Obama: We're not at cyberwar with North Korea

http://fortune.com/2014/12/21/why-cyber-warfare-is-so-attractive-to-small-nations/

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/12/21/obama-cnn-hack-attack-north-korea-sony/20723053/

The United States is not at cyber war with North Korea, President Obama said in an interview broadcast Sunday, and will "respond proportionately" as he accused that nation of the hack attack on Sony Pictures.

David Jackson, USA TODAY 

President Obama called the attack on Sony an "act of cyber terrorism."(Photo: J. Scott Applewhite, AP)

The United States is not at cyberwar with North Korea, President Obama said in an interview broadcast Sunday, and will "respond proportionately" as he accused that nation of the hack attack on Sony Pictures.
"I don't think it was an act of war," Obama said on CNN's State of the Union. "I think it was an act of cyber vandalism that was very costly, very expensive. We take it very seriously. We will respond proportionately, as I said."
Obama also said the United States will look at returning North Korea to the list of states that sponsor terrorism. The George W. Bush administration removed it from that list in 2008 amid nuclear negotiations.
"We've got very clear criteria as to what it means for a state to sponsor terrorism," Obama said. "And we don't make those judgments just based on the news of the day. We look systematically at what's been done and based on those facts, we'll make those determinations in the future."
CNN taped the interview on Friday (before the Saturday shooting deaths of two police officers in New York City).
Critics of the president said he is underestimating the cyber threat from North Korea and other places.
"It's more than vandalism," said Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., also speaking on CNN. "It's a new form of warfare that we're involved in, and we need to react and react vigorously."
As he did during a news conference on Friday, Obama criticized Sony executives for canceling the release of The Interview, the satirical film about North Korea that prompted threats and the motive for the hacking. The plot of the Seth Rogen-James Franco comedy involves an assassination of North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un.

Video Keywords President Obama movie companies theatrical release censorshipNorth Korea Korea Haiti United States

On the heels of Obama's pointed comments, Sony Pictures Entertainment CEO Michael Lynton gave his first television interview to CNN, saying "We have not caved. We have not given in." VPC

Video Transcript

Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

North Korea has denied any involvement in the hacking.
Sony executives said they were disappointed in Obama's comments, saying they reacted to the concerns of theater owners who feared a terrorist attack if they showed the movie.
Asked about the criticism, Obama said he sympathized with Sony's business considerations. The president said he wished Sony had talked to him, and "I might have called the movie theater chains and distributors and asked them what that story was."
Pulling the film undermined the principle of free speech, Obama said.
"We believe in the right of artistic expression and things that powers that be might not like," Obama said.
The United States should not engage in self-censorship, Obama said, and the Sony incident could have ramifications for the news business. He noted that CNN itself has done critical stories on North Korea.
"What happens if, in fact, there is a breach in CNN's, you know, cyberspace?" Obama said. "Are we going to suddenly say, well, we'd better not report on North Korea?"
On other issues, Obama told CNN:
• The decision to normalize relations with Cuba gives the United States a better chance to push the communist nation toward democracy than the half-century of economic isolation has done.
"If we engage," the president said, "we have the opportunity to influence the course of events at a time when there's going to be some generational change in that country. And I think we should seize it and I intend to do so."
Some Republicans and other critics said Obama is providing benefits to Cuba without getting much in return.
Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., said on CBS's Face The Nation that Raul Castro's government in Cuba is "going to arrest people today. They arrested people yesterday. They're going to continue to crack down on opposition in the island."
• He still hopes to close the terrorist prison at the Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, by the end of his presidency on Jan. 20, 2017, saying Gitmo "is something that continues to inspire jihadists and extremists around the world."
• That critics of his foreign policy don't see the long view, using the suddenly struggling Russian President Vladimir Putin as an example.
Not long ago, "there was a spate of stories about how he is the chess master and outmaneuvering the West and outmaneuvering Mr. Obama and this and that and the other," Obama said. "And right now, he's presiding over the collapse of his currency, a major financial crisis and a huge economic contraction — that doesn't sound like somebody who has rolled me or the United States of America."
One of his critics, McCain, told CNN that Putin's problems are due to the fall in oil prices, and the subsequent drop in the value of the ruble, and even those have not curbed Russian aggression in neighboring Ukraine.
• His unique background — the son of a black father and white mother who lived in Indonesia when he was young — gives him unique insight into the nation's racial challenges.
"I've got a lot of cultural influences," Obama said, and "I assume the best rather than the worst in others. But it also makes me mindful of the fact that there's misunderstanding, there's mistrust and there are biases both overt and sometimes hidden that operate in ways that disadvantage minority communities."
Responding to critics who say he's been too reticent, Obama said: "I've seen change in my own life. So has this country. And those who would deny that, I think, actually foreclose the possibility of further progress rather than advancing it."

Pak plans counselling for traumatised children

Dec 22 2014 

Source Link

Pictures of victims of attack on Army Public School are displayed at the gate of the school in Peshawar on Sunday. Reuters

Pakistan authorities have planned counselling sessions on post traumatic stress management for hundreds of children who survived the school massacre here that killed 148 people, mostly students, a report said today.

According to an official statement, therapy sessions will be held with students, their families and teachers, to help them recover from the shock of the bloodbath perpetrated by the Taliban.

