Yaakov Lappin and Nicholas Blanford
June 11, 2015
IDF outlines ‘new’ strategy for Hizbullah conflict
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has outlined a new strategy that will depopulate southern Lebanon if war breaks out with the Shia group Hizbullah, but this was likely to happen anyway without much Israeli encouragement.
A senior IDF source said on 3 June that the plan is to precipitate the evacuation of more than one million non-combatants from southern Lebanon if a full-scale conflict breaks out, thereby allowing the Israeli military to bring all its firepower to bear against Hizbullah without risking massive civilian casualties.
He said the evacuation policy would be implemented “if we have no choice” and added that the group has established rocket and missile launch bases in 240 south Lebanese villages and other built-up regions.
The source said the ensuing military operation would involve an unprecedented aerial campaign, which would hit thousands of targets every 24 hours, followed by a ground offensive.
Hizbullah Secretary-General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah dismissed the Israeli warning as routine “psychological warfare” in a televised speech on 5 June. However, he also countered that Hizbullah would displace millions of Israelis if a war was “imposed” on Lebanon. “If you are threatening to displace a million and a half Lebanese, the resistance [Hizbullah] will displace millions of Zionists [Israelis]. We are not afraid of your threats.”
While the IDF source did not say what would be done to encourage people to leave southern Lebanon, civilians have fled en masse to safer areas further north at the outset of all the Israeli-Hizbullah conflicts dating back to 1993. Indeed, the IDF has usually left a short window at the onset of hostilities for civilians to flee south Lebanon before intensifying its air and artillery campaign.
While Israel has repeatedly accused Hizbullah of exploiting civilians as 'human shields’, the group’s traditional calculation is that the local population will depart, leaving the battle space to it and the IDF.
The primary difference between now and the last conflict in 2006 is that Hizbullah has significantly expanded both the number and types of rockets and missiles in its inventory. The IDF predicts the group now has the capacity to fire up to 1,500 rockets a day into Israel: a substantial increase from the average 124 rockets a day during the 2006 war.
Although the group has not revealed details of its weaponry, it is believed to have acquired Syrian-manufactured M-600 short-range ballistic missiles, which have a range of about 240 km, and variants of Iran’s Fateh-110 SRBMs with ranges up to 300 km. The accuracy of these weapons would allow it to effectively target Israeli air bases and other military facilities for the first time. This will put the IDF under more pressure to find and destroy the SRBMs and their launchers at the outset of a conflict.
Meanwhile, the Israeli Air Force tested its ability to continue operations under fire during an exercise on 3-4 June. The IDF Home Front Command simultaneously held a civil defence drill that simulated massive projectile attacks on multiple fronts, which saw air raid sirens go off across Israel on 2 June. Home Front Command officials urged civilians to use the exercise as an opportunity to refresh emergency responses and rehearse seeking cover in pre-determined shelters.
Despite the hostile rhetoric from both sides, neither Israel nor Hizbullah is currently seeking a confrontation. Hizbullah is heavily engaged in the Syrian civil war where it is fighting to defend the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The senior IDF source said that up to 7,000 of the group’s fighters are currently deployed in Syria and would likely have to deploy more because its offensive in the west of the country has ground to a halt with mounting loses. The group’s armed wing is estimated to have 30,000 members, including full-time and reserve forces.
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