China’s stranglehold over cash-strapped Pakistan in the coming years speaks adequately of the latter’s subjugation to China’s long term objectives
ne of the abiding mentor-protégé relationships in recent history, of nearly 60 years' vintage, notwithstanding differing ideologies, is easily the one existing between Communist China and Islamic Pakistan.
That Pakistan, having been a part of the 1950s-60s US-led anti-Communist military alliances, CENTO and SEATO, successfully manipulated the "milking" of billions of dollars and military largesse from an indulgent Uncle Sam, for years, while simultaneously being a willing supplicant of US bête noire China's geo-strategic regional formulations, may appear surprising, but is attributable to just one common factor. No prizes for guessing the strand that binds both China and Pakistan together — a common animosity for India. That, despite being for many years the US' "frontline state in the global war on terror", Pakistan continues with its terrorist-friendly machinations and the US keeps turning a blind eye to Pakistan's mischief is inexplicable.
China's generous military aid, comprising nuclear weapons, strategic missiles and modern weaponry for its client state, Pakistan, since years, is exclusively directed against India. The world community has disregarded China violating its treaty obligations under the NPT and MTCR as it assists Pakistan acquire nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, while also helping it build the Chashma and Khushab nuclear reactors to produce weapons-grade plutonium, as also facilitating export of North Korean Taepo Dong and No Dong ballistic missiles to Pakistan.
Unquestionably for China, Pakistan is a low cost guarantor for needling India and keeping it hemmed in subcontinental affairs and restrict its multifarious endeavours not beyond South Asia. For Pakistan, China is a free yet a high value guarantor of security against India. This congruence of strategic interests between China and Pakistan confers on this relationship an "all weather", a "deeper than the oceans" and "sweeter than honey" configuration, as parroted by the leaders of both these countries. Thus, the much hyped visit to Pakistan by Chinese President Xi Jingping on 20-21 April, after the earlier cancelled proposed visit in September 2014, has administered the vitally needed sustenance to both Pakistan's military arsenal and its rapidly depleting coffers.
The joint statement issued by both countries at the end of Xi's visit formalises the ambitious plans of China's "Silk Road and Economic Belt" initiative. China plans to invest US $46 billion in Pakistan in the coming years. A total of 51 agreements covering a vast canvas in defence and security aspects, power generation, trade, banking and communications were signed during the Chinese President's visit, adding in the joint statement phrases like "shared destiny" and "perpetual continuity in Pakistan-China friendship from generation to generation". Thus, China's stranglehold over cash-strapped Pakistan in the coming years speaks adequately of the latter's subjugation to China's long term objectives in the region.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will create a massive network of roads, railways, bridges, dual use tunnels, pipelines linking China's restive Xinjiang to the deepwater port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea. Gwadar lies east of the Strait of Hormuz through which much of the West Asian crude production is carried. This project is part of China's "Belt and Road" plant to expand its economic and security footprint across Central and South Asia. Once completed, China will be able to avoid too much reliance on what currently bothers it, namely all the China bound sea traffic, which has to pass through the narrow Malacca Straits in the Indian Ocean. In addition, Chinese presence in the Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir regions along India's north-west has serious security implications for India.
It has also been recently reported that China plans to sell eight modern diesel-electric submarines to Pakistan, which will enable a doubling of Pakistan's current submarine fleet. In addition, it has been officially announced over Radio Pakistan that Pakistan will acquire 110 latest JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from China, with 50 of these slated to be delivered over the next three years. That all this modern weaponry and much more in the pipeline is only for use against India hardly brooks any profound military analysis.
The bee in the Chinese bonnet is that the major infrastructure of the highway leading to the Gwadar port goes through the restive, insurgency ridden province of Balochistan, where Pakistan has been facing a violent separatist movement since decades. The Pakistan Army has used mass murder and extermination of many young Balochis to quell the insurgency, but sporadic audacious attacks by the proud Balochis carries on unabated. The Chinese fears for their personnel working on these projects are well-founded and highlighted by Andrew Small in his recent book The China-Pakistan Axis. Small opines that despite all the security worries for the Chinese, "the scale is so large that it should still have a major economic impact regardless".
In addition to the Balochi insurgency, the Chinese are also wary of continuing support by some of Pakistani and Afghanistan based Islamic terror groups to the Uighur militants of the East Turkmenistan Liberation Front, who are engaged in a freedom movement in China's restive Xinjiang province.
The ever growing China-Pak Axis has major security implications for India. Politically speaking, in the so-called "disputed territories" of Gilgit-Baltistan and POK, how is Pakistan allowing another nation to virtually occupy territory, even if on long lease, to build infrastructure by a third nation? In 1963, Pakistan had unilaterally ceded 5,100 sq km of J&K territory in the Shaksgam Valley, thus this so called economic and connectivity project will further add to the complex solution-finding of the J&K problem.
China, as one of the world's major powers, growing rapidly both economically and militarily, has to conduct itself with a sense of balance, a visionary approach to global and regional matters and maturity required of an emerging global power. China's silence over 26/11 mastermind Zakiur Rehman's recent release by the Pakistanis does not bring any laurels to its image. It cannot condone terrorism in any form, even if it is emanating from its junior ally, Pakistan.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his forthcoming visit to China, will have to factor in all what the Chinese have been up to in the past few years to bolster Pakistan, even in areas which were not required.
How India manages to resolve the long outstanding India-China border issues and at least contain the growing Pakistan-China axis, will be the most crucial test of Indian diplomacy and Indian resolve. Meanwhile at home, let us go full steam ahead to build up our military capabilities as part of a clear-cut national security strategy.
Lt Gen Kamal Davar (Retired) was the first chief of India's Defence Intelligence Agency
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