Iraq Situation Summary

November 18, 2014

Although Baiji district is not fully cleared by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Iraqi Shi’a militias, it is clear that ISIS has lost a significant part of the area and has decided not to reinforce it from Hawija, an ISIS stronghold located north of Baiji. It is unclear if the ISF and militias intend to capitalize on their momentum in Baiji by attempting to advance north toward Hawija. Nevertheless, the gains achieved by the ISF and militias in Baiji seem to have spurred ISIS to call for enlistment by the youth of Hawija, likely in anticipation of an ISF push from Baiji. The ISF and militias also may decide to launch a major attack on Tikrit, now that it is isolated from Baiji. Either way, it appears that the ISF and militias for now have the opportunity to set the terms of battle by choosing where and when to fight, at least in the area extending from Tikrit through Baiji, and toward Hawija. This is a significant development given that ISIS has had the initiative at least since the fall of Mosul in June of 2014. The attack by ISIS on Baghdadi sub-district today almost certainly was aimed at disrupting the ISF and tribal forces and diverting their resources.