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28 April 2015

Status Report on the War in Yemen

April 25, 2015

A month of air attacks by the Arab Coalition has done a lot of damage, killed about a thousand people (as many as half of them civilians) but the Shia rebels still control a third of the country, including the two largest cities (Sanaa and Aden). Losses from the ground fighting appear to be heavier but the air raids have done a lot of damage to the Shia rebels. At the same time the Shia rebels claim to be the only ones fighting AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) and ISIL (al Qaeda in Iraq and the Levant) Islamic terrorists. That is generally true as these two groups are Sunni and hate Shia big time. ISIL and AQAP are also at war with each other but that seems to have been put aside for the moment because there are so many armed Shia to go after. Because of this de facto Islamic terrorist assistance counter-terrorism efforts by government forces (mostly in disarray anyway) and various Sunni tribal militias (who outnumber the Shia but are not united and often at odds with each other) have largely lapsed. The only ones fighting the Sunni Islamic terrorists are the Shia rebels and the Americans. The bombing and continued fighting has created another 150,000 refugees. 

The Saudi coalition is using smart bombs and missiles and tried to avoid civilian casualties. But the Shia paid attention to past experience with this sort of thing and noted that using human shields worked against Western nations. So the Shia moved their bases into residential areas.

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