by RC Porter
June 1, 2015
“The Islamic State Could Get Their Hands On NUCLEAR Weapon From Pakistan,” Warns Indian Minister of Defense
John Hall and Jenny Stanton, writing in the June 1, 2015 edition of London’s TheDailyMailOnline,says that Islamic “militants aren’t just merely exaggerating when they recently boasted of potentially acquiring nuclear weapons from Pakistan,” India’s Defense Minister has warned. Speaking at a security conference in Singapore [the same one SecDef Ash Carter attended], Rao Inderjit Singh, said that “with billions in the bank, and contact with powerful Pakistani arms dealers, it is feasible that the Islamic State could buy a nuclear bomb.” Last month, the Islamic State made the sensational claim that it is ‘infinitely’ closer to buying a nuclear bomb and bringing it into the United States and exploding it. An article, apparently penned by [current Islamic State hostage] John Cantile, writing for the terror group’s magazine Dabiq — says the scenario ‘is more possible today than it was one year ago. In an article entitled ‘The Perfect Storm,’ ISIS claims it has billions of dollars in the bank; and, describes a ‘hypothetical operation,’ which involves buying a nuclear weapon “through weapons dealers with links to corrupt officials in Pakistan.”
The ISIS magazine describes “how the device could be smuggled into North America overland, and by boat,” through Canada or Mexico, the DailyMailOnline noted.
“Perhaps such a scenario is far-fetched; but, it’s the sum of all fears for western intelligence agencies; and, it’s infinitely more possible today, than it was just a year ago,” the ISIS magazine claimed. The magazine article added, “if not a nuclear device, then — a few tonnes of explosives could be used instead.” The article ends with a chilling warning: “As the territory of the United States crosses from one border to another…..like a wildfire that is burning out of control, it’ll only be a matter of time before the Islamic State reaches the western world.”
The Islamic State, “makes no secret of the fact they have every intention of attacking America on its home soil. They’re looking to do something big, something that would make any past operation look like a squirrel shoot; and, the more groups that pledge allegiance — the more possible it becomes to pull off something truly epic,” Mr. Hall and Ms. Stanton wrote.
Anthony Glees, Director of the Center for Security and Intelligence Studies at the University of Buckingham, said, “the idea of Pakistan selling nuclear weapons to ISIS is “beggars belief.” “It would be suicidal for Pakistan to supply them — it would lead to immediate military intervention,” he toldTheDailyMailOnline. “However, it is possible that ISIS might try to acquire nuclear [weapons/material] from somewhere; but if so, all Western Intelligence agencies would be on the highest alert to prevent this. As for getting non-nuclear explosives, well that would indeed not be hard. But, they’re not nukes, I can’t believe ISIS would acquire nukes. ISIS is swaggering and posturing. “It is taunting both us and the West; but, also other Middle Eastern states…and embarrassing Pakistan at the same time. But, the bottom line is that ISIS is strengthening its stranglehold on Iraq and Syria….That is desperately bad news for us,” Professor Glees said.
On the whole, I agree with Professor Gates; but, observing that the acquisition of a nuclear device by ISIS “would be suicidal,” and prompt “immediate military intervention,” is a classic mistake of mirror image analysis. How many times has an opponent or, adversary been surprised — because their target believed — “they wouldn’t dare do that because it would be suicidal.” History is littered with the dead of those who did not think like their enemy, or suffered wishful thinking; and, instead, made the mistake of analyzing and estimating the threat based on their own pre-conceived notions — and, not those of the adversary. If ISIS could, there is no doubt in my mind that the group would pursue a nuke, or other weapon of mass destruction — and, the consequences be dammed. Thankfully, I do not think Pakistan is that corrupt; but, as A.Q. Kahn — Pakistan’s father of their nuclear bomb showed us — selling nuclear technology and expertise from Islamabad, has already occurred.
The Potential For A Terrorist Group To Smuggle A Nuclear Device Into The Continental U.S — Is Widely Recognized As Not Only Plausible, But Probable’
Stuart Rabin and David Waller in an editorial in the Aug. 20, 2013 Washington Times They wrote, “the potential for a terrorist group, etc., to smuggle a nuclear device into the continental U.S. is widely recognized as not only plausible, but probable.” Apparently, there is also more than enough unaccounted for/missing fissile material to construct a device here — without having to smuggle in the nuclear material. And, our port security and ability to ferret out/discover a covert attempt to smuggle in such material remains a vulnerability. As three members of Congress recently wrote, “Cargo containers arriving on ships from foreign ports offer terrorists a Trojan Horse for a devastating attack on the United States.” Quoting Harvard University’s National-Security Analyst Graham Allison, they noted that a nuclear attack on the U.S. homeland “is far more likely to arrive in a cargo container than on the tip of a missile.”
Thankfully, desiring to acquire a nuclear weapon or some other weapon of mass destruction is still difficult and not easy to conceal from inquiring minds. But, it won’t always be this way; and, one sure fire way to be the victim of a very unpleasant surprise — is to underestimate the adversary; and, assume “they would never do such a thing — because it would be suicidal.
‘The Scorpion And The Frog’
One of the oldest analogies around on the Middle East — is the scorpion and the frog. The scorpion approaches a frog at the edge of a large body of water and asks the frog for a lift to the other side. The frog initially declines — saying that the scorpion would sting him — and, he would die. The scorpion replies, no — I won’t do that because I would drown. The frog accepts that reasoning as sound and allows the scorpion to hope onto his back. After moving a way out on the water…..the scorpion does sting the frog. As they both are about to go down under the water, the frog uses his last breath to ask the scorpion why he did that — because it was suicidal for both. The scorpion replies — yes, but this is the Middle East. V/R, RCP
No comments:
Post a Comment