New Report on the Taliban Resurgence in Afghanistan

Lauren McNally and Paul Bucala

March 21, 2015

The Taliban Resurgent: Threats to Afghanistan’s Security

On the eve of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s trip to Washington, DC, the Institute for the Study of War has issued a new report outlining serious and increasing threats to Afghanistan’s security

The success or failure of the U.S. mission in Afghanistan has reached a critical juncture. Newly appointed Defense Secretary Ashton Carter announced on February 21, that the United States is considering a number of changes to the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, including slowing the drawdown timetable and rethinking the U.S. counter-terrorism mission. On March 16, , anonymous U.S. officials confirmed that the United States is likely abandoning its plans to cut the number of U.S. troops to 5,500 at the end of the year. The United States could allow many of the 9,800 troops in Afghanistan to remain beyond 2015. A visit by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to Washington, DC from March 22-25 is intended to discuss these issues.

The security environment in Afghanistan as it stands warrants at least this revision of drawdown rate and timeline. The Afghan National Security Forces face numerous challenges in 2015 that may significantly hinder their capacity to assume responsibility for the country’s security.

President Ghani is a willing and welcoming potential partner in the Resolute Support Mission and wants to see both U.S. and Afghan interests met.One of Ghani’s first acts as president was to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement, and he remains a strong advocate of continued U.S. presence in Afghanistan. The United States is in a position to support Ghani as he leads Afghanistan into a new decade of transformation that includes a long-term and effective Afghan-U.S. security partnership, although he will face tough requirements to preserve the security of the country even so.

U.S. officials should consider whether Operation Resolute Support’s policy objectives, namely ensuring “stability” and “strong governance,” as well as U.S. long-term foreign policy goals can be realistically achieved in this two-year span. As Secretary of Defense Carter stated, “the U.S. has a very successful campaign in Afghanistan, but it is not finished and it needs to be won.” The risks of insufficient action are clear and threaten to reverse what progress has been made.