July 22, 2015: The Islamic terrorist campaign in the south has been going on since 2004, leaving 6,400 dead and 11,000 wounded. Efforts to negotiate an end to the violence have failed so far because of disagreements among the many factions (separatists, Islamic terrorists, gangsters) making the violence possible. Because there is nothing to show for all the violence but a lot of dead and maimed civilians and an obvious impediment (all the violence) to badly needed economic growth some officials fear the attacks may go national. Local security officials point out that this is unlikely as there are not many active Islamic terrorists causing all the violence and most of these (at least according to those captured and seized documents) justify their actions as “defending their homeland” (the three largely Moslem southern provinces) and depend on some local support to keep at it. Attacks outside the south would be more difficult to carry out as the southerners look and sound differently and would be easier to spot. Moreover the Islamic terrorists would lose even more popular support in the south, where their violence has been increasingly unpopular, even though the Islamic terrorists have tried lately, with some success, to avoid hurting civilians. The continued attacks have made the economic situation worse, despite government efforts to spend more on developing the economy down there. The money is largely wasted as long as the violence persists and the local civilians know it and blame the Islamic terrorists.
Economic problems are not just a southern thing. Nationwide the regular survey of economic sentiment among businesses saw the sixth straight month of decline. This is the result of a drought this year, the worst in fifteen years. Thailand is a major food exporter (particularly rice) and a drought quickly hurts the entire economy. Businesses are also harmed by the political disorder and the military government. Without a functioning democracy most businesses don’t trust the government. The economic slowdown puts more pressure on the military government to hold elections but the generals are afraid that this time the retribution by an elected officials may be much more damaging than in the past. There have been eleven such military governments in the last four decades and 19 coups or attempts since 1932 (plus seven attempts that failed). Most Thais are tired of it and have demanded reforms to curb the ability of the military to take over. Trimming the power and influence of the military has not been easy and in early 2014 there was yet another military takeover “for the good of the country.” Now the generals are trying to destroy the Shinawatra clan, which has been a populist power in the country for over half a century. It is the relentless populism that the royalists are really up against and you can’t eliminate populism with guns and jails. Many generals realize that the Shinawatras are not the problem but more fundamental aspects of Thai culture are. But most of the senior military officers are still hoping for some other solution, if only they could come up with one.
No comments:
Post a Comment