13 December 2014

JAMMU AND KASHMIR: DESPERATE ATTACKS ON INDIA’S DEMOCRACY – ANALYSIS

By Dr. Binodkumar Singh
DECEMBER 12, 2014


Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has witnessed continuous decline in terrorism-related fatalities since the peak of 4,507 in 2001. But, the recent multiple attacks in J&K, concentrated in areas going to polls, are seen as an attempt by militant outfits to instill a sense of fear among the voters.

Elections for 87 seats in J&K assembly are being held in five phases – on Nov 25, Dec 2, Dec 9, Dec 14 and Dec 20 respectively. Remarkably, surpassing the record of 2008 assembly elections and April-May 2014 Lok Sabha (Lower House of Indian Parliament) polls, a brisk 71.28 percent turnout was recorded in the first phase of polling for 15 assembly constituencies, with people defying various odds including election boycott call given by the separatists and adverse weather conditions with a cold wave sweeping many parts of the region. Again, in the second phase, 18 assembly constituencies witnessed heavy turnout of 72.1 percent on Dec 2.

Desperate after the record turnout in the first two phases of polling, after a long time, 21 people, including 11 Security Force (SF) personnel, two civilians and eight militants were killed as a series of four terror attacks rocked Kashmir Valley on Dec 5. In fact, the last time an attack of such magnitude happened was on May 23, 2004, in which 30 people, including 19 Border Security Force (BSF) personnel, six women and five children, were killed in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosion at Lower Munda, near Qazigund, on the Srinagar-Jammu highway.

On Nov 14, intelligence agencies had already warned that Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) militants may disrupt the assembly election by attacking security convoys and political workers in Kashmir. Similarly, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) Public Relations Officer (PRO) Kishore Prasad on Nov 16 said that the militants may try to disrupt the polling in Kashmir. As expected, JeM on Nov 18, warned the voters in Kashmir to stay away from the assembly elections. JeM spokesperson Mohammad Hassan Shah, in a statement said: “The people of J&K should hold in high esteem the sacrifices and blood offered by the martyrs for the ongoing movement. We appeal people not to take any part in the election process and keep the sacrifices of the martyrs in mind.”

Condemning the attacks, former chief minister and senior Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad on Dec 5 held Pakistan and some internal forces responsible for the multiple attacks that rocked Kashmir Valley. Meanwhile, the army on Dec 6 said food packets found on six slain militants, involved in the daring attack on the Uri camp in North Kashmir’s Baramulla district, bore marks of the Pakistani establishment. The army was also taken aback at the “high-end equipment” being found on the infiltrators killed on the Line of Control (LoC) or during terrorist attacks in the hinterland. The six terrorists killed in Nowgam sector of Kupwara district on Dec 2, for instance, were all wearing Koflach mountaineering boots costing $200-300 apiece.


With clear signs of normalcy returning to the state, Islamabad has changed its strategies. First of all it started helping more and more militants to infiltrate. Not surprisingly, infiltration attempts were increased. An unnamed official in the Department of Internal Security and J&K Affairs in the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) on Aug 31, 2014, informed that about 60 militants have succeeded in entering into J&K in 2014. “The first successful infiltration bid has taken place in May this year in Keran Sector of Kupwara district in which 14 militants entered the Valley. There have been eight more successful infiltration bids so far in 2014,” he added. The official further claimed, “Of 60 infiltrated militants, the forces have killed 14 in different encounters so far.” Earlier, on Aug 20, a report said that at least 200 trained terrorists were waiting across the border to infiltrate into India and target vital installations across the country and more than 40 militants have successfully infiltrated through the International Border.

Further, failing to achieve the desired result, the Pakistani troops started violating the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) signed on Nov 26, 2003, on a regular basis. Latest such incident being on the eve of the third phase of polling in the state in which Pakistani troops on Dec 8 night violated the ceasefire by resorting to small arms firing on some forward posts along the LoC in Poonch district. According to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) statistics, a total of 545 incidents of ceasefire violation have taken place along the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB) till Nov 25, 2014. Of these, 395 incidents of ceasefire violation have taken place along the IB and 150 incidents took place at LoC till Nov 25. There were 199 incidents of ceasefire violation along the LoC in 2013 and 148 along IB in 2012.

Minister of State for Home Kiren Rijiju on July 15, 2014, in a written reply in Lok Sabha said that a total of 43 attempts of infiltration along the Indo-Pakistan border have taken place till May in 2014. He added that 277 such attempts were made during 2013 while in 2012, they were 264. He also said that till July 11, 2014, a total of 42 incidents of ceasefire violation have taken place along the LoC and IB in J&K. Meanwhile, in a written reply, minister of state for external affairs V.K. Singh on Nov 27 said in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Indian Parliament) that there were 363 ceasefire violations along the IB and 61 on the LoC in J&K between August and Nov 17.

With the drawdown of US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) combat command in Afghanistan on Dec 8, there is strong apprehension of Islamabad redirecting more of the fighters towards J&K in an effort to escalate the level of violence in the state. However, the successful conduct of elections and installation of an efficient government will give a befitting reply to any such design, and the march towards normalcy could be continued in the coming years.

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