The ministry has set up a committee comprising members from mental health and non-communicable disease coordination cell of the health ministry, Army Medical Crops, psychiatrists from Islamabad and Peshawar, WHO collaborating centre and UNICEF.

The counselling facility will also be offered to students of other schools of the country in the second phase.

Another objective of the committee is to develop strategy to mitigate effects of the incident through media, it said. The plan would be finalised by the ministry by tomorrow in consultation with WHO and others.

“The army team which has been carrying out rehabilitation activities in Army Public School, Peshawar, contacted the NHS ministry and sought counselling facility for the traumatised children and families,” Assad Hafeez, the executive director, Health Services Academy said. — PTI

‘Coral bleaching in Pacific may become worst die-off in 20 years’

KARL MATHIESEN

December 22, 2014 

Scientists warn extreme sea temperatures could cause a “historic” coral reef die-off around the world over the coming months, following a massive coral bleaching already under way in the North Pacific. Experts said the coral die-off could be the worst in nearly two decades.

Reports of severe bleaching have been accumulating in the inbox of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch programme since July.

A huge swathe of the Pacific has already been affected, including the Northern Marianas Islands, Guam, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Hawaii, Kiribati and Florida. Some areas have recorded serious bleaching for the first time.

“On a global scale it’s a major bleaching event. What it may be is the beginning of a historic event,” said Coral Reef Watch coordinator Dr. Mark Eakin.

Thermal stress

In the Marshall Islands, bleaching of unprecedented severity is suspected to have hit most of the country’s 34 atolls and islands. The Guardian witnessed devastated expanses of coral that look like forests covered with snow. Warm water will soon begin hitting reefs in the southern Pacific and the Indian Ocean as the seasons and currents shift. Dr. Eakin said coral watch modelling predicts bleaching on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef as early as January. Bleaching is caused by persistent increases in sea surface temperature. Just 1°C of warming lasting a week or more can be enough to cause long-term breakdown of reef ecosystems.

The worst coral bleaching event on record is a mass die-off during 1998. A massive El Niño event combined with climate change to raise global sea and air temperatures to never-before-recorded levels and killed around 15 per cent of the world’s corals.

2014 has already surpassed 1998 as the hottest year recorded — with a mild El Niño still predicted in the new year.

Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a coral reef expert from the University of Queensland, said the current bleaching event was on track to be as bad or worse than 1998.

Is Swachhata only about litter?

RUHI SAITH

December 22, 2014

Photo: The HinduWIDENING SCOPE: “While Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan (SBA) is a programme whose time has come, individual-level action is not enough.” Picture shows New Delhi Municipal Corporation workers during the launch of the programme in New Delhi.

The programme needs to retain the momentum of a movement than that of a litter-cleaning project

“Slum districts... consisted of poorly built houses, a deficiency of ventilation and toilets, unpaved narrow streets, mud, and stomach-turning stenches due to the presence of decaying refuse and sewerage. In such conditions, ill health was observably endemic.”

This is not a description of Indian cities today (though it may well be), but of Britain around 150 years ago, prior to Britain’s sanitary reform movement, by Dr. James Kay-Shuttleworth. The movement that began in Britain and then spread to other industrialised countries like the United States was spurred in London by Edwin Chadwick’s report “Inquiry into the Sanitary Conditions of the Laboring Populations of Great Britain”. The sweeping changes it brought about in the industrialised world are believed to have saved many lives and contributed to increases in life expectancy — much more than advances in medicine like antibiotics and vaccination.

A momentous opportunity

Given rapid urbanisation and similar conditions today in our cities and towns, Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan is a programme whose time has indeed come. It is a momentous opportunity that has opened up a policy window (having caught the attention of the media, legislators and the public), especially at a time when a new health policy is being framed. At present, the focus of Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan seems to be on exhorting individuals not to litter. But the programme needs to retain the momentum of a movement rather than a litter-cleaning project. Besides, Purna Swachhata is not just about litter. As Professor A.K. Gosain, Professor of Civil Engineering at IIT Delhi, who is working on issues of urban sanitation, says, Purna Swachh requires three things to be addressed. The first is sewerage or wet waste generated from bathrooms, for which we need a proper system of sewers and sewerage treatment plants; the second is storm drainage or rain water, for which water tables need to be recharged through natural and man-made water drains which remain dry during the monsoons; and the third is solid waste which needs to be dealt with through landfill, incineration, and so on. Given the range of tasks that need to be undertaken, just sweeping litter from the roads under the carpet is not going to solve much.

Obama says Sony hack not an act of war

Dec 22, 2014

Obama and his advisers are weighing how to punish North Korea after the FBI concluded on Friday that Pyongyang was responsible. North Korea has denied it was to blame.

WASHINGTON: US President Barack Obama moved to prevent US anger at North Korea from spiraling out of control on Sunday by saying the massive hacking of Sony Pictures was not an act of war but instead was cyber-vandalism. 

Washington's longstanding dispute with North Korea, which for years has centered on its nuclear weapons program, has entered new territory with the accusation that Pyongyang carried out an assault on a major Hollywood entertainment company. 

