By Prem Mahadevan
1 April 2015
The growing profile of the ‘Islamic State’, and its rivalry with al-Qaida, has heightened fears of terror attacks on Europe. The group has injected new enthusiasm into the global jihadist project by declaring itself a ‘Caliphate’ and thereby creating an illusion of military progress relative to the operationally stagnant al-Qaida. Europe needs to brace itself for the dual task of combating threats to its citizens at home while remaining alert to the strategic implications of Islamist insurgencies overseas.
A spate of terrorist attacks in the West since summer 2014 has alerted analysts to a fresh wave of radicalism from the Middle East. The rise of the so-called ‘Islamic State’ (IS) in Iraq and Syria is the most visible explanation of this phenomenon, but its roots lie deeper. ‘Leaderless jihad’, wherein terrorist groups devolve long-range operations to unaffiliated amateurs, has developed a forward momentum alongside ‘territorial jihad’, which aims to seize control of government structures. The two types of insurrectionary doctrine are complementing each other at a global level, confronting the West with a simultaneous threat of lone-wolf attacks at home and Islamist insurgencies in the developing world.
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