In assessing swings in the balance of power, economic reductionism is tempting but very misleading. To be sure, countries with a large gross domestic product (GDP) sometimes convert some of those economic resources into military power, and sometimes they actually use that military power in ways that upset the existing order. But there is no inevitability here. To take a current example, just because China will soon have the largest GDP in the world does not necessarily mean that it will seek to overturn the East Asian status quo. What will be important are the choices that Chinese leaders make about how to use their country’s growing economic clout. (Note: these estimates are on a purchasing power parity basis, which many economists believe makes an economy bigger than it actually is. But that’s a topic for a future commentary.)
In assessing swings in the balance of power, economic reductionism is tempting but very misleading. To be sure, countries with a large gross domestic product (GDP) sometimes convert some of those economic resources into military power, and sometimes they actually use that military power in ways that upset the existing order. But there is no inevitability here. To take a current example, just because China will soon have the largest GDP in the world does not necessarily mean that it will seek to overturn the East Asian status quo. What will be important are the choices that Chinese leaders make about how to use their country’s growing economic clout. (Note: these estimates are on a purchasing power parity basis, which many economists believe makes an economy bigger than it actually is. But that’s a topic for a future commentary.)
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