Obama and his advisers are weighing how to punish North Korea after the FBI concluded on Friday that Pyongyang was responsible. North Korea has denied it was to blame. 

The US president put the hack in the context of a crime. 

"No, I don't think it was an act of war," he told CNN's "State of the Union" show that aired on Sunday. "I think it was an act of cyber vandalism that was very costly, very expensive. We take it very seriously. We will respond proportionately." 

Obama said one option was to return North Korea to the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, from which Pyongyang was removed six years ago. 

North Korea vowed on Sunday to hit back against any US retaliation. 

"Our toughest counteraction will be boldly taken against the White House, the Pentagon and the whole U.S. mainland, the cesspool of terrorism, by far surpassing the 'symmetric counteraction' declared by Obama," according to North Korea state news agency KCNA. 

The hack attack and subsequent threats of violence against theaters showing the film prompted Sony to withdraw a comedy, "The Interview," prepared for release to movie theaters during the holiday season. The movie depicts the fictional assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. 

Obama and free speech advocates criticized the studio's decision, but Sony Pictures Entertainment CEO Michael Lynton defended it, saying U.S. theaters did not want to show it. 

Sony lawyer David Boies said the Hollywood studio planned to release the movie at some point. 

"Sony only delayed this," Boies said on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday. "It will be distributed. How it's going to be distributed, I don't think anybody knows quite yet." 

In the CNN interview, which was taped on Friday, Obama acknowledged that in a digitized world "both state and non-state actors are going to have the capacity to disrupt our lives in all sorts of ways." 

"We have to do a much better job of guarding against that. We have to treat it like we would treat, you know, the incidence of crime, you know, in our countries." 

Sierra Leone urges safe burials to stem Ebola

Officials are resorting to increasingly desperate measures to clamp down on traditional burials in Sierra Leone, where Ebola is now spreading fastest.

DAKAR, Senegal: The radio announcement is chilling and blunt: "If I die, I want the deaths to stop with me." 

Dr Desmond Williams continues: "I want to give my family the permission to request a safe and dignified, medical burial for me." 

The announcement is part of a campaign to urge Sierra Leoneans to abandon traditional burial practices, such as relatives touching or washing the dead bodies, that are fueling the spread of Ebola in the West African country. 

Ebola has killed more than 2,000 people in Sierra Leone and unsafe burials may be responsible for up to 70 per cent of new infections, say experts. 

Officials are resorting to increasingly desperate measures to clamp down on traditional burials in Sierra Leone, where Ebola is now spreading fastest. The head of the Ebola response has even threatened to jail people who prepare the corpses of their loved ones. 

Williams, a Sierra Leonean-American doctor who works for the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, took to the airwaves last month as part of efforts to encourage people to avoid dangerous burial practices. Now similar pledges have been made by prominent Sierra Leoneans, including the communications director for the health ministry, pop stars and radio DJ's. 

But old ways are hard to break. Many believe a traditional burial is necessary to make sure the dead don't return to haunt the living. Funerals are important social occasions in the three most-affected countries, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. People often travel great distances to attend and bodies are typically washed and dressed by relatives or friends. 

Unfortunately, these practices are the perfect breeding ground for Ebola: The bodies of Ebola victims can be up to 10 times more infectious than those of people living with the disease, according to the International Federation of the Red Cross. 

Lima, a new low for climate action

MEENA MENON

AP“The failure of Lima lies in not arriving at a level playing field for a new deal.” Picture shows (from left to right) President Barack Obama, Australia's Prime Minister Tony Abbott, Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper, China's President Xi Jinping, India's Narendra Modi, Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

A climate deal cannot be achieved by endless squabbling, but by accepting responsibility and acting decisively

After nearly a fortnight of prolonged talks, some of it acrimonious, there was little that made anyone happy — except perhaps the developed world which was not called on to make any more clear-cut mitigation or financial commitments — in the Lima Call for Climate Action.

Twenty-two years after the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and five assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) — the last report of the IPCC perhaps being the most conclusive on human impacts on climate change — the world is still waiting for decisive action. As the Lima talks were going nowhere, the Peruvian Environment Minister and president of the Conference of the Parties (COP), Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, was called on to lead the consultations a day before the conference ended. Earlier, he had made a strong emotional appeal for consensus which received sustained applause from countries which had gathered there to further a new treaty in Paris and decide the scope of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC)s. After nearly 10 days of negotiations — which the European Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy, Miguel Arias Cañete, described as “exceedingly slow” — the seven-page text which emerged on December 18 was pulled out after protests, and Mr. Vidal called for a new text.

No matter for celebration

Cautionary signals

December 22, 2014 

The Mid-Year Economic Review for 2014-15 is realistic in its projection of 5.5 per cent growth during this fiscal. Economic data released last week on industrial output, trade deficit and inflation clearly show that the growth impulse is still weak and that the economy is yet to attain a steady state. The 4.2 per cent fall in industrial output recorded in October has raised doubts over the strength of the ongoing economic recovery. October, being a festival-season month, ought to have seen a rise in manufacturing to meet demand for goods, but output, especially of consumer goods, dipped. 

