Handle carefully

Subir Bhaumik
July 14, 2015,

MYANMAR ARMY CHIEF'S VISIT

This is one visit India will really have to handle with care. When Myanmar’s army chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing visits Delhi later in July, India will have to make him feel like a head of state, though he is not one. That is because he commands an institution that has run Myanmar for nearly 50 years and which still has 25 per cent representation in the country’s parliament, giving it a de facto veto power in running the country.

The army’s continued stranglehold in Myanmar’s polity became evident when parliament recently shot down suggested constitutional amendments to change provisions that now debar someone with close foreign relatives to run for presidency. Article 59F of the 2008 Myanmar constitution is all about keeping Aung Sang Suu Kyi out of reckoning for the position of president or vice president because her late husband and both her sons are British citizens. So her party may contest the parliament polls later this year but there is no hope of her contesting for president.

But India has serious security concerns in Myanmar, tackling a resurgent northeastern insurgency being the most important. Many including the US expect India to play a robust role in the restoration of democracy in Myanmar but a string of attacks on Indian security forces in the Northeast in the past three months has made our priority to get the best possible cooperation out of Myanmar’s all-powerful army Tatmadaw.

Nearly 30 soldiers died forcing India to launch a tit-for-tat raid on two rebel bases on the Myanmar border on June 9. The chest-thumping in Delhi after the raid did upset Myanmar, which promised cooperation but not at the cost of its sovereignty. Pakistan’s rebuttals (“we are not Myanmar”) that followed junior information minister Rajyavardhan Rathore’s threat to handle ‘western disturbances’ similarly, also did not go down well with the Myanmarese.

National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and foreign secretary S Jaishankar seem to have done some damage control during their visit to Myanmar after the June raid. 

RAW chief Rajinder Khanna, an old Myanmar hand, and army chief General Dalbir Singh Suhag, also on good terms with the Tatmadaw generals since his days as corps and army commander in the East, have both helped undo the damage caused by the needless triumphalism and media speculation. That is why Senior General Ming Aung Hlaing is coming to Delhi at the invitation of General Suhag.

If tackling the insurgency in the Northeast is a priority to get India’s “Act East” policy going, it is important that the new UNLF-SWEA coalition combining four rebel groups and supported by as many is tackled decisively before it spins out of control. There is no way that can be done without substantial operational support and coordination from the Tatmadaw.

Since Myanmar faces much stronger insurgencies directed at its central authority – specially the three Ks: Kachins, Karens, Kokangs – it will need some effort to convince the Tatmadaw to redeploy forces against the Northeast Indian rebels based in Myanmar’s Sagaing division, specially because the terrain there is most difficult.

Myanmar’s ceasefire with NSCN factional supremo S S Khaplang in 2012 remains intact though the one he had with India has collapsed. That creates a tricky situation for the Tatmadaw. At a time when the Thein Sein government has signed scores of truce deals with ethnic rebel armies – and NSCN(K) is one of them- it may not be easy for them to unilaterally renege on it with one group without impacting others. 

So, it is up to Delhi to find a way to get the Myanmar government to effectively cooperate on operations (parallel or coordinated) against the Sagaing bases of Khaplang and his allies. Not only will border mechanisms have to be fine-tuned but the real time intelligence sharing of the two armies have to be geared up.

The senior general will meet India’s top leadership including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar. It is a good idea to give Aung Ming Hlaing that kind of importance. Delhi will surely not make the mistake of talking democracy to a soldier, but it should be able to extract its pound of flesh on security cooperation. The quasi-military regime of President Thein Sein has announced national elections to be held on November 8.

Statute changes

Recently, the Myanmar parliament dominated by pro-military politicians shot down suggested constitutional amendments to bring down the current 25 per cent military representation in parliament and abrogate Art 59(F). There is some pressure on India to play a role in restoration of democracy in Myanmar but New Delhi will need to resist the temptation.

After the rains are over, the two armies should be able to organise some coordinated operations along Sagaing’s borders with Nagaland, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. If rolling out a red carpet for Aung Ming Hlaing that is usually reserved for heads of state is what it takes to get that vital security cooperation, Delhi should go for that without hesitation.

This is not to suggest that the insurgencies in the Northeast can only be tackled by military action. Modi’s government will have to simultaneously expedite negotiations for settlements with groups Delhi has been talking – with some for even 17 years. The settlements should include genuine concessions, not cosmetic ones – specially on the ‘special federal relationship’ for the Nagas – which can be replicated elsewhere in the Northeast. 

But a determined military action to deny the rebels the last foreign base area (Sagaing is the only one after those in Bhutan and Bangladesh are gone) will soften up and decimate the hardliners to allow those in a mood for settlement to accept and return to the normal political process.

(The writer, an author, is senior editor with Dhaka-based bdnews24.com and consulting editor with Myanmar's Mizzima News)