U.S. Considers Harder Line on Russia

By JULIAN E. BARNES

Administration officials discussing new deterrence strategies to rein in Russian meddling in Europe

Obama administration officials are considering new deterrence strategies to rein in Russian meddling in Europe, in what some say would amount to an updated version of Cold War-era containment.

The proposed approach involves beefing up the militaries of allies and would-be partners and rooting out government corruption, which they see Moscow exploiting to gain more influence.

Some administration officials also want to expand the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to limit Moscow’s orbit. Membership for Ukraine or Georgia remains off the table, but some Pentagon and administration officials are advocating admitting the small Balkan country of Montenegro to solidify the country’s ties to the West and show that Mr. Putin doesn’t have a veto over alliance expansion.

The latest policy discussions come as President Barack Obama meets this weekend with leaders of the world’s largest industrialized democracies in Germany, where he is expected to push European allies to extend sanctions on Russia against a backdrop of escalating violence in Ukraine.

‘It is about hardening before the crisis occurs. Once the crisis occurs you get into this debate about what is escalatory and what is not escalatory. This is about acting precrisis to deter and prevent crisis.’

—Gen. Martin Dempsey , chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

U.S. officials have acknowledged that economic sanctions haven’t compelled Russian President Vladimir Putin to change his calculus, and they voiced concerns about both an uptick in violence in Ukraine and the use of heavy weaponry that was restricted by the cease-fire deal.

“It’s clear the sanctions are working on the Russian economy, but what is not apparent is that that effect on his economy is deterring Putin from following the course that was evidenced in Crimea last year,” said Defense Secretary Ash Carter, noting that Russian aggression would be “an enduring challenge.”

The longer-term measures under discussion, officials say, stem from a recognition that Moscow has refused to moderate its posture after its territorial grab last year in Ukraine, and that U.S. and European attempts at diplomacy and sanctions alone won’t be enough to force a change. Those measures would include stepping up training for European allies to help partner militaries resist the kinds of so-called hybrid tactics—like training surrogate forces and conducting snap border exercises—that Russia has used effectively in Ukraine.

The impetus toward a policy shift also is driven by the conclusion that U.S. steps to reassure regional allies must be bolstered by other measures against possible Russian intrusions.

The Pentagon also is drafting plans for where to position new stocks of military equipment for use in a crisis or for stepped-up training exercises. That would entail additional U.S. troops assigned to rotating duty in the region. But Washington remains opposed, for now, to rebuilding permanent U.S. troop formations in Europe.

The administration is accelerating work on new military technologies to better counter Russian military advances and try to offset advances by Moscow, and deter Russia from using its increasing military prowess.

The policy deliberations are gaining momentum. On Friday, Mr. Carter gathered a group of military leaders in Stuttgart, Germany, to discuss the broader U.S. strategy to Russia. While officials were expected to talk about increasing military exercises and other assistance, the goal of the meeting was to work on the broader strategy rather than assessing specific military moves.

Inside the White House, meanwhile, the National Security Council is at work on an overhaul of its Russia strategy that formally casts aside the policy of “reset” that dominated Mr. Obama’s first term.

Officials and analysts acknowledge there are disparate views in Europe, and even within NATO, on the best approach toward Russia—and whether stepped-up deterrence would be the correct approach. Elements of the emerging strategy—including expansion of the Atlantic alliance and increased training exercises—are likely to be discussed further at a meeting of NATO defense ministers at the end of the month.

Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, one of the most influential presidential advisers, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that Russia has developed a host of capabilities and tactics that can be used to threaten its neighbors, including NATO members the U.S. is treaty-bound to protect.

“On certain issues, President Putin has actually stated his intent,” Gen. Dempsey said. “One of his clearer statements is that he considers NATO to be a threat to him and will look for opportunities to discredit and eventually undermine the alliance.”

To counter Russian aggression, the U.S. must work to help allies and partners better fend off pressure from Moscow and counter Mr. Putin’s “subversive activities”, Gen. Dempsey said.

“It is about hardening before the crisis occurs,” said Gen. Dempsey. “Once the crisis occurs you get into this debate about what is escalatory and what is not escalatory. This is about acting precrisis to deter and prevent crisis.”

Views aren’t uniform within the Obama administration, with some officials seeing Russia as a declining power while others see a more serious challenge.

Mr. Obama, according to current and former officials, is more skeptical that Moscow represents a long-term challenge and is wary of inadvertently making Russia more of an enemy than it has to be.

Secretary of State John Kerry signaled after a meeting last month with Mr. Putin that the U.S. will continue to work with Russia on issues of common interest. Administration officials said that is unlikely to change even under a hardened U.S. approach.

“There are still national security issues we will work with Russia on,” said an administration official, naming Iran, Syria, and terrorism.

Other officials insist there is growing unity around the idea that Mr. Putin and his view of Russia represent a serious problem.

Inside the Pentagon, officials have begun to refrain from using words such as “reassurance” and instead have begun to embrace harder military terms such as deterrence, officials said.

Although some officials see the emerging policy as a new version of containment, others are wary of conceding that a new Cold War has broken out with Russia. Still, even those officials acknowledge the U.S. must counter Russian moves in Europe.

“We have to deal with Russia’s aggression against its neighbors and its apparent intention to reforge a sphere of domination,” said a senior U.S. official.

Sanctions and economic isolation remain a cornerstone of the Obama administration’s approach to Russia, imposing costs for its annexation of Crimea and destabilization of Russia. And senior officials in Washington said Friday that Europe appears likely to agree to an extension of the current sanction regime, set to expire this month.

But officials said a broader strategy for Russia must weaken Moscow’s ability to use economic leverage or control of energy supplies to gain influence in Eastern and southern Europe.

The U.S. believes if it can strengthen democratic institutions, professionalize the military and curb corruption in countries, Russian oligarchs will have fewer ways to extend their—and the Kremlin’s—influence.

“You can’t just use sanctions to impose costs,” said a senior administration official. “You also have to mitigate and eliminate the sources of vulnerability and the leverage for coercion. That means making countries in Russia’s neighborhood more integrated and less corrupt.”

To further limit Moscow’s leverage, U.S. officials have also begun prodding countries, particularly Baltic NATO members with large Russia speaking populations, to address the needs of minority ethnic populations.

Others believe expanding the alliance can also demonstrate to Moscow that the West has more allies, while Mr. Putin has far fewer friends.

The emerging U.S. approach has put the small country of Montenegro—far from the fighting in Ukraine—near the center of the debate over how to respond to the Kremlin.

Milica Pejanovic-Djurisic, Montenegro’s defense minister, said in an interview her country has shown its readiness to join the alliance and continuing the expansion of NATO would help bring additional stability to Europe.

“In the face of all the instability that is appearing in the East of Europe, strengthening security in the Balkans is part of the solution for the overall situation we are all in right now,” she said.

While some in Europe and in Washington remain cautious about further NATO expansion, many U.S. officials agree that Montenegro has made advances in cleaning up its intelligence service, professionalizing its military and reducing corruption, and taken steps to minimize Russian influence.

Overall, Pentagon officials said the emerging approach—from building up allies to investing in new technologies—is one that seeks to deter Russia in order to help restore the post-Cold War security in Europe.

“We are dedicated first to deterrence,” said a senior Pentagon official. “It is clear the Russians see us as an adversary. And so we have to ask: How do we inject stability into an environment that looks volatile.”