However, trade data for November showed a rebound in non-oil, non-gold imports — machinery imports were up by 20.32 per cent — indicating that the dip in industrial output in October may be an aberration and that November could throw up better numbers. Corroborating this assessment is the fact that the auto industry had a good month in November with car sales rising by 9.52 per cent. But in the same month, the trade deficit widened to an 18-month high due to a surge in gold imports driven by lower duties, a fall in international prices and festival season demand. Notably, the deficit widened despite a contraction in the crude oil import bill by $1.26 billion, or 9.73 per cent.

Though export growth recovered to 7.27 per cent in November after a fall during October, from hereon the going is likely to be tough for exporters given the uncertain global environment caused by falling oil prices. Petroleum products exports, which account for a fifth of India’s total exports, dipped by 14.15 per cent in November, reflecting the difficult market conditions abroad. Though it is not time to worry yet, the government and the Reserve Bank of India need to monitor the trade data closely and prepare to take corrective action on gold. What should worry policymakers is the fact that fresh investment, which is critical to the revival of growth, is just not happening. 

The Mid-Year Economic Review refers to how private investment is not picking up, and to make up for this it suggests that public investment should accelerate. This is easier said than done given the sorry state of government finances. The Review notes that there is likely to be a revenue shortfall of Rs.1.05 lakh crore during this fiscal due to overestimation in the Budget and slow revival. Indeed, meeting the fiscal deficit target of 4.1 per cent is going to be rather tricky in this backdrop. In the short term, therefore, it is difficult to see public investment as a saviour. It may at best be an option to consider in the medium term, and that is assuming there are no setbacks in the next year or two. The only way forward now is to encourage and support private investment — for which the government and the RBI need to work together.

When the second rate sets the standards

GAUTAM BHATIA

December 22, 2014

The history of being second rate is such a deep part of the Indian psyche that it is now part of the real character of being Indian. There is an implicit mistrust of something that works, does not fall apart and is efficient

Once on a site visit to a newly built hotel in Lucknow, I was appalled at the poor quality of construction: misaligned brickwork, crooked walls, windows in ill-fitted frames, light switches fixed without switch plates, broken tiles plastered over with cement. Despite pointing out the flaws, the contractor failed to understand what all the fuss was about, but finally agreed to remedy the mistakes. In the redone version some weeks later, he stood proudly by all the flawed items that had been diligently corrected; but unfortunately, he had spread his mistakes liberally and carelessly to other details: a misaligned mirror, cupboards that wouldn’t shut, window polish smeared on glass. In a place where these are acceptable standards of construction, it seemed futile to point out the errors, or suggest their correction.

Second rate has always been the only measure of quality in India, and the presence of anything first rate often leaves people gasping with surprise. When the Delhi Metro first opened nearly 12 years ago, the look of mild shock on the commuters said it all. How was it possible that a public transport of such clinical efficiency with immaculate stations and train interiors could be conceived and built in India? Isn’t it for the same reason that something as innocuous as a new bus depot or a flyover is inaugurated with unusual fanfare?

Copy and paste

So used is the Indian mind to borrowing the best from other cultures that the assumption that local skills are incapable of producing anything of value has been sadly stapled to our psyche. Two decades ago, Indian businessmen travelled abroad to European and Japanese industrial fairs merely to pick up items that could be duplicated in India at a fraction of the cost, and then resold to the country of origin. Grimy workshops in Ludhiana and Surat were kept busy duplicating Japanese machine parts, American denim, and English cutlery. It was a matter of great national pride that the world’s most successfully selling items and ideas could be copied in India. If we were second best, at least our copies were first rate.

Reflection of government services

Second best was particularly true of government services. For much too long the country’s public systems functioned on an ad hoc basis, given to chance, political whim and a promise of inefficiency. After Budget sessions, expansion of public rail was guaranteed, if only to the home village of the railway minister, as was a highway to the hometown of the minister of roads. That Air India could only be a second-rate airline, and a Hindustan Machine Tools (HMT) watch a third-rate product was obvious from the government’s endorsement of both products. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems could never function efficiently because their adoption to Indian conditions was neither studied, nor completed to detail. Systems for food distribution, or utility transmission would not work for reasons of inefficiency, incompleteness and corruption. Roads and highways fell apart after the first monsoon shower for similar reasons. The history of being second rate has been so deeply ground into the Indian psyche; it is now part of the real character of being Indian. There is an implicit mistrust of something that works, does not fall apart, is efficient and is visibly differentiated in its design and presentation. Surely it must be foreign, or assembled by foreigners.

Kashmir - The Pivot of Geopolitical Dynamics in South Asia

By Brig Amar Cheem

Source Link

20 Dec , 2014

The Mutilated Reality of J&K

Adorning the head of the Indian sub-continent, the borders of the Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) jutted northwards, connecting with the gnarled heights of the Pamirs in the north-west and its frigid deserts blending with the wilderness of Tibet in the north-east and east; her magnificence cocooned by majestic mountain ranges on all flanks. The state’s pivotal location at the cross-roads of ancient civilisations ‘was’ and ‘remains’ her bane, and it is this legacy that has bequeathed strife for her people. Despite the rhetoric, the conflict ‘for’ Kashmir is essentially ‘territorial’ by nature, as her territory acts both as a buffer and provides an avenue.

…the conflict ‘for’ Kashmir is essentially ‘territorial’ by nature, as her territory acts both as a buffer and provides an avenue.

