Key Takeaway:
Ukrainian and separatist forces launched surprise offensives to gain new terrain and optimize their negotiating positions ahead of peace talks in Minsk, Belarus on February 11. On the eve of the talks, the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) launched long-range strikes on a forward Ukrainian military headquarters in Kramatorsk in northern Donetsk demonstrating to Kyiv that the entire Donetsk Oblast lies in range of its “Smerch” multiple launch rocket launcher systems (MLRSs). The same day, the “Azov” Regiment of the Ukrainian National Guard launched offensive maneuvers in southern Donetsk Oblast, regaining territory that separatists might have used to launch attacks on the key port city of Mariupol. Both the DNR rocket barrage and the “Azov” Regiment’s offensive exposed their respective weaknesses in areas under their control. Both sides may have timed the surprise operations to put their opponents in conciliatory negotiating positions ahead of peace talks.
The separatist maneuver to encircle Debaltseve likely played a major role in driving Kyiv to agree a new ceasefire deal in the early hours of February 12, possibly to avoid heavy casualties. As President Vladimir Putin pointed out, the separatists want the Ukrainian forces to surrender the surrounded city but Kyiv refuses to acknowledge the city’s encirclement much less abandon it. While a successful Ukrainian operation drove separatists forces off the last standing supply route, fighting on the highway continues and neither side is likely to cede its strategic positions around the key city, which links the separatist-held capitals of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. The February 13 indirect fire attack on the city of Artemivsk, the launching point of Ukrainian operations to reinforce Debaltseve and evacuate civilians, demonstrates the separatists’ intent to capture terrain even in the aftermath of the ceasefire agreement. Reports from the Ukrainian Anti-Terror Operation (ATO) headquarters that a column of around 100 Russian tanks and MLRSs crossed into Ukraine on the night of the ceasefire negotiations may indicate that Moscow wants to set the conditions for a Ukrainian surrender at Debaltseve. The fate of Debaltseve is unlikely to be decided by the ceasefire agreement but rather by force.
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