SOME TROUBLES ARE OVER, OTHERS ON THE HORIZON

http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/edit/some-troubles-are-over-others-on-the-horizon.html

Wednesday, 12 November 2014 | Ashok K Mehta | 

The year 2016 could be a game-changer for Afghanistan. It has to legitimise the NUG, keep the Afghan Taliban at bay and seek an early clarification on the deviation between Op Resolute Force and the BSA

Despite the frequent suicide attacks in Kabul and the heavy casualties being taken by the Afghan National Security Forces, and compared to the turmoil in Libya, Iraq Syria, Ukraine and the emergence of the Islamic State, Afghanistan has good news. In the power-sharing agreement brokered by the US and overseen by the UN, which the Indian foreign office unofficially alludes to as “an artificial arrangement”, there is cautious optimism over the formation of an inclusive National Unity Government.

Assisted by two five-men teams, President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and CEO/Prime Minister Abdullah Abdullah meet frequently to discuss policy. Mr Ashraf Ghani will enunciate policy and vision which Mr Abdullah will implement through the Council of Ministers. So far, except for National Security Advisor Mohammad Hanif Atmar, no other major appointment has been made. While the Abdullah side is likely to secure Defence and Foreign Affairs, the Ghani camp shall get Finance and Internal Affairs. A roving Ambassador for the region — which is still to be defined — is to be innovated for spurring the regional peace process. Mr Abdullah’s office is to be the residence built for former President Hamid Karzai, who has chosen to move into a modest abode.

The names of the Cabinet Ministers have to be finalised before the Winter recess of Parliament as they are required to be presented there. In any case, names will be known before the London conference scheduled on December 4-5, as the international community wants to meet the new faces. The London event is not a pledging meet but one only to review recent developments and endorse the NUG.

Hiccups over two coinciding deadlines have already begun. The first pertains to regularising the artificial arrangement of the NUG, which must be constitutionally legitimised after approval by the Loya Jirgah within two years by end-2016. The second is the deviation between the 2016 deadline for complete troop pull out as spelt out earlier this year by US President Barack Obama and the wording of the Bilateral Security Agreement signed jointly by Messrs Ghani and Abdullah. Following the Obama deadline, Pentagon issued the withdrawal timetable, called Operation Resolute Force. According to this, a 9,800-strong Training and Assistance Force and a Counter-Terrorism Force against the Al Qaeda (not the Afghan Taliban or the Haqqanis) would be operational with effect from January 2015. By end-2015, the numbers would fall to half, 4900 troops and by end 2016, the forces would withdraw in full leaving zero troops on the ground. The previous US committment was interpreted to supporting Afghanistan’s transformation from 2014 to 2024.

It was in response to this precipitous drawdown that during a conference at New Delhi last month, Afghan NSA Atmar called for an extended deadline beyond 2016, a concern articulated by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi while speaking at the Council for Foreign Relations in Washington, and also in his one-on-one conversation with President Obama. A key advisor to Mr Abdullah pointed out to me at a regional conference on Afghanistan in Istanbul last week that the BSA, which was negotiated for over two years, reads: “US forces can stay in Afghanistan until the end of 2024 and beyond”, mainly in nine major land and air bases. The earlier figure for the residual force was 15,000 combat and training forces along with 30,000 civilian contractors. Operation Resolute Force commits 9,800 troops tilll 2016. There is an apparent deviation in troop numbers and time lines.

Given the drubbing received by the Democrats in the House of Representatives and Senate and a lame duck President Obama, Afghans are optimistic that the 2016 deadline will change and revert to the time-stipulation in the BSA. But damage over US credibility and switch in timetables is credited to the US’s shortening attention span and declining interest in Afghanistan. While the shock-and-awe effect of the early withdrawal has been considerable on the establishment, the Afghan Taliban and other armed opposition have viewed it as a window of opportunity. A Taliban offensive in spring 2015 will likely test the waters and determine who is wearing the watches and who has the time.

The ANSF have suffered 5,000 casualties so far this year, compared to 4,500 casualties in 2013. While at places like Kabul, the Taliban is resorting to suicide attacks and using IEDs in other places in the North and South East, as part of Op Khyber, 400-500 Talibs have mounted attacks. Afghan forces are acutely deficient of air support, artillery and even casualty evacuation. New Delhi may double from 1000 to 2000 personnel it is training annually but it is wary of providing lethal military equipment for fear it may fall into wrong hands and/or it may be used against Pakistan across the Durand Line. India is aware that Islamabad continues to call the shots in Afghanistan. The Afghan Army is, therefore, being trained only for counterterrorism according to Nato standards and not skilled for conventional war fighting. This is at the behest of the Pakistan Army which does not want a strong Afghan Army on its western flank.

China has joined hands with its Iron Friend, Pakistan, to assist Afghanistan in achieving peace, stability and prosperity. A bigger contradiction is inconceivable. Kabul, Tehran and New Delhi, openly and subtly allege that Islamabad is at the root of cross border terrorism against them. China shares a 100-mile border with Afghanistan via the Badakshan panhandle where the terrain is treacherous. Last month during President Ghani’s first official visit to China, Afghanistan’s National Department of Security handed over to Beijing a dozen Uighur terrorists trained in Pakistan. China has appointed its first special AfPak envoy, the quintessential Yang Yiechi and established a China-Afghanistan-Pakistan forum. Pakistan is advising China to get more proactive in Afghanistan, fill the post-2014 withdrawal vacuum and marginalise India. China is being called the new elephant in the room, no longer limiting itself to commercial enterprises. Till last year its Afghanistan policy was circumscribed by four No-es: No interference in internal affairs; no boots on the ground; no criticism of the US ; no use by foreign forces of the Northern Distribution Network. Where even the US has failed can China moderate Pakistani activities in Afghanistan? Most unlikely.

The year 2016 could be a game-changer for Afghanistan. It has to legitimise the NUG, keep the Afghan Taliban at bay and seek an early clarification on the deviation between Op Resolute Force and the BSA. In other words, altering troops ‘can-stay’ to ‘will-stay’ in Afghanistan.