Time to work together with the dragon

Subir Bhaumik

December 9

In the same week that the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, promised that his government was "acting East" and not just looking East and the president of the United States of America, Barack Obama, hugged Aung San Suu Kyi to promise her American support for democratic reforms, China and Myanmar quietly signed more than 20 deals worth over US $8 billion. The slew of deals indicated that China was still very much on top of others competing with its influence in the once reclusive state.

The trade deals included a US $200 million small-loan facility for fighting poverty and an agreement to import 100,000 tonnes of Myanmarese rice to China. Li held talks with Myanmar's president, Thein Sein, and firmly supported Myanmar to continue developing in the way that suited it best, with a promise to deepen bilateral cooperation. The deals signed between China and strategically located, resource-rich Myanmar cover trade, agriculture, finance and energy. Li said that China had a sufficient supply of rice but it would import the staple from its neighbour after "considering the needs of Myanmar". The Chinese premier said these deals will "help improve the livelihoods of the people of Myanmar". That is significant as it drove home the point that while India was talking of 'acting East' and promising some forward movement on the new three-nation highway connecting Northeast India with Thailand through Myanmar, China was pushing to quietly reinforce its close ties by helping out Myanmar on bread-and-butter issues.

Traditionally, China and Myanmar have enjoyed close ties, with Myanmar relying on its powerful neighbour for economic and diplomatic support when it was under Western sanctions before embarking on political reforms four years ago. Those reforms made Beijing nervous as the government that replaced the military junta appeared to be courting Washington. The shift in relations was highlighted in 2011 when Thein Sein suspended work on the US $3.6 billion Chinese-led Myitsone hydroelectric dam project over environmental concerns. This was perhaps done to placate the Kachins in whose state the project was located. The Kachins complained of getting no electricity for their own region as the entire output was earmarked for export to China.

So when Li told Thein Sein that China would encourage it to develop in the way "that suited it best", it was a clear hint that Beijing would not seek to interfere to push the democracy agenda as the US would and India might. It only wanted Myanmar to allow more Chinese companies to help build the country's infrastructure. This could be seen as a clever attempt to win back the confidence of Myanmar's new rulers - generals in civilian garb - by stressing that China was not merely a dependable friend when it came to crucial economic aid or support (rice purchase ) but also a nation that would never interfere in Myanmar's internal affairs by pushing for democracy. If the US pushes Thein Sein on the democracy issue and for electoral law changes to allow Aung Sang Suu Kyi to contest for presidency, Thein Sein and his coterie of generals in civvies will swing back to China's embrace. By signing the deals with China in the same week as the visits by Obama and Modi to Myanmar, Thein Sein has given sufficient indications to thateffect.

So what lessons do this bear out for India, which is seeking to 'look East' through Myanmar to boost the economies of its relatively under-developed and much-troubled northeastern region? India should realize that its profile in Myanmar is nowhere near that of China. It does not have the wherewithal to counter Chinese influence in the pagoda nation, notwithstanding the sound and fury of Modi's posturing there. The sooner this is realized by Indian diplomats in South Block, the better. It is, therefore, not advisable to chart a course of competition or confrontation with our northern neighbour in a country crucial for the success of India's 'Look East' policy. There is no way India would gain any influence in Myanmar if it is seen as part of the 'ganging up' against China to contain Chinese influence. It serves India much better if the country joins China to push ahead the BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) growth corridor proposed by Beijing. This would bring in huge Chinese investments to the under-developed regions of India, Myanmar and Bangladesh. A multilateral cooperation format would be better to ensure Sino-Indian cooperation in the two countries they are needed the most - Myanmar and Bangladesh. A tacit Sino-Indian understanding helped boost support for Sheikh Hasina Wajed when she was under US pressure during the parliamentary elections. It is still needed to secure India's best possible ally in Bangladesh. Myanmar is crucial to India's Look East thrust, and it is not in India's interest if the pagoda nation morphs into a Sino-US battlefield, something that Bertil Lintner suspects could be the case.

The proposed BCIM economic corridor, which Modi somewhat swept under the carpet during Xi Jinping's visit to India, is capable of bringing much-needed investment to the northeastern states. There is considerable angst in the Northeast on that score. Many anti-BJP campaigners are openly questioning Modi's commitment to the region and his Gujarat overdrive as unbecoming of an Indian prime minister.

The Assamese member of parliament, Sushmita Dev, has already pitched hard for BCIM because the proposed four-nation highway passes through her hometown, Silchar. Many like her feel that by nixing the BCIM, Modi has pandered to the classic Delhi double standard of accepting Chinese investments elsewhere in India and denying the same in the Northeast because of the region's proximity to China. Modi can revive the BCIM's prospects by boosting the Kolkata-Kunming Forum which, recently, decided to request Beijing and Delhi to open the Kolkata-Kunming corridor to unrestricted tourism for 2015. That is when the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II is. Going by the mad rush of tourists to the battlefields of the First World War which is in its centenary year, the prospects of a huge tourist inflow is expected if one gets to freely visit the Kohima-Imphal battlefields or the Stilwell Road that kept China in the fight.

War nostalgia tourism won't need big-time infrastructure like 5-star hotels. Decent tent accommodation, clean water and sanitation and medical care are good enough to give the tourists from the West, Japan, India and China a good enough feel of the War . And this is one battle theatre that not only swung the fortunes of the War in Asia but also gave the nations that fought here enough heroes to celebrate. Indians have Subhas Chandra Bose and the legends of the Indian National Army; Japan has the heroic fighters led by General Mutaguchi who brought the armies of Nippon this far; Americans would have Stilwell and the British their Orde Wingates and Bill Slim to remember. Day-time tours of the war sites and graves - some are well-maintained - and evening-time screenings of relevant war films would make it an experience to remember for the tourists. If India and China are grappling with how to take BCIM forward, the opening of the K2K corridor for a year in 2015 to unrestricted tourism with the prospect of big returns to backward local economies may be a good way to go about it. The K2K forum is a halfway post for both sides to work out a bilateral agenda to bring their frontier regions closer.