December 28, 2014
The danger of war in Europe is higher than it’s been for the last half century. Since the end of the Cold War, the continent has lacked a security doctrine, says DW’s Christian F. Trippe.
Bilder aus der Ukraine – Agenturfotograf Bulent Kilic oto credit should read BULENT KILIC/AFP/Getty Images)
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall 25 years ago, war between two European states has been practically unimaginable. But Russia is now forcing the allies in the European Union and NATO to think the unthinkable.
There is no shortage of scenarios in which a comparatively “small” regional conflict in eastern Ukraine could turn into a global crisis. Russia could find a reason to openly intervene in Donetsk, in response to its desperate humanitarian situation, or the US could begin supplying Ukraine with weapons – or even directly intervene with airstrikes on rebel positions and be pulled into the crisis.
The partially rudderless discussion over how Ukraine can be effectively helped reflects NATO’s helplessness. There is currently no security doctrine and no strategy to respond to this new threat from the East. Western politicians have reacted with consternation to the Kremlin’s military show of force in the wake of the Ukraine crisis.
01.2012 DW Europa aktuell Moderator Christian Trippe
Dangerous maneuvers
Hardly a day goes by when Russian war planes aren’t spotted over the Baltic Sea, flying in the airspace of the three Baltic – and EU – states. Some of these maneuvers have been extremely dangerous: the Russian military planes have a habit of turning off their transponders, rendering them invisible to civilian aircraft.
The list of serious incidents in the Baltic region is growing by the day. One day, an armada of Russian warships suddenly shows up off the coast of Lithuania, the next an unidentified underwater vehicle is spotted in Sweden’s territorial waters. In response, Sweden now intends to call in additional reservists for military exercises.
Back to the Cold War
In recent months, the three Baltic states have placed weapons orders to the tune of more than one billion euros ($1.2 billion) – anti-tank systems in particular. In the early summer, Russian forces undertook large scale maneuvers not far from their borders. All of this has been accompanied by Russia’s thundering rhetoric against Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
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