The Arab-US Strategic Partnership and the Changing Security Balance in the Gulf

By Anthony H. Cordesman, with the assistance of Michael Peacock 

JUL 13, 2015 

The ongoing confrontation with Iran, the war against ISIL, the instability in Iraq, the Civil war in Syria, and the conflict in Yemen have all made major changes in the security situation in the Gulf and in the regional military balance. The strategic partnership between Arab Gulf states, and with the U.S. and other outside states, must now evolve to both deal with conventional military threats and a range of new threats including ideological extremists, non-state actors, their state sponsors, and a growing range of forces design to fight asymmetric wars.

The Burke Chair at CSIS is completing a new book-length assessment of the Gulf military balance, the military capabilities of each Gulf state, the role of the US as a security partners, and the priorities for change in the structure of both the GCC and the Arab Gulf military partnership with the US.

This assessment goes far beyond the conventional military balance and examines how force developments in the region affect joint and asymmetric warfare, missiles, and missile defense, nuclear forces, and in terrorism, the role of non-state actors, and outside powers.

A totally revised and final draft of this study, entitled The Arab-US Strategic Partnership and the Changing Security Balance in the Gulf, is now available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/150713_Cover_and__Report%20_Gulf_Military_Balance_2015.pdf.

This draft provides both a narrative analysis of key security issues and force developments, and detailed charts, tables, and maps comparing key force elements, military spending, force structure and size, weapons numbers, and arms transfers.

It includes the forces and force developments in Iran, Iraq, Yemen, and each of the GCC states in detail, US forces, and the impact of other outside powers.

Separate chapters cover:

I. The Security Balance: The Changing Balance of the Gulf Forces and Regional Threats

II. Military Expenditures

III. Arms Imports

IV. Ground Forces

V. Naval Forces

VI. Air Forces

VII. Land-Based Air Defense Forces

VIII. Surface-to-Surface Missiles

IX. Missile Defenses

X. Nuclear Forces

XI. Extremism and Terrorism, Failed State Wars and Paramilitary and Security Forces

XII. US Forces in the Gulf and Total Power Projection Capabilities

The final report will be in both download and E-Book form. It is intended to serve as a reference for both meetings like the coming meeting between the US and the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and military and security analysts.

Comments, corrections, and additions would be most helpful and should be sent to Anthony H. Cordesman atacordesman@gmail.com . If possible, please provide these by 15 August 2015.