MAR 28, 2015
SHANGHAI – The days of double-digit economic growth in China are over. Indeed, the annual growth rate, which has been lingering at about 7.5% since 2012, is predicted to fall to 7% this year – and is likely to go lower. This is China’s “new normal,”characterized, according to China’s leaders, by “medium-to-high-speed” (instead of high-speed) growth. But perhaps even this is optimistic.
In the last two years, credit grew almost twice as fast as GDP, and total social financing grew even faster. Yet GDP growth slowed considerably – from an annual average of 10.2% in 2002-2011 – suggesting that China may be moving closer to a medium-to-low-speed growth path.
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