by RC Porter
July 13, 2015
An interesting subtitle regarding Russia and India:
The first is to backstop precipitous declines in Russian power. Chinese strategic analysts cannot help but be thrilled to have the leading members of the U.S. defense establishment proclaim that Russia is now the principal threat to the United States. Combined with announced cuts in the size of the U.S. Army, this portends well for thinning out any planned increase in the U.S. presence in the Pacific, because the focus now appears to be on a pivot back to Europe in order to shore up the precarious eastern frontiers of the Euro-Atlantic world. The lifeline that China has provided to the Russian economy-not only new contracts for energy and trade deals, but also the purchase of Russian bonds by Chinese financial institutions-has allowed the Putin administration to blunt the impact of Western sanctions and allowed Moscow to continue to maintain its position in Ukraine. China also benefits from a more anti-American Russia that is important for helping to secure China’s western territory by having Moscow guard Beijing’s backyard. Putin’s early flirtations with creating a strategic partnership with the West-including the post-9/11 offer of assistance to facilitate a U.S. military presence in Central Asia-were troubling to the Chinese, who have always feared the possibility of complete American encirclement. The Ukraine crisis has permanently ruptured Russia’s ties to the West and pulled Moscow into a closer relationship with Beijing.
The second is to keep India neutral. By itself, a U.S. pivot to Asia is insufficient to hold China in check. It requires an effective coalition of key regional partners who are prepared to build on the initial U.S. investment. Japan, America’s premier strategic ally in the region, cannot fulfill these requirements on its own. India has to serve as the western linchpin of a belt of states (including Vietnam, the Philippines and Australia) who are prepared to work together to balance China.
If China can start a “Shanghai process” with India-replicating the diplomatic efforts that settled Beijing’s outstanding border disputes with Russia and the Central Asian republics-it serves a third purpose: convincing other Asian states with whom China has territorial and maritime disputes that Beijing is willing to find diplomatic means to resolving conflict-as long as the United States is kept out. In addition, part of China’s outreach to the neighbors throughout Greater Eurasia is to convince them to hitch their plans for growth and prosperity to the “Chinese Dream” and to connect themselves to the new Silk Roads (both land and maritime routes) that will knit the region together-as opposed to the American vision of a Trans-Pacific Partnership. Via new institutions being created under the aegis of the BRICS and SCO, as well as organizations like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), where China and India are the two largest shareholders, Beijing offers to the countries of the rising Global South the ability to route around the established institutions that remain dominated by the Euro-Atlantic countries.
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