The nuclear framework agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany) has a real chance of stopping Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability. However, some critics argue that it will not change Iran’s domestic politics and its policies in the Middle East. They argue that an “ascendant” Iran will become even more powerful as sanctions are eased and more resources flow into Iranian government coffers.
After all, Iran’s top leadership—including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards—has expressed opposition to political reforms or détente with the West. And while President Hassan Rouhani has stated that a nuclear agreement will enhance Iran’s engagement with the world, he is not in the best position to make fundamental changes. Nevertheless, the real hope lies not in Iran’s aging leadership, but with its youthful and forward-looking people. Millions of Iranians may not have a direct say in the nuclear negotiations now, but they strive to have a say in their country’s future. Their battle with an ossified political system will not be easy. But it can be won.
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