Escalation in Ukraine

S Nihal Singh

Feb 7 2015 

Ukraine has assumed a central role in the West's confrontation with Russia as fighting is escalating and pressure is growing in Washington to arm the Ukrainian military. Thus far, the Obama administration has been supplying blankets and night vision goggles. But Russian support to rebels fighting to hold their strongholds in eastern Ukraine, in addition to sending Russian troops and equipment (officially denied), has tilted the balance against Kiev.

Behind this grim drama lies a total misreading of the situation by the West. Moscow disapproves Washington's attempt at co-opting Ukraine, a country of 45 million adjoining Russia and the cradle of Russian Orthodox Church, civilisation and folklore, into the West. With President Vladimir Putin seeking to expand his sphere of influence in the old Soviet space, the Western aim is like a red rag to a bull.

These events have also fed into Russian resentment at its treatment by the West, in proclaiming victory after the end of the Cold War, bringing NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, to the very border of post-Soviet Russia contrary to perceived promises and the military alliance's absorption of the Baltic states which were part of the old Soviet Union. For President Putin, the attempt to take away Ukraine was the last straw.

In the West’s vocabulary, the attempt to absorb Ukraine was to spread democracy throughout Eastern Europe and Western strategists had little time to heed Russian sensitivities. Last year, as Ukraine sizzled, Moscow took matters into its own hands and annexed Crimea, a predominantly ethnic Russian peninsula, the home of the Russian Black Fleet and formerly part of the Soviet Union. The West protested but implicitly accepted the annexation.

However, the main Russian objective was to prevent Ukraine from going over to the West because it was a deeply divided nation between the pro-West western portion and the pro-Moscow east and President Putin conceived it as contrary to its vital interests. His objective was to seek wide autonomy for the provinces to retain the east's traditional links with Russia. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, elected after his pro-Moscow predecessor was overthrown, had plans of going over to the West.

The West and Moscow are now flexing their muscles. There are plans to raise a rapid reaction force of 5,000 in eastern Europe ready to be deployed in two days, the biggest bolstering of the military machine in the region since the Cold War and setting up a training centre for the Ukrainian military in Georgia. Russia is, of course, under Western sanctions for its role in Ukraine and is also suffering from oil prices being halved.

The key and most portentous question remains the Western arming of Ukraine, with Russian military might next door and, despite economic problems, Russians under the leadership of President Putin are determined to protect what they view as their national interests. President Petro Poroshenko, the oligarch and so-called chocolate king, has proved adept at pulling at American heart strings. In an address to the US Congress, he said sarcastically that blankets (donated by the US) did not win battles on the field.

The candidate for the next US Defence Secretary, Mr Ashton Carter, recently told the US Senate that he was “inclined” to send weapons to Ukraine. The White House has announced that President Obama has yet to make up his mind. But he is under increasing pressure from the hawks, in particular the Republicans, to give arms.

A series of alliance meetings over the next few days will decide the shape of things to come. One major strand of opinion is that given President Putin’s increasing economic problems, he will surrender. But many others believe that given the Russian leader’s credo of vital national interests and what he views as Western cheating in the chain of events following the end of the Cold War and the break-up of the Soviet Union, he will never surrender.

The ceasefire that was signed last September lies in tatters and distrust between the two sides is growing by the day. There are many sane voices in the West warning their leaders not to fall for the fallacy that a show of force will cow down President Putin. An intriguing new development is the chink in the European armour.

The far left Syriza party's victory in Greece in recent elections has set alarm bells ringing in European Union capitals. The new Greek Prime Minister, Mr Alexius Tsipras, received the Russian ambassador as his first official visitor. Besides, the new government demurred over renewing economic sanctions against Moscow although ultimately giving in.

Not all countries in the EU are equally enthusiastic about sanctioning Russia, and even in the strongest economy Germany dissent is growing in business circles over continuing to deny German industry of valuable export orders. It is indeed a moot question how long the EU can collectively maintain an anti-Russian stance.

Indeed, with the turmoil and mayhem in the Middle East and millions of Syrian refugees living in refugee camps in neighbouring countries, there is little appetite among many strategic thinkers for adding to the catalogue of fighting and misery in the European continent itself. Yet the direction of policymakers seems to be pointing towards greater strife and killings.

If the Western objective is not to rub the Russian nose in the dirt, diplomatic solutions are possible. A federal constitution for Ukraine, recognising the nature of the east-west division and Russian affinities and interests, can be devised. In a sense, it is natural that the young in Ukraine are lured by the bright lights of the West, but the most in the east are Russian-speakers and cherish with their links and heritage from Russia.

It is all very well to say that Russia has broken the post-Cold War credo of refraining from changing borders by force. In the Russian book, the Western act in severing Kosovo to help make it independent counts as changing borders. Nobody is disputing the Crimean peninsula's affinity with Russia and the composition of the bulk of its population. The problem remains eastern Ukraine.

Fearing the catasrophic consequences of a proxy war between Russia and the West over Ukraine, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande have mounted a diplomatic offensive through visits to Kiev and Moscow.