image below highlights the key differences between China and America (as well as Japan) today.

To learn more about China and its remarkable progress beyond the imagination of most Americans today, read: China, Connected!

6. Closing

China is no Japan - Today's China is vastly superior to Japan, ever! But is China really 10 times better than Japan? Perhaps not! But you get the idea, hopefully!

China is awake, finally, and Napoléon was right!