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Ajai Sahni

India's policy on Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), on terrorism, and on the principal sponsor of terrorism in South Asia - Pakistan - has often been criticized for its inconsistencies. Over the past years, however, an increasing consistency has been evident - though perhaps not in any particularly constructive sense: the consistency of a pendulum, swinging with insistent regularity from one extreme to the other.

Another Swing of the Pendulum, November 3, 2003 

Another ‘historical’ media event has been orchestrated, with ‘unprecedented’ agreements arrived at during the meeting of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit at Ufa in Russia on July 10, 2015. Modi’s attendance at the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit at Islamabad in 2016 is being packaged as a ‘breakthrough’ in Indo-Pak relations, as are the restoration of routine diplomatic and military contacts between the two countries. Crucially, it was India that sought the meeting between the two Prime Ministers at Ufa.

Meanwhile, a day earlier, on July 9, 2015, a Border Security Force (BSF) Constable was killed by Pakistani troops in the Nowgam Sector of Kupwara District, along the Line of Control (LoC), in J&K. Constable Krishan Kumar Dubey of BSF’s 119th Battalion was killed when Pakistani troops fired three sniper shots at him at the Karam picket in the Nowgam Sector.

Further, on July 5, 2015, Pakistani Rangers opened fire at Indian positions in the Nowgam Sector, killing another BSF trooper. At the same time, Pakistani Rangers had also opened fire in the Macchil Sector of the same District, but no casualty was reported there.

On the same date, Pakistani Rangers had resorted to night-long firing targeting six Border Out Posts (BOPs) in the Arnia sector of Jammu District, along the International Border (IB). However, no casualty was reported.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Pakistani Forces have violated the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) on at least 50 occasions during the first six months of 2015 (data till June 30), resulting in three fatalities among Security Force (SF) personnel. There were 74 CFA violations by Pakistan during the last six months of 2014, resulting in three deaths among SF personnel. There have already been five CFA violations by Pakistan, resulting in the death of two SF personnel, in the month of July 2015 ( till July 12). 

CFA violations by Pakistani Forces are deliberately intended to help infiltrate terrorists into Indian Territory. SATP’s partial data has recorded at least 17 infiltration attempts during the first six months of 2015 (till June 30), resulting in 11 fatalities – eight terrorists and three SF personnel, adding to 19 such attempts during the last six months of 2014, which resulted in 13 fatalities – 12 terrorists and one trooper.

Further, J&K State Director General of Police (DGP) K. Rajendra Kumar disclosed, on June 11, 2015, that there was a significant concentration of terrorists across the LoC, and intelligence reports indicate that infiltration attempts are slated to increase. Moreover, Union Minister of State in the Ministry of Home Affairs Haribhai Parathibhai Chaudhary stated in Parliament on February 24, 2015, “According to reports there are several terrorist training camps in Pak Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK) of the various outfits i.e. Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), which are used for training and subsequently for infiltrating trained militants/terrorists into J&K State.”

It is significant that, as recently as on June 7, 2015, Modi had, during his visit to Bangladesh, declared, that Pakistan was a ‘nuisance’ and was responsible for ‘promoting terrorism’ in the South Asian region. Reiterating India’s purported ‘hardline’ position, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, speaking on May 31, 2015, after a Pakistani court ordered the release of jailed 26/11 (Mumbai 2008) attack perpetrator Zaki-ur-Rahman Lakhvi, demanded, “If Lakhvi remains outside and he remains free and Pakistan thinks we will speak, will India ever accept that?” On the other hand, Pakistan’s Interior Minister, Nisar Ali Khan, had clearly stated that his Government would not ban the Jama’at-ud-Dawa (JuD), the organisation responsible for numberless terrorist attacks on Indian soil, including the 26/11 carnage.

Just a day before the Ufa confabulations, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khwaja Asif had warned that Pakistan could use nuclear weapons against India in the event of war.

And just a month earlier, in the wake of a minor Indian Army operation on Myanmarese soil against militants of some Northeastern insurgent groups, several Indian Government sources, including Ministers, vastly exaggerating the significance of the incident, had warned that the operation was a ‘message’ to Pakistan as well.

Crucially, shortly after his election, but before he had been sworn in as Prime Minister, Modi had promised a brave new strategy to deal with Pakistan’s mischief, the lynchpin of which was that talks and terrorism could not go together, that it was not “possible to have a discussion amidst the deafening noise of bomb blasts and gunshots... There can be no talks till all this (terrorism) comes to an end.”

