18 November 2014
Other developing nations have challenged India's leadership role in climate negotiations, where India and China were ostensibly negotiating together. But the fact remains that China has already achieved industrial prowess far in excess of India
The recent announcement by President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping that US-China will target to cut their nations’ carbon emissions is not only fantastic news for the world; it also highlights how India might get left out in the cold when it comes to climate negotiations.
Recently, when the world’s two largest economies and largest polluting countries shook hands after signing a deal that promised that both of them would curb carbon emissions significantly over the next decade and a half, the entire world noticed. It was, until humanity managed to land a space probe on a comet whizzing through space, the leading news story of the day.
As others have pointed out, there was nothing spectacular about China’s promise; it has been facing incredible public pressure to combat pollution, almost all of it generated from industrialisation, the country had committed to cut emissions for quite some time now. The Chinese have publicly stated that they would move away from a coal-based power strategy to one that involves cleaner fuels; and that the carbon emissions would peak by 2030. The Chinese, for example, have already set ambitious fuel-economy targets for road vehicles by the end of the decade.
Yet, despite the will of the Chinese leadership to impose these lofty goals, it remains to be seen whether the country can sustain the kind of growth if it cuts back on emissions. The world is still far from finding a sustainable power solution that can replace coal. While China, with its incredible demand, can drive a solution such as thorium-based power, feasibility could be an issue. But with over 15 years to go to meet the targets and technology’s incredible pace today, a solution could well be found.
The United States usually loathes to make climate-based promises. Given that the country is the spiritual home of climate-change denials, it has surprisingly also committed to cut emissions by up to 28 per cent by 2025. The US had at the Copenhagen summit of 2009 committed to cut emissions, and the new promise is little more than an extension of the same — although, it will involve the US adopting new technologies.
It remains to be seen whether the US will go through with its promise to curb carbon emissions, given the seismic (but expected) shift in Washington with the pro-industry Republicans in charge of both the houses of the Congress and the distinct possibility of a Republican President taking charge in January 2017. The American auto industry, while adopting the ‘hybrid’ model and having global champions of electric vehicles such as Tesla Automobiles, have not really given up fuel-guzzling ‘trucks’.
However, while both the United States and China will face political as well as technological challenges in meeting their self-imposed targets, this deal is also a message to the world’s third-largest polluter — India. It has been stated again, that in absolute terms and in per capita terms, India pollutes far less than the two countries mentioned above. At an average, an Indian generates a carbon footprint that is equivalent to a quarter of the size of an average Chinese and a 10th of that of an average American. If nothing else, Indian polity’s glorification of poverty for the large part of six decades has ensured this.
However, India is rapidly changing and it is unclear whether statistics capture some of the more egregious emissions of carbon such as the disposition of a large part of rice stalk by burning it by north Indian farmers. The burning fields are a massive generator of carbon and something that becomes quite apparent when one drives down from Himachal Pradesh into the Punjab/Haryana bread-basket. While crossing into the new Himalayan Expressway at Pinjore, the skies transform from bright and sunny into a hazy mush.
Recently, New Delhi topped the list of being one of the most polluted cities in the world, leading Beijing by a country mile. And while Delhi does not share the Chinese capital’s horrible haze, it is getting there. While taking off from Delhi’s airport and at around 5,000 feet, you will notice a black cloud hanging over the city, as the aircraft breaks into a clear sunshine. These stories of pollution have little to do ostensibly with climate change but it highlights Indian policy makers abysmal attempts to deal with such problems.
There is a little doubt that India finds itself on the wrong foot when it comes to climate change; India’s emissions will only continue to increase if the Narendra Modi Government follows through with its promises of lifting India’s growth rate. Despite nuclear deals with various countries for fuel supplies as well as advances in solar and wind power, coal-powered thermal plants will provide the bulk of India’s new power supplies over the coming years.
Even if India is able to deal with burning fields and replacing cowdung as a fuel source, if it has to deal with the aspirations of a young India, per capita carbon emissions are only bound to increase.
India has already found itself isolated from other developing countries that will face the brunt of climate change such as the neighbouring Bangladesh and the Maldives who will have to cope with rising sea levels. Other developing nations have also challenged India’s leadership role in climate negotiations where India and China were ostensibly negotiating together, but the fact remains that China has already achieved industrial prowess far in excess of India. And European countries where environmentalism is an established political cause are putting immense pressure on India’s negotiating stance. India’s development as a country, is argued selfishly by many nations, particularly those with high standards of living, poses a risk to the world.
The fact is that India will also suffer immensely from climate change — shrinking glaciers, changes in the monsoon pattern and rising sea levels pose immense risks to the country. Balancing environmental concerns with the aspirations of almost half a billion young people will possibly be the greatest challenge facing the new Government. It is a challenge that, if dealt with, can propel the Government in not just being a one that pushed India forward, but also one that pushed the world ahead.
This is a challenge that needs to be dealt with, and we are only kidding ourselves if we dig our heads in the sand and pretend nothing is wrong.
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