March 23, 2015
Most discussions of the use of ‘cyber’ as ‘fires’ supporting conventional forces focus on penetrating an enemy’s systems or networks to ‘see’ or manipulate what he ‘sees,’ disrupt or corrupt his communications, disable or damage select systems, and so on. However, there is no assurance that the specific system or network vulnerabilities attacks are designed to exploit will still be available when needed during combat. Vulnerabilities are discovered and patched all the time (though practically speaking, it is impossible to identify every single vulnerability that actually exists in a complex system). An adversary can also change his network topology or close off access points needed by the attacker at inopportune times. Lastly, an exploit is a precious thing: a single use may alert the adversary to a particular vulnerability and may even help the adversary discover new techniques or components that he can reuse in his own arsenal of exploits. Penetrative cyberattacks cannot be assured under all conditions, and may not be worth burning a relevant exploit under some conditions. This hardly means that they are impossible or not worth the costs. It does mean that we must be sober about their combat potential.
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