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s Election Manifesto 2014 had promised “zero tolerance on terrorism, extremism and crime”, noting that “Over the past decade, lack of a strong and visionary leadership, coupled with multiple power centres, has failed to address the issue of national security, leading to a chaotic situation and denting India's image in the international arena.” Recognizing the “increase in incidence of Pakistan backed terror groups in India”, among other threats to national security, the Manifesto declared, “BJP recognizes the importance of identifying a clear roadmap to address the issue head-on, with radical systemic changes.”

None of this has come to pass. Despite completely unambiguous evidence of Pakistan’s continuing mischief, the Indian establishment under Modi, after some little bluster and posturing, has returned to the default setting of India’s policy on Pakistan – vacillation and drift. For all the promise of ‘radical change’, the options remained circumscribed to ‘talks’ or ‘no talks’, a situation no different from that under the feckless Manmohan Singh Government. There has been a comprehensive failure to develop any other instrumentalities to force any measure of rationality or compliance on Islamabad, and no evidence whatsoever of any ‘strong, visionary leadership’.

A range of extraneous circumstances, particularly including enormous international (particularly US) pressure on Islamabad, a mounting crisis of domestic terrorism, and a shift in strategic priorities towards the more urgent terrorist campaigns in Afghanistan, have provided some relief in J&K, and this has been capitalized on by Indian SFs. The result has been a dramatic improvement in the security situation in J&K, with a total of 70 fatalities recorded in the first six months of 2015, as against 124 such killings in the latter half of 2014.

Nevertheless, there is clear evidence of Pakistan’s continuing efforts to support radicalization and terrorism, despite dwindling support in the Valley and beyond. Pakistan’s external intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is actively supporting its terrorist proxies to find new recruits. According to a July 7, 2015, report, intelligence agencies warned that at least 14 LeT and five JeM terrorists had infiltrated into J&K, with the principal objective of recruiting youth to their cause, from villages located along the LoC and the IB. JeM has resolved to mark 2015 as a year of ‘Inquilab-e-Jihad’. Most of the terrorists currently operating in J&K are of foreign origin. DGP Kumar stated, on January 14, 2015, "We continue to see foreign terrorists' presence between 40 to 50 per cent. The sidelining of the militant Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) and downsizing of the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) has seen increase in foreign terrorists, who are more ruthless."

Further, a hitherto unknown terror outfit, Lashkar-e-Islam (LeI), widely considered to be a front of the Hizb-ul-Mujahiddeen (HM), has spread havoc in the Sopore area of Baramulla District, disruptingmobile networks, and engaging in a campaign of targeted killings. At least six persons, including two activists of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference – Gilani (APHC-G), have been killed, just between May 25 and June 15, 2015.

Efforts to orchestrate public disorders in J&K, and to reunite the fractious separatist constituency, are also in evidence, even as the Pakistan High Commission at Delhi continues to find occasion to meet, consult with and guide the separatist leaders. One such meeting, for an Iftar party on July 4, was scuttled to ensure that the Modi-Sharif meeting at Ufa went through; but reports now indicate that the High Commission will be hosting the separatist leaders for an Id Milan party on July 21, 2015. It is significant that Foreign Secretary level talks between India and Pakistan were suspended, and the entire, premature, negotiation process was derailed, after the Pakistan High Commission had hosted the separatist leaders in August 2014. Thereafter, however, separatists attended the Pakistan Day celebration of March 2015.

The Modi Government has betrayed its promise of bringing coherence to its policy on terrorism and on Pakistan and has relied more on the projection of a false image, rather than on the acquisition of any real strength, or the development of any consistent strategy. It appears that every party reserves its heroics and its nationalism for its periods in opposition; once in power, every regime operates within the same inertial paradigm, alternating between occasional sulks in the wake of fresh Pakistani transgressions, and desperate intervals of directionless conciliation. For all his efforts to project himself as a strongman, Modi is progressively exposing himself as being as weak kneed as his spiritless predecessor, Manmohan Singh. In the process, without securing any measurable gains, he has conferred increasing legitimacy on a rogue state that has long sponsored terrorism in India, extended the malignant shadow of Islamist extremism and terrorist violence across vast areas of the globe, and that remains the epicenter of geopolitical destabilization in the South Asian region.