Feb 16, 2015
Pictures recently carried by various media channels showed in graphic detail a captured Jordanian fighter pilot being burnt alive somewhere in Syria, by fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a direct derivative of Al Qaeda. The fate of a captive has been uncertain and unenviable in any war, but none more so than that of a downed ground-attack pilot, who at one moment might have been raining high explosive or incendiary ordinance on targets below, and in the next has to bail out when his aircraft is suddenly hit and incapacitated by ground fire or mechanical failure. Ground troops, who might at one instant have been cowering impotently against air attacks delivered from aircrafts, generally invisible to the naked eye, would be less than human if some amongst them did not give physical vent to pent-up rage and frustration when one of their tormentors is shot down and parachutes helplessly earthwards into their waiting hands.
The Geneva Conventions do exist, but they are often the last things in mind in the immediate aftermath of a capture, least of all by barbaric organisations like the ISIS that has never heard of the Geneva Conventions, and reject them even if they have.
Like an expanding puddle of toxic sewage, the ISIS is steadily reaching out of Syria, northwest towards Lebanon and the Turkish border, and south towards western and central Iraq. These regions have always been regarded as part of India’s near-abroad, where India has substantial economic interests, as well as a large transient Indian workforce, who are often threatened and swept into the intensifying regional conflicts there between government forces and multiple jihadi factions, some, nothing more than criminal gangs masquerading as “holy warriors”.
The ISIS is said to be headed by a supreme imam, at present, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who has issued a fatwa for the establishment of an “Islamic Republic of Khorassan”, a Khilafat or Caliphate with geographical dimensions which incorporate large parts of India as well, a clear statement of intent which is bad news for India.
The ISIS views Islam as locked in an existential conflict with the West, which has invaded “Muslim lands” a reference to foreign expeditionary forces now operating in Afghanistan, Iraq, “AfPak” and elsewhere, under the directives and leadership of the “Great Satan” America and its Nato allies. The call echoing from preachers’ pulpits, to restore the lost glories of Islam and return to its pristine (sic) sanatan form is finding many takers amongst younger generations settled outside the Islamic world, particularly those in the “corrupt” environments of Europe, America, where they enjoy lifestyles and a standards of living unthinkable in their countries of origin.
The ISIS is also feared within the Islamic world itself, where it is remorselessly gaining ground and consolidating its hold on large swathes of territory and their populations in West Asia, the Levant, and North Africa.
The ISIS is strongly inimical to the Islamic monarchies ruling over most of the Arab world, particularly Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries, whose oil wealth makes them worldwide paymasters for the development of “Islamic culture,” directed particularly at secular multi-cultural societies like India, where the community is fully integrated into public life and the national culture.
The Muslim monarchies of the combined Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), backed by Saudi Arabia and the US recognise the ISIS as their main threat, and have focused their resources on fighting it. They have pooled their airpower into a multilateral force to attack the ISIS from the air, but have been chary to similarly commit their armies as “boots on the ground” without which success will be unattainable.
Airpower alone cannot be an adequate deterrent against jihadis. The ISIS is quite the reverse, without any airpower in terms of aircraft, pilots or base facilities (at least not so far) but mustering fanatically motivated hordes of “motorised infantry” in trademark pick-up trucks, backed by a limited number of obsolescent but serviceable tanks and artillery, besides a whole range of mortars, truck-mounted air defence guns, anti-tank missiles, rocket launchers, and other heavy weapons, mostly, if not all, captured from the Iraqi Army.
Recent events in Yemen also impinge on this picture. The new regime, which has taken over the capital Sana’a, is of the Houthi tribe, essentially Shia of the Zaydi sect. It has immediately drawn the Islamic Republic of Iran into the whole equation and is likely to react to the ISIS like a red rag to a bull. Also, Yemen is contiguous with Saudi Arabia, which is very unlikely to look with favour on an Iran proxy contiguous with its borders, and may escalate the situation through covert action. The possibilities are many, and most of them spell trouble in the short or medium term.
All in all, the stage appears set for an escalation whose ripples may well lap against India.
The ISIS subscribes to the ultra orthodox Wahhabi school of Sunni Islam and its worldview is even more extreme than that of Al Qaeda, with which it has parted ideological company and is now competing with it for hearts and minds of Muslims worldwide. It is a battle that the ISIS seems to be winning.
Indian police and intelligence authorities suspect that some Indians proceeded to Iraq, ostensibly on pilgrimages, and joined the ISIS. If these reports of possible Indian recruits joining “holy wars” in West Asia (or anywhere else) have any basis at all, it is a cause for real concern, and a danger signal India can ignore only at its own peril. Because sooner or later, some survivors battle hardened and fully indoctrinated will try and return home from wars abroad to bring armed jihad to this country as well.
In this context, it should be noted that ISIS banners have been reported on the streets of Srinagar. Their advance guards may already have arrived.
The writer is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament
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