The contending actors for strategic space may have changed to India, China and Pakistan, but ‘location’ that lay at the core for the Anglo-Russian Game in the centuries gone by, endures. General Afsir Karim has pointed out that “Pakistan’s relentless quest for Kashmir is not related to its demographic composition but to its strategic location;” by analogy, it can be extrapolated that China’s growing activism in the Gilgit-Baltistan region of occupied North Kashmir is related to strengthening her strategic collusion with Pakistan and at the same time, creating a multipurpose highway for gaining access to the region.

Historically speaking, it was because of Kashmir’s pivotal geo-strategic location that the masters of the British Indian Empire wanted the state to be part of the new nation of Pakistan if it was to fulfil its perceived role as a bulwark against socialist expansionism. At the same time, India as the heir apparent had her own strategic interests and Pundit Nehru made this clear: “India without Kashmir would cease to occupy a pivotal position on the political map of Central Asia…strategically, Kashmir is vital to the security of India; it has been so since the dawn of history.”[1]

China and India: Coping with Growing Asymmetry

December 19,2014 

http://www.theasanforum.org/china-and-india-coping-with-growing-asymmetry/ 

It is not just the GDP figure of China that has expanded to become nearly four times that of India’s; the components that constitute it reflect a picture of growing asymmetry between these two emerging Asian economies, which has deeper systemic implications. The contributions to their GDP from the agriculture, industry, and service sectors in the case of China have moved from 40:33:27 percent in 1963 to 10:44:46 percent in 2013; the shift in the case of India for the same period has been from 41:20:39 percent to 18:25:57 percent. Even by the most agreed parameters of measuring such shifts across the sectors driving a nation’s economy, these statistics clearly reveal emerging India as less developed; but, they also suggest it is distinct from rising China. Its development trajectory is following a different track with different strengths and weaknesses. (See Table 1) Accordingly, China’s armed forces personnel and nuclear arsenals may be twice those of India, but they have very distinct strategic cultures and military doctrines. Fundamentally different political systems also cast divergent images in the eyes of the world, and it is too simplistic to categorize them as strong versus weak.

Their main asset, their populations, for the same period between 1963 and 2013 has increased from 682 million to 1.357 billion in the case of China and from 477 million to 1.250 billion for India; yet, in terms of adult literacy and urbanization, China’s have evolved from 66 and 17 percent to 95 and 53 percent respectively, while India has moved from 36 percent and 18 percent to 63 and 31 percent respectively. China’s average life expectancy has moved from 46 in 1963 to 75 years for 2013, while India’s has moved from 43 to 68 years. (See Table 2) This makes India a much younger nation compared to China, which is now working hard to rectify its one-child policy of yesteryears.1 The statistics for their foreign trade (China’s over 4.1 trillion dollars compared to India’s 1.1 trillion dollars for 2013), foreign exchange reserves (China’s 4.7 trillion dollars versus India’s 300 million dollars for 2013), and inward and outward FDI make this asymmetry all the more complicated. While China remains the manufacturing hub of the entire world, India remains far ahead in several sectors with the global presence of indigenous brands like Tata, Infosys, Mittal Steel, Bharati telecom and has greater religious, cultural and diaspora visibility around the world. All these factors influence their mutual perceptions and policies toward each other, as well as other states’ policies and perceptions towards these two emerging Asian powers. Moreover, while in history they may have survived with very limited interaction, the rise of China and India in this new age of information technology driven globalization makes it impossible for these two neighbors, with disputed boundaries and contested worldviews on their past and present, to ignore each other. Rather, they see each other’s policies and perceptions as having direct impact on their own national interests, making them partners as well as rivals at the same time.

ISIS Targets Afghanistan Just as the U.S. Quits

WRITTEN BYSami YousafzaiChristopher Dickey

12.19.14 

Source Link

As the United States moves out of Afghanistan, ISIS is moving in to compete with al Qaeda and the Taliban in the legendary region of Khorasan, which also includes Pakistan and Iran. 

LONDON — Few sayings of the Prophet Mohammed have a stronger hold on the imagination of the world’s jihadists than his prophecy about the flags: "If you see the black banners coming from Khorasan, join that army, even if you have to crawl over ice,” he is supposed to have admonished the faithful. “No power will be able to stop them and they will finally reach Baitul Maqdisi”—Jerusalem— “where they will erect flags." 

And where was this magical land of Khorasan, whence the conquerors would come? Think Afghanistan and pieces of all the countries that surround it, including and especially Iran. 

For the great ideologues of modern jihadist terror, Ayman al Zawahiri of al Qaeda and Abu Bakr al Baghdadi of the so-called Islamic State, the strategic and symbolic importance of Khorasan is huge, and there are already signs that they are competing for control there. Some factions of both the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban and some members of al Qaeda in the area have pledged allegiance to Baghdadi’s self-proclaimed caliphate in Syria and Iraq. Zawahiri’s most elite group of operatives, meanwhile, has become known as the Khorasan Group. 

As terrorists compete for prestige and authority, they are under attack by the governments of the region. To make their mark on the minds of potential followers, they carry out ever more desperate and horrifying acts, like the slaughter of children at a school in Peshawar, Pakistan, earlier this week. 

