Vishal Chandra
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This book makes a modest attempt to contribute to the ongoing debate on future challenges for Afghanistan as the largest ever coalition of Western forces prepares to withdraw. It seeks to examine key political developments within Afghanistan over the last one decade in response to the US-led Western military and political intervention. Perhaps, much more is still to come in a war that could aptly be termed as the last big war of the twentieth and first long war of the twenty-first century. The emerging social and political narratives are unmistakably old and echo the sentiments of the past. Though a 'New Afghanistan' has emerged in the meanwhile, it remains fundamentally an urban phenomenon. The diversity of narratives and perceptions, and failure of past political transitions to build a sustainable internal balance of power, based on changed social and political realities, have turned Afghanistan into a complex entity that defies established theoretical formulations and explanations. The evolving security and political scenario suggests that elections alone may not help bring stability and order to Afghanistan. The next dispensation in Kabul, irrespective of its composition, is most likely to be confronted with a host of old and familiar challenges to its legitimacy and survival.
About The Author
Vishal Chandra is Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi. His core area of research is politics of Afghan conflict, with special interest in Taliban resurgence, politics of reconciliation, making of the Afghan National Army, role of political opposition, shaping of regional perceptions, past political transitions and trends in Indo-Afghan relations.
He has travelled widely in Afghanistan and has attended various international conferences and workshops on Afghanistan. He regularly lectures on Afghan affairs and is member of several policy groups on Afghanistan. With more than a decade of research experience, he has over 40 publications on Afghanistan, including 15 book chapters and several articles and commentaries, to his credit. He has edited the book, India's Neighbourhood: The Armies of South Asia (Pentagon Press, New Delhi, 2013).
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Abbreviations
List of Tables and Maps
Afghanistan: Key Socio-Economic Indicators
Introduction
New Order, Old Politics
An Abandoned and Forgotten War
Recasting Old Fault Lines
Mujahideen within Local Structures
Return of Old Militia Networks
Debating the New Constitution
Tryst with Democracy
The First Election (2004-05)
President Elect and the First Cabinet
Assessing the Bonn Process
Karzai’s Re-election: Chaotic Exercise
Prospects of Democracy
Opposition Politics and Karzai the Master Survivor
Evolution of NFA
The National Understanding Front Composition and Agenda of NFA
Reactions to the Emergence of the NFA
NFA and the Taliban
New Turf War Begins
Karzai the Master Survivor
Taliban Back into Power Play
War on Terror: Losing while Winning
Taliban No More on the Fringe
Gaining Strategic Depth in Pakistan
Changing Face of the Afghan War
Western Mission Going Nowhere
Politics of Taliban Reconciliation and Reintegration
Growing Ambiguity
Making of the Idea
Key Challenges
Future Prospect
Quest for a National Army
Origin/Evolution of the New National Army
Training and Mentoring
Structure/Formation of ANA Afghan National Army Air Corps (ANAAC)
Ethnic Representation
Funding
Rushing for Numbers
The Weaponry
Multiple Challenges
Future Prospects
The ‘Other’ Key Neighbours – Iran, India, China and Russia Pakistan: Terrorism without Terrorists!
Iran: A Dominant Factor
India: Partner in Development
China: Pretending Distance
Russia: Hesitant but Concerned
Awaiting ‘Post-2014’ Afghanistan
The Unfinished War
Beyond 2014: Continuing Concerns and Challenges
(i) Historical Conflict Dynamics
(ii) Post-Karzai Leadership
(iii) US’ Missing Future Strategy
(iv) Survival of the National Army
(v) Resilience of the Taliban
APPENDICES
Agreement on Provisional Arrangements in Afghanistan Pending the Re-establishment of Permanent Government Institutions
North Waziristan Peace Pact
White Paper of the Interagency Policy Group’s Report on U.S. Policy Toward Afghanistan and Pakistan
Status of ANAAC (as of April 2010)
Index
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