By Amit Dasgupta
Tweeting that President Barack Obama would be visiting during the Republic Day celebrations was a foreign policy coup by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Amid fears that the visit would be only remembered as a logistics and security nightmare, and a series of touristy photo-ops, some advocate the need to temper expectations. In short, keep the visit as a symbolic one. After all, they argue, getting Obama to visit India is in itself a major achievement.
While symbolism matters, substantive achievements could be a policy game changer for both countries. But for this to happen, good intentions and personal rapport needs to translate into visible timelines and reforms.
Nuclear Cooperation
The Indo-US civil nuclear deal was a monumental shift in the way the two countries had perceived each other for decades. But, after signing of the deal, cooperation ceased on account of India’s tough Civil Nuclear Liability Act holding suppliers directly liable in case of an accident. US companies argue that this is against global norms. Washington, similarly, insisted that, as per domestic legislation, nuclear material supplies needed to be tracked to ascertain its whereabouts. Delhi has protested that this is intrusive, as International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards are in place.
This needs resolution. India should agree to modify its civil nuclear liability act to conform to global norms, on the condition that Washington amends its legislation regarding tracking. This will open the way for huge potential investment in the building of reactors and add to India’s much-needed energy basket.
Defence and Security Cooperation
The US has overtaken Russia as the biggest weapons supplier to India. The 10-year defence framework, which is expected to be signed would substantially enhance the scope and intensity of defence and security relations. The US has also agreed on co-development, which would provide India the platform to strengthen its defence and military capabilities. For our armed forces, this is good news, especially after the near-standstill situation regarding spare parts and acquisitions during United Progressive Alliance-2.
Cooperation also needs to be pursued in the area of cyber security and warfare, especially since both countries have been victims of Beijing’s hackers and share growing concerns about cyber-attacks from non-state actors, such as Islamic State and Al Qaida. Indian expertise in software could play a critical role in setting up firewalls and surveillance systems.
Economic Cooperation, Reforms and Ease of doing business
Speaking at the Vibrant Gujarat Summit earlier this month, John Kerry, US Secretary of State, had argued for substantially stronger and faster economic ties between both countries.
Washington has also been urging India to begin negotiations on a bilateral investment promotion and protection treaty. Additionally, US companies have expressed impatience at India’s regulations hindering investment and the ease of doing business. Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had clarified to United States Trade Representative (USTR) that India was committed to improving the investment climate and making India a lucrative destination for foreign companies. The nuts and bolts of the announcement need to be clearly enunciated.
US companies are also citing Prime Minister Modi’s flagship ‘Make in India’ as a stumbling block, as it substantially raises the cost of production.
Both countries need to realistically assess how negotiating positions may be altered, keeping long-term national and bilateral interests in mind. Given the latest forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it is in Washington’s interest to ensure that India’s growth surge is not detrimental to overall economic and social prosperity.
The ‘Make in India’ programme is, furthermore, a skill-enhancement, employment and wealth generation activity, which in turn will contribute towards India’s growth story. Washington needs to recognize this. Simultaneously, India needs to agree to take a fresh look at its opposition to multi-brand retail, which is of primary interest to US companies.
Bilaterals
The above areas are for negotiation by respective ministers and officials. The Indian prime minister and the US president will engage in bilateral discussions on a broad sweep of current developments. This will only strengthen the personal chemistry between both leaders.
It would be useful for India to welcome the historic Washington-Havana diplomatic thaw and simultaneously, express worry that isolating Moscow could draw President Vladimir Putin into Beijing’s embrace and possibly convert the Pacific into the new Cold War arena. This would have strategic and security implications that would destabilize the region.
On climate change, India needs to make the case that a curtailment of its development space would directly impact its growth trajectory. A temporary ‘exception clause’ would provide the relief that India needs.
India needs to request the removal of the three Indian oil companies [ONGC, Oil India and Indian Oil Corporation] from the list of US Government Accountability List for having done business with Iran. The companies have featured in the list since 2010, despite having ceased business relations with Iran since 2007. By featuring in the list, the companies are prevented from doing business in other countries, particularly the US and getting access to US liquefied natural gas (LNG).
The growing threat of Islamic terrorism is a matter of collective anxiety. At the same time, there is need to recognize that continued isolation of the Muslim community works towards radicalizing the young and strengthening terror groups.
India needs to, furthermore, make a pitch for a more relaxed visa regime for professionals and agree to offer a reciprocal arrangement for US nationals and companies.
Much can be achieved and the visit might well take the relationship to the next level. But then again, it can also remain restricted to a photo-op.
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