A central figure in these dangerous wider developments is a soft-spoken scholar, journalist and poet, Sheikh Abdul Rahim Muslim Dost, who spent more than three years as a prisoner of the Americans at Guantanamo, then found himself imprisoned again by the Pakistanis. News reports in the region recently named his as the Islamic State-appointed governor or wali of Khorasan. 

Dragon on the High Seas: China's 3 Most Lethal Weapons of War on the Water

Kyle Mizokami

December 20, 2014 

Source Link

Chinese military might is growing—especially in the waters of the Pacific Ocean. 

Modern China has finally achieved a long-held dream: secure land borders. The Mongols, western colonial empires and the Japanese have all carved out significant portions of the country in the past. Although China could never be truly conquered, such disruptions caused considerable loss of life and property and halted Chinese political and economic progress. China is now free to develop however it wishes.

Part of China’s new direction is the creation of a modern, world-class navy. The protection of Chinese interests, which are now global, the support of Chinese territorial claims and the ability, if necessary, to keep the Americans at bay are key goals. To support those goals, China is building everything from new patrol boats to aircraft carriers. With that in mind, here are three of China’s most lethal weapons of war on the water.

Type 052C/D Anti-Air Warfare Destroyer

The 052C/D series of destroyers are designed primarily with the air defense mission in mind, protecting high-value naval assets such as aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships. The ships resemble the U.S. Arleigh Burke and UK Daring class anti-air warfare destroyers both externally and in mission.

The Type 052C/D destroyers are equipped with sixty vertical-launch missile silos, located just behind the 100mm main gun turret. The destroyers are thought to be identical except the Type 052C is equipped with revolver-like missile silos, while the 052D is equipped with individual silos similar to the U.S. Mk. 41.

The 052C/D destroyers are armed with the HQ-9 “Red Banner” surface-to-air missile, a descendant of the Russian land-based S-300. Similar to the American SM-2 sea-based interceptor, the Red Banner has a maximum speed of around Mach 4 and a range of 124 miles. The HQ-9 has a wide engagement envelope, capable of intercepting everything from low-flying cruise missiles to ballistic missiles.

Like the Burke class, the 052C/Ds have a fairly well-rounded armament suite, making them capable of just about any sort of mission. Each carries eight YJ-62 anti-ship cruise missiles. Externally resembling the U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile, the YJ-62 has a range of 280 kilometers and may also have a land-attack role.

China is Planning to Purge Foreign Technology and Replace With Homegrown Suppliers

By Bloomberg News

Dec 18, 2014 

Source Link

A laborer inspects a Huawei Technologies Co. base unit on a pole in the financial district of Beijing, China. 

China is aiming to purge most foreign technology from banks, the military, state-owned enterprises and key government agencies by 2020, stepping up efforts to shift to Chinese suppliers, according to people familiar with the effort.

The push comes after a test of domestic alternatives in the northeastern city of Siping that was deemed a success, said the people, who asked not to be named because the details aren’t public. Workers there replaced Microsoft Corp.’s (MSFT) Windows with a homegrown operating system called NeoKylin and swapped foreign servers for ones made by China’s Inspur Group Ltd., they said.

The plan for changes in four segments of the economy is driven by national security concerns and marks an increasingly determined move away from foreign suppliers under President Xi Jinping, the people said. The campaign could have lasting consequences for U.S. companies including Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Intel Corp. (INTC) and Hewlett-Packard Co.

“The shift is real,” said Charlie Dai, a Beijing-based analyst for Forrester Research Inc. “We have seen emerging cases of replacing foreign products at all layers from application, middleware down to the infrastructure software and hardware.”

The plan for changes in four segments of the economy is driven by national security... Read 

Security Panel

Was 2012 Killing of Syrian Dictator’s Powerful Brother-in-Law An Inside Job?

Sam Dagher

December 20, 2014

Syrian Bomb Plot Marked Deadly Turn in Civil War

AL-QARDAHA, Syria—On the fourth day of a rebel assault on President Bashar al-Assad ’s seat of power in Damascus, an explosion tore through offices of the National Security Bureau, killing the president’s brother-in-law and three other senior officials.

Rebel groups claimed credit for the audacious plot, and Syrian opposition groups declared it was the beginning of the end for the regime. In Washington, the Obama administration ordered a task force from the Pentagon, State and Treasury to draw up plans for a post-Assad Syria, said Robert Ford, the U.S. ambassador to Syria at the time.

The July 2012 bombing indeed marked a turning point in Syria’s conflict. But rather than the downfall of Mr. Assad, it ushered in a new, more deadly phase of Syria’s civil war that allowed him to cling to power. Any regime voices still open to accommodating the opposition went silent, and, within a year, pro-Assad forces deployed chemical weapons against rebels and civilians.

Now, new revelations point to a startling theory about the bombing that killed Assef Shawkat, an army general who was Mr. Assad’s brother-in-law and the deputy defense minister: It was an inside job.

Two dozen people, including past and current regime officials, opposition leaders, activists and rebels, and politicians in neighboring countries with ties to Mr. Assad told The Wall Street Journal the bombing grew out of a split between the Assad family and its hard-line allies on one side, and officials seeking negotiations with opposition groups on the other.

