By M K Bhadrakumar
February 1, 2015
The US President Barack Obama’s visit has produced strange bedfellows – Indian communists on the one hand, here, and the rightwing ‘pro-American’ lobby in India, here, on the other. Of course, the Left is agonizing, while the fatcats on the Right are simply ecstatic. But they have a common thesis, its two core elements being:
The government under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is aligning India to the US’ rebalance strategy in Asia.
In essence, India is discarding its ‘antediluvian’ non-aligned policies.
There is no empirical evidence to substantiate the above two-point thesis – except the two broad assumptions bordering on wild specualtion, which have been conjured up from thin air by both communists and the fatcats, namely: a) during Obama’s visit, a “breakthrough” was achieved on the 2008 nuclear deal that is going to open vast vistas of nuclear commerce; and, b) the Joint Strategic Vision Statement on the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean signifies that India’s ‘Act East’ policies are now dovetailed (some say, ‘fused’ some others say, ‘amalgamated’) with the US’ containment strategy against China.
Of course, Obama’s visit produced no substantial results and was largely ‘symbolic’. It completely ignored Modi’s ‘Make in India’ project; the only economic content was Obama’s announcement of a $4 billion US export credit to promote the sales of US-made products in the field of ‘clean energy’ in the Indian market. Clearly, if Modi has jettisoned India’s core foreign-policy doctrine of ‘strategic autonomy’ for such meager returns, then he must be a very naïve politician – but there is no empirical evidence to show that, either.
Presumably, Modi knows what the US stated department spokesperson has since clarified (once Obama returned home):
The famous “breakthrough” on the nuclear deal is in actuality “an understanding on an administrative arrangement for implementing the US-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement”, where, “there are a range of requirements in these type of deals, and certainly, we factor in a range of factors as we make them.”
The US considers its ties with Pakistan also to as “strong, they’re vital to our strategic interests, and they stand on their own. And we work with Pakistan on a range of issues. We work with India on a range of issues.”
Now, why wouldn’t Modi know that the “breakthrough” on the nuclear deal essentially takes the tendentious item out of the purview of the bilateral talks and it is now up to the nuclear industry to consider whether the “breakthrough” is good enough for them to put such big money on the table? Frankly, the consensus view abroad among specialists is that this has all been a political gimmick.
Again, why wouldn’t Modi know that the US and Pakistan are joined at the hips on the Afghan situation, and that the US regional strategy forms part of its global strategies vis-à-vis Russia and China (where Pakistan becomes an indispensable partner)?
In fact, there is much to be said about a commentary that appeared in today’s People’s Daily in a coolly rational recap of Obama’s visit to India, titled India, the lucky dog in US-Russia rivalry. We in India did not take note that the only big statement on world politics made by Obama during his visit was regarding Russia, with a view to signal to the Indian audience that the US’ ‘new cold war’ with Russia is open-ended. Didn’t Obama know about the longstanding India-Russia relationship — and that he was embarrassing Modi who was standing next to him?
Now, didn’t Obama know that Delhi had scheduled a visit by the Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu to India just 72 hours before he began his India visit? Again, didn’t Obama know that a big-ticket item on Shoigu’s agenda was about the co-production of the futuristic fifth-generation stealth fighter aircraft under Modi’s Make in India project? Furthermore, didn’t Obama know the warm references Modi made (while receiving Shoigu in the PMO) regarding his interactions with President Vladimir Putin (who has become an incurable eyesore for the US president) and how much he is looking forward to the forthcoming visit to Russia in July?
Why is it that our strategic discourses are so pedestrian in thinking (as if politics between nations is like schoolchildren playing marbles) or to be reduced to archaic ideological straightjacket? It is sheer naivety to become euphoric or to rush into panic that during a 55-hour visit Obama just like that succeeded in hijacking India from its independent foreign policies. If he’s such a rare wizard, then, pray, why is America’s influence globally is so lamentably on the wane? We in India attach too much importance to the ‘personal chemistry’ between our leaders and their western counterparts.
The plain truth is that Modi is negotiating hard with all big powers – US, Russia and China alike. Which is how it should be. Read my opinion piece “Modi can handle China ties without US” help in Deccan Chronicle.
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