March 28, 2015
The United States has joined the battle for Tikrit by bombing ISIS positions, gambling that the move will strengthen its badly eroded influence in Iraq, rather than undermine it further by handing the Iran-backed Shia militias a victory that will make them even more powerful. By asking for U.S. intervention, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is also gambling that U.S. intervention will be decisive in the success of the stalled battle, inflicting a major defeat on ISIS and humiliating the Iran-backed militias that, despite all their swagger, have proven unable to completely liberate the town. For both the United States and Abadi, this is a dangerous gamble. U.S. participation in the battle for Tikrit has already prompted some Shia militias to withdraw from the battle in protest. Unless the Iraqi army can quickly fill the vacuum, U.S. intervention may weaken Abadi and further reduce U.S. influence in Iraq. If the intervention leads to victory, the United States will share the success with the Shia militias and Iran.
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