Acceptance of the theory by such a broad cross-section of Syrians highlights the ruthless reputation Mr. Assad has cemented since the conflict began more than three years ago. It also shows the dynamic of the president’s inner circle as it struggled to keep a grip on power.

Mr. Assad’s media office rejected requests for an interview with the president. Maj. Gen. Ali Mamlouk and Maj. Gen. Deeb Zeitoun, two of the regime’s top security officials, declined separate requests for comment.

Former Syrian army general Manaf Tlass believes the regime was connected with the bombing. Mr. Tlass defected two weeks before Mr. Shawkat was killed—after guards found six explosive devices planted outside Mr. Tlass’s office on a military base in Damascus. He accused the regime of wanting to kill him, too.

Mr. Tlass said he and Mr. Shawkat were among those calling for talks with both peaceful and armed regime opponents, a position contrary to Mr. Assad and his intelligence and security agency chiefs, who sought to crush the insurgency.

“Bashar never opted at any time for serious and credible reforms, but instead chose to destroy the country rather than lose power,” said Mr. Tlass, who is living in Paris. “He sold Syria to the Iranians.”

The attack opened the door for Iran, Mr. Assad’s principal regional ally, and Hezbollah, its proxy militia in Lebanon, to play a greater role in defending the regime, according to members of Syria’s security forces and pro-regime militias. Within weeks, foreign Shiite militiamen flocked to Syria. The fighters joined homegrown militias trained by Iran and Hezbollah to help prop up the overstretched Syrian army.

These fighters took the lead in the regime’s recapture of rebel territory, helping push the death toll from less than 20,000 at the time to more than 190,000 as of August, according to the United Nations. Millions more Syrians have fled their homes amid the destruction.

CAN POLITICAL STRUGGLE AGAINST ISIL SUCCEED WHERE VIOLENCE CANNOT?

Maciej Bartkowski

December 20, 2014

It is widely believed that violent savages such as those fighting on behalf of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) understand only force. This default thinking is reinforced by policymakers’ ready access to military tools. However, violent action is often counterproductive and nonviolent strategies for dealing with ISIL have unexamined potential.

A Counterproductive Violence

ISIL’s unquestioned brutality has encouraged the formation of an international coalition to fight it. This coalition is presently engaged in a bombing campaign though “boots on the ground” are beginning to look more and more likely. Historically, however, armed interventions have a poor record of ending violent conflicts—something not acknowledged enough in U.S. policy and security circles. External armed interventions tend to extend the duration of civil wars and even worse, increase the number of civilians killed. A country has a more than 40% chance of relapsing into civil war within 10 years if the conflict is resolved through violent means. In addition, such military campaigns are expensive. The U.S. military campaign against ISIL has already cost close to $1 billion, while the total cost by the end of the year could range between $2.4 billion and $3.8 billion.

The bombing campaign against ISIL has already created unintended though foreseeable consequences. It increased admiration for ISIL, encouraged other jihadist groups—including some from Egypt, Algeria, Yemen and Libya—to declare their allegiance to ISIL, and potentially caused the divided Syrian jihadist groups to contemplate closercooperation. Perhaps even more importantly, the bombing is generating growing anger among ordinary people on the ground who would not necessarily support jihadists but are now blaming the American-led intervention for food and fuel shortages, power blackouts, and civilian casualties.

ISIL’s Survival Depends on the Local Population

Turkey's Strategic Choices

Kemal Kirisci

December 19, 2014 

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/turkeys-strategic-choices-11898?page=show

Over the last few weeks, a number of prominent world leaders have called on Turkey.

Late in November, for example, Vice President Joe Biden was in Turkey to discuss cooperating against the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria. His visit was followed by that of Russian President Vladimir Putin. This month it was Frederica Mogherini’s turn, the European Union’s new foreign policy chief. Her visit coincided with ones by Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskite, British Prime Minister David Cameron, and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who also holds the presidency of the European Council.

Clearly, Turkey is in high demand, but which way will Turkey actually go: East or West. East represents a world with an emphasis on sovereign democracy, state capitalism, authoritarianism, populism and the rise of religiously driven nationalism, in contrast to a West traditionally associated with liberal democracy and markets predicated on the rule of law, transparency, and accountability. Here Putin’s Russia offers a good approximation of the East compared to the transatlantic community which represents the West. It will be important to sustain the pace of these visits from members of the transatlantic community and match them with deeds to revitalize Turkey’s relations with the West, especially economic ties.

It is no surprise that Turkey is in high demand. It sits in the midst of a neighborhood in a chronic state of upheaval. Across the Black Sea, Putin’s Russia has annexed Crimea and continues to destabilize eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, Russia continues to perpetuate frozen conflicts of the post-Soviet space from Transnistria in Moldova to Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan.

However, no challenge has been greater for Turkey than the instability in Iraq and Syria. Turkey is hosting a refugee population fast approaching two million and is far from seeing the moderate opposition gain the upper hand and replace Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Instead, the emergence of IS has further exacerbated the situation and led to Turkey being portrayed in Western media as both a key player in efforts to “degrade and ultimately defeat” IS as well as a spoiler of these efforts. The latter portrayal is often based in part on Turkey’s reluctance to support the Kurdish resistance to IS’s onslaught on the Kurdish town of Kobani located on the Syrian-Turkish border. Some have gone so far as to accuse Turkey of directly assisting IS.

