May 31, 2015
As the ‘war of words’ between China and the U.S. in the South China Sea escalates, questions arise as to exactly what are Australia’s interests in this contested maritime zone. Bonnie Glaser has recently claimed that approximately 60 per cent of Australia’s seaborne trade passes through the South China Sea, and Peter Jennings has suggested that Australia should join the U.S. in conducting freedom of navigation (FON) operations in the area .
These appreciations raise issues about the importance of this region to Australia, economically, politically and strategically. We need to have answers to these questions before determining our future actions.
When measured by value, the figure of 60% of our seaborne trade passing through the South China Sea is way off the mark. Based on the latest data for Australia’s overseas trade, it mightn’t even be half that—and about three-quarters of it would be trade to and from China. Thus the notion of a threat to our seaborne trade from China is rather a non-sequitur.
Our overseas trade crossing the South China Sea includes that with China (with a total of 23.9 per cent of our two-way overseas trade), Thailand (2.8%), Taiwan (1.9%), Vietnam (1.4%) and Hong Kong (1.2%). And even these figures overstate our dependence on the South China Sea, as it’s only trade with southern China that crosses the sea. These figures are based on overseas trade by value. Trade by volume could provide a different result recognizing the high volume of our exports (coal, iron ore, LNG, and other minerals) carried by sea, but it would still be nothing like 60%.
Politically, we have two treaty arrangements that could involve us in the South China Sea. The first and the one receiving most attention is the U.S. alliance, which could lead to Australia bolstering U.S. efforts to counter China in the area. However, Canberra has denied that it agreed to U.S. military plans to rotate B-1 strategic bombers and surveillance aircraft through Australia as part of efforts to deter Chinese regional ambitions.
The Five Power Defense Arrangement (FPDA) is the second treaty that could see us become involved in the South China Sea. Malaysia and Singapore, our regional partners in FPDA, are both littoral to the sea, but while Malaysia is a claimant to several island features, both countries have been relatively mild in their anti-China rhetoric. Also, Singapore recently concluded a four-day bilateral naval exercise with China.
Strategically, freedom of navigation is an important interest for Australia, particularly through the archipelagos to our north, but as I cautioned in an earlier post , it would be unwise of Australia to become associated with the currently unilateral, and legally questionable, assertions by the U.S. Such an involvement would do nothing for our image as an independent player in the region.
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