The clincher that was the n-deal

 

 M. K. Narayanan

August 15, 2015 

 

ReutersOf all his achievements in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), Dr. Singh will be remembered for the nuclear deal. File Photo

The India-U.S. nuclear deal signed 10 years ago is an exemplar of India’s recognition of strategic patience and the importance of building partnerships and has brought in handsome returns

As India celebrates yet another Independence Day, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on another foreign visit — this time to the United Arab Emirates, intending to sign a clutch of agreements, including one on counter-terrorism cooperation — it might be worthwhile to ponder over how far India has progressed on the world stage. Members of the younger generation would be unfamiliar, for instance, of the kind of trials and privations that India confronted during the last quarter of the twentieth century. This was the period following the 1974 peaceful nuclear explosion and the 1998 nuclear tests, when India was ostracised by many countries and faced a host of sanctions. From this dark period, India could emerge into a new dawn thanks to the efforts of Indian policy-makers during the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-Manmohan Singh years. India has since been transformed into a major global power, and a candidate for permanent membership in the U.N. Security Council (UNSC). M.K. Narayanan

The Iran-India contrast

Succeeding against exceptional odds is a quality India derives from its ancient civilisation. Today, as the nation enters its 69th year, it may not be out of place, hence, to make a comparison with similar situations faced by two ancient civilisations — India and Iran — and the different outcomes that resulted from those situations. In July this year, Iran and the P5+1 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, China and Germany) reached a nuclear agreement, ending a period of ostracism and sanctions of the West toward Iran. July also marked the 10th anniversary of the iconic India-U.S. civil nuclear deal. However, the objective and scope of the two deals could not have been more different.

The Iran deal curtails and constricts Iran’s capabilities as a nuclear power. The India-U.S. nuclear deal, on the other hand, liberated India in many ways, effectively dismantled the edifice of sanctions, and has resulted in India being recognised as a state with advanced nuclear technology — a euphemism for a nuclear weapons state.

The Iran nuclear agreement weakened Iran’s nuclear programme, and denied it the capability of becoming a nuclear ‘threshold’ state in the foreseeable future. Restrictions on Iran include a freeze on its nuclear research programme; preventing it from producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon (either through Uranium enrichment or through the Plutonium route) at its nuclear facilities for at least 10 years; ensuring that it would not have recourse to advanced centrifuges for at least a decade; restricting its store of enriched uranium to levels below that needed for a nuclear device; and blocking its plutonium programme.


“The India-U.S. nuclear deal, as against this, was truly path-breaking in terms of its favourable impact. Ten years down the road, the results are evident for all to see. ”

While India did not host any event to mark the deal, Washington brought together some of the movers and shakers from both sides, highlighting its transformational nature and how it was helping to shape the course of world events in the 21st century. The thrust was on how to further strengthen cooperation between the two largest democracies in the world, and sustain the underlying spirit behind the deal.

Criticism that the India-U.S. deal had failed to deliver amounts to missing the wood for the trees. Measuring outcomes based on a select laundry list of items — complaining that energy security remains evanescent, that many dual-use technologies remain out of India’s reach, and that entry into the Multilateral Export Control Regime still eludes India — is misleading. This is because the real achievement is that the nuclear deal has been the key to technology redemption.

Energy security was, undoubtedly, one of the main considerations underlying thedeal, and considerable progress has been made in this direction, with much more to come. Equally important, however, was the need to find ways and means to dismantle the technology denial regime that hampered India’s scientific, technological and economic progress. While for the U.S., strategic convergence was one of the imperatives, India’s focus was on energy and technology initiatives.

No one expected that the barricades erected over the years against transfer of high technology would just melt away once the deal was signed, sealed and delivered. India did not wish to act as the ‘barbarian at the gate’, demanding instant dismantling of various restrictions nor was it in a position to do so. It recognised that a great deal of hard work was called for to complete the process. This is what has been happening since.

The U.S.’s endorsement of the achievements of Indian nuclear scientists — inherent in its acknowledgment of India as a state with advanced nuclear technology — apart, the extent to which the nuclear deal has led to the unlocking of India’s potential is significant.

In specific terms, outcomes have been very substantial. Without it, the task of removing restrictions on dual-use and high-end technologies would not have even begun, let alone happened. For instance, there wouldn’t have been even a consideration of India’s entry into the Wassenaar Arrangement on export controls for dual-use technologies, critical for obtaining crucial dual-use technologies, including for cyber-security research.

With the nuclear deal, which has the imprimatur of the U.S. and the IAEA, together with an unconditional waiver given by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), India is well-positioned to breach the digital divide that restricts Western companies and governments from supplying us crucial technology.

Energy nirvana

The civil nuclear energy sector has been the biggest gainer. The lifting of restrictions on civil nuclear trade between India and the rest of the world has paved the way for uranium imports. Availability of imported uranium ensures that our Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) and Light Water Reactors (LWRs) can now operate at full capacity.

The Fast Reactor Programme can correspondingly be accelerated. India’s experiment with Fast Breeder Reactors should gain still further momentum. Spent fuel from PHWRs recycled in Fast Breeder Reactors after reprocessing, has the potential of increasing our energy quotient several-fold. The proportion of nuclear energy in our energy mix should then increase from the current 3 to 4 per cent by an order of several magnitudes. As the Fast Breeder Programme advances, and attains a certain level of performance, we should also be able to utilise our extensive thorium deposits. Our scientists believe — in theory at least — that this will lead to energy nirvana.

Meanwhile, despite the doomsday predictions of critics and pessimists, countries like Russia and France have embarked on the building of new nuclear reactors of bigger capacity. Russia has committed itself to building two more 1,000 MWE nuclear reactors, with promises of six more. France is about to commit itself to building two nuclear reactors. This momentum is likely to encourage others to follow in their wake.

Linked to the nuclear deal are other changes, some of which are already evident. The U.S. has effected certain changes to its export control laws, and with this, India and the U.S. are today exploring co-production and co-development in defence technologies. After years of isolation, U.S. and Indian scientific communities are coming together in path-breaking joint research in several sectors. An energy dialogue has been initiated with the U.S. — the accent being on clean energy and coal. The U.S. has collaborated in India’s Mars and Moon missions.

Possibly the most enduring impress of the India-U.S. nuclear deal is in creating a new awareness across the world that India’s ancient wisdom is now embroidered with new paradigms of thought, action and behaviour. India’s successful diplomatic initiative to win friends among the global community for the nuclear deal (most of whom were opposed to granting India any special exemption) has helped many of them to view India from a totally new perspective. It has also enabled India to unlock doors vis-à-vis certain countries — Saudi Arabia for instance — which hitherto tended to view India solely through the Cold War prism. A new framework of relationships across the world has been established.

Most important, an agreement of this kind, unique in the annals of the history of global nuclear negotiations, has enabled India to recognise the value of strategic patience and the importance of building partnerships, and of sustaining co-operation. This has given handsome returns in the strategic and non-strategic realm.

(M.K. Narayanan is a former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal)