February 3, 2015
India’s intercontinental ballistic missile, Agni V, has been turned into an even more potent weapon of war. On Saturday, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) demonstrated that this missile, capable of sending a nuclear warhead to targets over 5,000 km away — thereby bringing much of China within its reach — could be launched from a truck-mounted canister. The ability to move ballistic missiles around makes it difficult for an enemy to locate and destroy them. Placed in canisters, the missiles can be easily transported and launched with great rapidity in all sorts of weather conditions. The canisters have another advantage as well — they make decoys possible. While these large truck-borne missile containers can be detected by spy satellites passing overhead and may well be noticed by observers on the ground, it will be impossible to tell those that actually carry missiles from ones that are empty. Thus, any attempt at a first strike to take out India’s nuclear-armed missiles becomes far more uncertain and therefore a risky undertaking for any adversary.
However, launching a missile from a canister is more difficult, especially when it involves a large missile like the Agni V. The missile must be ejected from the container, using a gas generator, before its first stage can be ignited. Although the DRDO had previously carried out canister launches with the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile and the 700-km-range Shourya missile, launching the Agni V in a similar fashion was still a considerable technological challenge. Hurling this 17-metre-long, 50-tonne missile clear of its container requires far greater force, which must be provided by large amounts of gas produced very rapidly. In doing so, neither the missile nor its launch system should be damaged. Saturday’s flawless launch shows that the country’s defence scientists have indeed mastered this complex technology. Three successive Agni V flight tests have gone without a hitch over the last three years and DRDO officials say the missile will be ready for induction into service after just one more trial, which will be carried out later this year. However, India’s strategic planners will need to bear in mind the fact that Pakistan and China have deployed nuclear weapons on their missiles in a way that goes beyond conventional nuclear deterrence. Rather, their strategy appears to create ambiguities over the escalation of a conventional conflict into a nuclear one. Consequently, enhancement of this country’s long-range ballistic missile capabilities must go hand-in-hand with proper planning to deal with situations that might lead to such apocalyptic weapons of mass destruction being launched.
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