The need to improve relations with Turkey and better coordinate the fight against IS brought Biden to Turkey. The visit came on the heels of deep policy differences between the U.S. and Turkey over how to deal with IS. The U.S. emphasized the immediate threat from IS and the need for Turkey to be more forthcoming in its support to defeat IS militarily. For his part, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insisted on the need to create no-fly zones along the Turkish border to increase pressure on al-Assad and bring about regime change.

Even 'Novorossiya' Isn't that into Russia Anymore

Posted by Joel Weickgenant 

December 16, 2014

Source Link

Ukraine's East-West divide has been bridged in at least one respect: From the Black Sea to the steppes, Ukrainians of every stripe have turned their back on Russia.

Gallup went to work in Ukraine - everywhere except the separatist-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Russia-annexed Crimea - to ask the citizens of that unsteady nation what they think about the leadership of the European Union, Russia, and the United States. The findings reveal that no matter what their feelings are toward the EuroMaidan movement that toppled Viktor Yanukovych, Ukrainians have no appettite for further Russian interference.

As Julie Ray and Neli Esipova put it: "Any kinship Ukrainians used to feel with Moscow's leadership is gone after Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region in March."

In a companion survey, Gallup found that Ukrainians by wide margins prioritize relations with the European Union and the United States, even at the cost of hurting relations with Russia. Here regional preferences shade the results, but even in South and East Ukraine - the area Moscow has relabeled as Novorossiya - only one in four respondents favored closer relations with Russia if this came at the expense of Ukraine's relationship with the West.

If Gallup's snapshot is correct, such a notable change in sentiment means that any surprise Putin has in store will probably not involve a military effort to lay claim to "Novorossiya." It seems far more likely now that an already difficult military advance would be further complicated by a broader insurgency. As Stratfor analyst Lauren Goodrich pointed out in March: "The population in eastern Ukraine may be pro-Russian at this moment, may be talking about annexation themselves, but once you have Russian tanks roll down your street, you're not so pro-Russian anymore." Funny how an invasion will do that.

If the window for military action is closing, political instability in Kiev leaves plenty of openings for an opportunist Moscow to exploit. Russia after all doesn't need to overtly control Kiev, only to keep it weak and pliant. Gallup further found that views of the West - in particular of Germany - remain ambivalent, as Ukrainians wonder whether the West has the will to firmly back Ukraine against Moscow.

The Most Dangerous Nuclear Threat No One Is Talking About

Zachary Keck

December 19, 2014 

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-most-dangerous-nuclear-threat-no-one-talking-about-11899

While Iran and North Korea’s nuclear programs are all the rage these days, the most dangerous nuclear threat facing the world continues to go largely unnoticed.

Namely, China and India are both on the cusp of deploying multiple independently targetable reentry (MIRV) vehicles on their ballistic missiles, a development that is likely to have profound, far-reaching consequences for the region and beyond.

MIRVed missiles carry payloads of several nuclear warheads each capable of being directed at a different set of targets. They are considered extremely destabilizing to the strategic balance primarily because they place a premium on striking first and create a “use em or lose em” nuclear mentality.

Along with being less vulnerable to anti-ballistic missile systems, this is true for two primary reasons. First, and most obviously, a single MIRVed missile can be used to eliminate numerous enemy nuclear sites simultaneously. Thus, theoretically at least, only a small portion of an adversary’s missile force would be necessary to completely eliminate one’s strategic deterrent. Secondly, MIRVed missiles enable countries to use cross-targeting techniques of employing two or more missiles against a single target, which increases the kill probability.

Russia's Arctic opportunity

Luke Coffey

19 Dec 2014

Russia is already militarily securing the new economic opportunities that melting ice in the Arctic is uncovering.

Luke Coffey is a research fellow specialising in transatlantic and Eurasian security at a Washington DC based think tank. He previously served as a special adviser to the British defence secretary and was a commissioned officer in the United States army. 

The Arctic region is an area of low conflict, and it is in everyone's interest to keep it that way, writes Coffey [Getty Images] 

In 1904, Russia and Japan went to war over control of the Liaodong Peninsula in modern day China. Russia needed a year-round ice-free port for its naval fleet and Imperial Japan saw this encroachment as a threat. After early setbacks in the war, Russia needed to quickly reinforce its naval fleet in the Pacific Ocean with its Baltic Fleet.

With its Baltic Fleet literally on the other side of the world, Russia's options were limited. Ice blocked the route along Russia's northern coastline - known today as the Northern Sea Route. The British blocked access to the Suez Canal. It finally took the Baltic Fleet seven months to get to the Sea of Japan via the Cape of Good Hope. The fleet arrived knackered and ill-prepared for battle.

On May 28, 1905, nearly the entire Russian fleet was destroyed during the Battle of Tsushima - Russia had no choice but to sue for peace.

If Arctic ice continues to decrease at its current rate it is possible Russia will not have this problem in the future. Each year more ships are making the journey through the Northern Sea Route. In some cases this reduces the distance between European and north Asian ports by 30 percent.

Using Northern Sea routes