November 7, 2014 ·
The future of drone warfare could truly resemble something out of Star Wars.– stealth drones, dog-fighting drones, autonomous drones that interact with other drones — without human intervention — swarms of killer drones and/or suicide drones — miniature and micro drones [targeted killing machines] with DNA signature-enabled warheads; and, the list goes on limited only by the imagination and further technological advances. Adam Clark Estes, writing in the February 9, 2014 edition of The Atlantic’s – The Wire, “The Future Of Drone Warfare Is Scary,” says “the future of drone warfare is mind-bending. For example, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) “has been developing an unmanned submarine that can shoot out of the water and turn into an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) — just like Batman’s gadgets do,” Mr. Estes wrote. “And, a number of armies [around the world] have developed tiny drones, some as small as insects, that can conduct reconnaissance [and intelligence] missions without the risk of detection,” he adds.
Sharon Weinberger, writing in the May 17, 2014 New York Post, says that “a new generation of drones are under development that will be able to penetrate the air defenses of even the most sophisticated nations, spotting [clandestine] nuclear facilities; and, track down and possibly kill a terrorist leader silently — from high altitudes,” or, with a miniature/micro drone dropped from a series of mother-ships — with a DNA-signature enabled warhead. “These drones,” Ms. Weinberger notes, “will be fast, stealthy, and survivable, and designed to sneak in and out of a county,” ungoverned area, or location — “without ever being spotted.”
So, it comes as no surprise that the Department of Defense (DoD) is devoting a fair amount of research and development funds, and experimentation to figuring out how to — both use these new technologies to our advantage on the battlefield, as well as how to defend the homeland and the deployed warfighter.
Patrick Tucker, writing on the November 6, 2014 website, DefenseOne.com, notes that “at the end of last month (Oct.), DoD put out a request for information, or RFI, for new technologies “countering” commercial drones that are armed with chemical, biological, or massively destructive weapons.” “Specifically” Mr. Tucker writes, the request asks for ideas on “emerging technologies, technical applications, and their potential to counter a low/cost, man-portable, commercial-off-the-shelf unmanned aerial system (UAS) — carrying a chemical and/or biological WMD payload.” “And, that includes electronic systems that can interdict, deny, or defeat, hostile use of UAS,’ and “systems providing the capability to intercept and neutralize the UAS.” The DoD RFI also “encourages both kinetic, and non-kinetic solutions,” — and, the technologies should have global reach. The project called Thunderstorm, will feature a technology demonstration in the second fiscal quarter of 2015 — at Mississippi’s Camp Shelby.”
Mr. Tucker adds that” the RFI is looking for the drone to be able to detect a wide variety of nerve agents like Sarin, as well as industrial compound toxins; and, even flowers and wildlife, or “persistent and natural flora (providing biological surveillance on current and emerging flora).” The UAV “should also be able to reach 1,000 feet, fly for at least 30 minutes without recharging; and, be able to actually collect samples and fly them back to DoD labs for analysis.” In a request from proposals in February, DoD asked for ideas to counter UAV technologies to detect drones that were both large, and micro-sized.”
“It’s the second portion of the RFI,” Mr. Tucker writes, “that speaks to a fast growing military worry: How to shoot down the thousands [swarm] of potentially dirty drones that could swarming towards the United States in the decade ahead.” “As many as 30,000 UAV’s will be darkening America’s skies by 2020,” according to Todd Humphreys, at the University of Texas at Austin. “They could be engineered to carry dangerous payloads,” he says, “or, simply used as weapons.”
Every Country Will Have Drones Within 10 Years
“Some of the capabilities featured in the most recent request include, “sensors, software, or computers to detect and classify Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Collaboration, and Intelligence (C5I); and, sensor systems that facilitate rapid detection, identification, and classification of UAS targets.”
“How easy is it to detect drones?” Mr. Tucker asks. “Simple enough that you can do it at home…in some cases,” he writes. “A company called Domestic Drone Countermeasures, will sell you a kit consisting of three boxes: A Primary Command and Control Module, and two Detection Sensor Nodes. These three boxes create a mesh network that can triangulate moving transmitters.” But, as Mr. Tucker observes, “detecting the presence of a drone is different from tracking a drone’s location, movement, or classifying its type of payload. Achieving that level of capability requires more advanced radar equipment that the military is looking to shrink down and make more mobile. Last September, the USAF modified the Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System aboard one of its JSTARS test jets — to perform a massive, counter-UAV exercise. JSTARS is “an airborne system designed to find, and track ground and maritime targets, as well as slow-moving, fixed-wing aircraft, and rotating antennas.”
“if you can detect the identity of the drone, and find it — how do you get it down?” Mr. Tucker asks.
“Today,” he writes, “the primary drone counter measure for disrupting drones, is communication and radar jamming, hurting the ability of the drone to communicate with its operator. DoD is paying Raytheon $10B to build what the military is calling the Next Generation Jammer.” “But, future counter-drone technologies include the various direct energy weapons making their way onto trucks, planes, and particularly ships and boats. The Office of Naval Research (ONR) has made this a particular focus,” Mr. Tucker added. “We can expect that our adversaries will increasingly use UAVs; and, our expeditionary forces must deal with the rising threat,” said Col. William Zamagni, in a June 2014 press release announcing ONR’s award in the Ground Based Air Defense Directed Energy On-The-Move Program, GBAD Program.”
“If detection technology can be made small and cheap enough,” Mr. Tucker concludes, “the ultimate weapon against swarms of cheap drones will likely be…swarms of cheap drones. It’s a research project underway at the Naval Postgraduate School, where in 2012, Professor Timothy Chung said he was looking to put together a massive swarm on swarm drone challenge. This effort was to culminate in two teams each, with 50 Harpy-style, small drones “Duking it out over skies of Camp Roberts,” in California, in 2015.”
“In the meantime, ideas for Thunderstorm project are due November 26, 2014.”
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