Anatomy of a diplomatic handshake

ASHOK K. MEHTA

Reuters“Thawing the cold India-Pakistan relations became paramount at the SAARC summit in Kathmandu.” Picture shows the leaders of the two countries at the summit.

Contrary to reports, the hugely publicised handshake between Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi at the SAARC summit was preceded by other exchanges of pleasantries

On November 27, the second day of the SAARC summit, Kathmandu newspapers showed a grim looking Nawaz Sharif and a grumpy looking Narendra Modi on their front pages. Both were sitting on the dais, seemingly oblivious to each other, with the Kathmandu Post headline reading: “So close yet so far.” Tensions between India and Pakistan had clouded the SAARC summit with the Kathmandu Declaration also in trouble due to Islamabad expressing reservations over three proposed regional agreements for connectivity and integration: motor vehicles, rail and energy cooperation. Regionalism, bilateralism and sub-regionalism are all enmeshed in a SAARC hostage to the perennial coldness between New Delhi and Islamabad.

Thawing the cold relations became paramount. Contrary to visuals and reports, the hugely publicised long handshake between Mr. Sharif and Mr. Modi at the end of the concluding session of the summit was actually preceded by at least two other exchanges of pleasantries: the first was in the holding half prior to the inaugural session where leaders arrive in country-alphabetical order. Mr. Modi, having reached before Mr. Sharif, shook his hand the second time after his own inaugural in New Delhi in May this year. At the Dhulikhel retreat they shook hands a second time around, and went unaccompanied by aides for a walk in the woods around Dwarika Shangri La. After that they sat around the same table at lunch. They also met during Nepal Prime Minister Sushil Koirala and President Ram Baran Yadav’s banquets. The display of bonhomie was aplenty, but without any public ‘evidence’ other than the November 27 handshake where an animated conversation could be deciphered through lip reading. Elsewhere, cloak and dagger stories were doing the rounds: like for example, miffed by India’s refusal to resume the composite dialogue, Mr. Sharif was prepared to wreck the summit.

Breaking the deadlock

A day before, on November 26, Foreign Ministers hit a cul-de-sac. The Kathmandu Declaration was deadlocked. While India wanted all the three agreements or none, Pakistan blocked all three saying it had to take its four provinces along. The Declaration document was sent to Mr. Koirala who had to do some back-channelling in order to create a level-playing field at Dhulikhel. He told Mr. Modi that he was the regional leader and must act appropriately; otherwise there would be no worthwhile Kathmandu Declaration. The Modi-Sharif walk in the woods broke the ice as did the charmed yellow scarf of Goddess Baglamukhi in Patan that the leaders wore at the retreat. Before the sun set over the majestic Mount Everest visible from Dhulikhel, a compromise had been cobbled together. Both Mr. Sharif and Mr. Modi had agreed to the electricity cooperation agreement, and with gentle persuasion, Mr. Sharif also agreed to SAARC transport Ministers hammering out an agreement on motor and rail connectivity within three months.

“The takeaways from Kathmandu were images of Mr. Sharif and Mr. Modi, transformed from being grim and grumpy at the inaugural session to beaming and blushing at the concluding ceremony”

A visibly relieved Mr. Koirala flew back to Kathmandu to rework the Kathmandu Declaration, which contained at least one agreement on power cooperation. The motor and rail connectivity pacts have been in the works for the last eight years and may soon see the light of day when India-Pakistan tensions relax. It is tragic that yet another opportunity was missed in reviving the stalled India-Pakistan dialogue. India cannot be a great power without tackling outstanding issues with Pakistan and not letting them fester. SAARC fortunes and regional growth are tied to this critical relationship. Not just the coldness between India and Pakistan, but also Islamabad’s efforts to push Beijing, currently an observer on SAARC, for an enhanced role cast a shadow. At this rate, only modest and incremental progress can be expected from SAARC. Conversation has begun on reviewing the SAARC charter to consider including bilateral issues; permit sub-regional groupings and replace unanimity with majority vote.

Bilateral meetings were held among all eight countries except India and Pakistan. The India-Nepal bilateral was a whopping success. Mr. Modi, in fact, spent a third of his time in this and meeting leaders of Nepal’s fractured political parties. Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval skipped some events to interact with all hues of leaders to get the once-failed constitution ready by the January 22, 2015 deadline. Mr. Modi even offered advice on drafting the constitution through consensus and not voting, as this could lead to problems later. With his ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy working brilliantly in Nepal, bilateral ties have been transformed dramatically in just four months after his first visit to Nepal earlier this year when he captured the hearts and minds of all Nepalese. Hydel projects, power trade, road and rail connectivity, and trade and commerce agreements have been signed, and some implemented in record time.

Mr. Koirala, the saviour

For four full days, Kathmandu’s $300 million makeover, ahead of the summit, held steady. There were 40,000 police personnel and army commandos who had secured the Kathmandu valley, depriving many locals the right of passage. Still officials were on pins and needles as helicopters hovered overhead and roads remained blocked for long spells of time. On November 28, after all the leaders left, Nepal declared a holiday with all the police, except the traffic teams, remaining invisible. The unsung hero who prevented a failed summit was Mr. Koirala.

The takeaways from Kathmandu were images of Mr. Sharif and Mr. Modi, transformed from being grim and grumpy at the inaugural session to beaming and blushing at the concluding ceremony. There was some talk but not what Mr. Sharif wanted. The robust handshake was phenomenally different from Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s surprise extension of his hand at the January 2002 Kathmandu SAARC inaugural, days after the attack on India’s Parliament. Later, then Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had extended his hand of friendship to his Pakistani counterpart, but unfortunately, things fell apart after the 26/11 blasts in Mumbai in 2008, which coincided with the present summit. Sadly there are no acche din for the region now. And as the French say, the more things appear to change, the more they remain the same.

(Gen. Ashok K. Mehta is convener of the Track II India-Afghanistan and India-Pakistan policy groups and was in Kathmandu for SAARC-related conferences.)