Yaakov Lappin
June 4, 2015
IDF, Hamas prepare for next conflict
A little under a year since the outbreak of the 50-day conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, the Egyptian-mediated truce still holds, but both sides are preparing for renewed hostilities.
Hamas fighters are training intensively in the Gaza Strip and detonating explosives right next to the border so they can be heard by local Israeli residents. Hamas is also building a road along the border that it says will be used for combat operations.
Meanwhile, the group’s rocket workshops are busy replenishing the stockpiles that were depleted or destroyed during the 2014 conflict.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) expects Hamas will make greater use of short-range rockets and mortars in future as these proved more effective in inflicting casualties than the longer-range rockets that can be intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome system before they reach population centres.
To counter this threat, the IDF has recently begun installing radars specifically designed to detect mortar and short-range rocket attacks. The new counterbattery radars should provide local residents with faster projectile alerts and shorten the IDF’s sensor-to-shooter cycle so that launch sites can be hit before the perpetrators withdraw.
Hamas is also digging new tunnels to replace the 32 that were destroyed during the Israeli ground operation in July 2014. It is currently unclear if any of these tunnels have yet crossed the border into Israel - a development that could potentially trigger a new conflict.
The IDF is currently in the initial phase of installing an underground tunnel detection system, the nature of which remains classified.
It is also improving ways of spotting infiltrators who emerge inside Israel from undetected tunnels by directing Combat Intelligence Collection units to monitor frontline Israeli regions as well as the Gaza Strip.
These units use a network of mast-mounted ground-surveillance radars, day cameras, and infrared optics, as well as roaming field intelligence assets, which are now scanning for trouble within both Israeli and Palestinian territory.
The IDF’s Gaza Division has been erecting ‘electronic’ fences with various sensors around Israeli villages close the border in recent months. These barriers can instantly alert local military forces of an intrusion.
Some of these villages continue to host IDF units and all have trained civilian armed response teams capable of countering armed infiltrators.
Guided anti-tank missiles such as the Russian-made Kornet continue to pose a threat over the border region. The IDF has responded by planting trees in certain areas to cover potential targets, particularly local train traffic, but such measures offer only limited protection.
Aside from Hamas’s capabilities and the IDF Gaza Division’s responses, there are unanswered intelligence-related questions about the power dynamics within Hamas as tensions between the political and military wings continue to simmer.
The political wing headed by Ismail Haniyeh seems to be more concerned with Gaza’s civilian population and the urgent need to rebuild the thousands of homes that were damaged and destroyed in the 2014 conflict than the military wing, which is under the command of Muhammad Deif and remains fixated on conflict with Israel.
While both wings must be interested in finding ways to end the Israeli and Egyptian blockades on Gaza and reduce Hamas’ regional isolation, there appears to be little agreement between them on how to accomplish this goal.
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