Fourteen years into waging a frustrating counter-insurgency campaign in Afghanistan, there is at least one thing that every military expert who has studied the country can agree on: Osama bin Laden really knew what he was doing when he picked Afghanistan as a sanctuary for his murderous band of jihadists. There are few places in the world less hospitable to Western goals and values. Geographically isolated, economically backward, politically divided and culturally insular, Afghanistan has been a hard place to stabilize, and its neighbors haven’t been much help.
But despite numerous setbacks, the Bush and Obama administrations have stuck with the task of fashioning an inclusive democracy in Afghanistan that would no longer afford terrorists a safe haven. And in spite of a drumbeat of negative media coverage — including recent reports that high casualty rates among Afghan security forces are unsustainable — that steadfastness seems to be paying off. There are numerous signs that the U.S. and its 40-odd coalition partners have succeeded in making Afghanistan a more peaceful, progressive place. Here are five of them.
1. Afghan security forces are performing well. On January 1, the U.S. and its coalition partners formally transitioned from combat to conducting training missions. Special operations forces still pursue the remnants of Al Qaeda, but the Afghan army and police are in charge of protecting the population, and they are doing that job successfully. General John F. Campbell, the U.S. Army commander of coalition forces, reports that the Kabul government is in firm control of all 34 provincial capitals, and enemies of the regime are resorting to headline-grabbing terror attacks because they are unable to mass forces for major operations. President Ashraf Ghani has sacked 47 aged commanders, replacing them with a new generation that knows how to lead.
2. The political outlook has brightened. The irascible, unpredictable President Hamid Karzai has departed office, to be replaced by a partnership of Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. The two men are a political odd couple, hailing from different ethnic and regional roots, but that arguably is what’s needed to run a country carved out of a cultural patchwork by European powers during their imperial heyday. Ghani and Abdullah have their differences, but compared with Karzai they are models of professionalism — educated, thoughtful and committed to reform (particularly with regard to women’s rights). Their propensity to work together is reinforced by the awareness that Western forces will soon be gone, making cooperation crucial to political stability.
After 14 years of continuous engagement in Afghanistan, the coalition military campaign there is looking like a success. (Retrieved from Flickr)
3. Pakistan has awakened to shared interests. Relations between Afghanistan and its eastern neighbor of Pakistan have long been marked by suspicion. Karzai frequently accused the Pakistani government of providing sanctuary and aid to the Taliban. However, a series of brutal terrorist attacks inside Pakistan has awakened the government there to the danger of allowing extremists to operate unchecked in the tribal areas along the Afghan border (one such assault against a military school in Peshawar last December killed 132 children). Pakistan’s military has stepped up its efforts to suppress extremists, and Ghani has assured Islamabad he will redouble efforts to deny terrorists safe haven on the Afghan side of the border.
4. The economy has made huge progress. Afghanistan is still one of the poorest countries in the world, due in no small part to decades of internal strife. However, since coalition forces occupied the country per capita income has more than tripled as millions of expatriates have returned home to participate in the economy’s rebirth. The number of cell phone subscribers has increased from 25,000 to 22,000,000. A country with only 40 miles of paved roads now has over 7,000 miles. The number of schools has increased 14-fold, and the number of teachers nine-fold. Health improvements have raised average life expectancy by over 20 years. And foreign investors are making big bets to develop the country’s iron, copper, oil and lithium deposits. As opportunities expand, opium production has fallen steadily.
5. Popular opinion supports national institutions. With a growing economy and receding insurgency, public opinion among Afghans has turned decidedly optimistic. According to NATO surveys, 78% of Afghans say security conditions in the local areas where they live have improved or remained steady during the period Afghan forces have been leading the fight. 87% of Afghans express confidence in their national army and 59% believe it is capable of defeating insurgents. 77% express confidence in the government and 87% support the power-sharing arrangement between Ghani and Abdullah. And 55% believe their country is headed in the right direction — a better reading than similar surveys register in the U.S.
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