28 Nov , 2014
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/are-the-good-days-coming/0/
National interest is something India needs to learn from America. Regardless of the provocation, national interest must always dictate the actions of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). Though the frequency has reduced, we have looked so foolish standing on our high moral horse time and again at the cost of our national interests. Whilst it is true that the internal situation does colour our external relations, at one stage, the MEA had achieved the impossible. We have had poor relations with all our neighbours. This is something we have to correct from the word ‘go’.
India remains vulnerable to the disturbances spilling over from her neighbours…
The euphoria of the epic general elections is over. As per statisticians, at least 33 per cent of the voters are absolutely thrilled at their sagacity. The mood in the country is upbeat despite El Nino and the economic slowdown. Although the average citizen knows in his heart of hearts that things cannot change in a hurry, the mounting inflation and the dismounting subsidies are already causing heartburn. Meanwhile, by all reports, the Prime Minister (PM) and hopefully, his team seem to have buckled down to putting in place a more responsive and hygienic system of governance (not government, mind you).
Today, the South Asian Region ranks as one of the three flashpoints in the world along with the Middle East and North Korea. Within this region lies a group of nations in troubled transition to modernity, their external discourse damned by internal contradictions. In a world moving towards integration, many of these nations remain torn by ethnic and religious strife, economic disparities and political instability. For obvious reasons, it is full of turmoil. Internal dynamics and external influences have led to increase in the degree of uncertainty.
As a member of this region, India remains vulnerable to the disturbances spilling over from her neighbours. India herself is at the crossroads. We witness this giant stirring into wakefulness, into an awareness of its power today. This rise in stature brings with it greater responsibilities and a larger role in regional as well as global affairs. This demands not only a change in policy, internal and external, but a fundamental change in our very thinking, ethos and value system. This then is the challenge before the Modi government that is in an unenviable position of having to balance the vast burden of public aspirations with some hard-headed, tough governance on one hand and boosting the sagging economy on the other. At the same time, convince the world that India cannot to be trifled with. What, then, should the priorities before the Modi government be?
The lack of strategic direction ultimately contributes to a lack of national character and a lack of national will…
Priorities: An Overview
The Modi government has been blessed with a massive mandate by the people of India. Public participation and media hype have perhaps been unprecedented in recent history. But therein lies the rub. Now everyone from a chaiwala to a CEO feels that he is a major stakeholder and is demanding the government begin delivering. Let us have a brief glance at the priorities.
Top Priority: Some of these are checking corruption, taming inflation, reviving economy, boosting manufacture and agriculture.
Power: These include de-nationalisation of the coal sector, corporatisation of railways and establishing a land bank.
Defence: Includes increase in budget, streamlining acquisition procedures and boosting indigenous capability.
Foreign Policy: This ranges from Indo-US relations to dealing with China and Pakistan to relations with neighbouring states and the ‘Look East’ policy.
We have laws, rules and regulations for every conceivable contingency; our problem is implementation…
I have merely tried to list a few illustrative priorities. So how does a government deal with such a massive number is the question, I am sure, on everybody’s mind. One way is to qualify them into Essential, Desirable and Routine. Many of them will have to be sounded out against the political sounding board. Some of them will be kept in abeyance as non-productive. Some will have to be dictated by the emerging international scenario. Whatever be the disposal, one common thread runs through the entire process. They all have to be measured against a common time base. Time is of the essence chiefly because this government has taken over the reins at a time when India is at the cusp of its political and economic power.
I am fairly sanguine that the PM and his cabinet are more than seized of all the nuances. Their efforts are already visible in Lutyen’s Delhi. Many of these efforts are specifically related to the Defence and Security scenarios.
Strategic Direction
One aspect that is conspicuous by its absence is National Strategy. Simply put, where we are and where we wish to be in, let us say, 20 or 40 years time. I am sure someone must have articulated some thoughts, someone must have worked towards a formulation, at least some of our leaders must be familiar with it. How come, then, that almost all our endeavours, be it foreign relations, arms acquisitions, bills/ordinances, internal security or key appointments, smack of ad-hocism? The lack of strategic direction ultimately contributes to a lack of national character and a lack of national will, two maladies we have been afflicted with for decades.
National strategy comprises many disciplines. To name a few, defence, security, economy, agriculture, industry, diplomacy and foreign relations. Once national strategy is drafted, debated, modified and enunciated, it defines the broad path to follow, regardless of who is in power. All other strategies such as military, economic, industrial will flow from it. The process of formulation must start now. A group of experts from as many fields as practical should be tasked to present the first draft in a time bound period. Let it first be debated within the government and then publicly. Media must be taken onboard at a predetermined time. Thereafter, we need to publish a White Paper for the benefit of the world so that others are also privy to our thinking. March 2015 could be the target date.
The Nehruvian era witnessed the rise of the bureaucracy. This is one single group responsible for the poor governance that ails the country today.
Effective Implementation
We have laws, rules and regulations for every conceivable contingency; our problem is implementation. Effective implementation involves every citizen but more so, it is dealt with by the bureaucracy and the police.
The Police: Generations have been sent into paroxysms of laughter by the antics of policemen and women on celluloid. The public is contemptuous of them. The second emotion they evoke is fear. People consider them depraved, deprived and they are generally despised. This is partly a carryover from the colonial days when they were actively used to further the nefarious designs of British rulers. In the 67 years after independence, their lot has not improved. What can one expect of a policeman who is overworked, underpaid, under-housed, misused and abused by his political masters? The common excuse given is that it is a state subject and the centre can only suggest. If we want effective implementation, we have to immediately and earnestly improve their lot. Some suggestions are:-
Amend the archaic Police Act, an issue that has been long pending.
Improve their pay scales, their living and working conditions, their access to better technology and weapons. Insist on compliance by the states.
Recruit to fill deficiencies.
Control of the police must be with police officers and not with politicians. This is a sensitive issue and this is where the wheels of progress get stuck. Unless we overcome this resistance, we condemn the police to continued purgatory.
The Bureaucracy: The Nehruvian era witnessed the rise of the bureaucracy. This is one single group responsible for the poor governance that ails the country today. Their rise was aided and abetted by indifferent or ignorant ministers who preferred to let the bureaucrats run ministries. Rampant sycophancy was the direct result and national interest and governance were the victims. The BBC serial “Yes Minister” reflects the Indian milieu so beautifully. Of course, there are some excellent bureaucrats but they are few in number. The problem has always been a lack of accountability. The Ministers were so overly dependent on them that they could not make demands on them or take them to task. It is heartening to note that the PM has made it his first priority and if the media is to be believed, the results are already visible in North and South Blocks.
…Article 370 must continue to be discussed openly at regular intervals so that awareness is created about its nuances.
Internal Security
The dimensions are staggering. At one end is the individual security of citizens, especially women. The other end of the spectrum comprises Naxals, the North East States, Article 370 and outfits such as HUJI and IM. As far as individual security is concerned, policing is the only immediate answer.
Naxalism: Let me relate an interesting story. I had made a courtesy call on the then Home Minister. Over a cup of coffee when I asked him if the Naxals were a problem, he gave me a ten-minute talk explaining that there was no Naxal problem and isolated incidents were being cited to exaggerate the issue. He gave me a lot of pamphlets to prove the point. I then went to the Home Secretary’s office and lo and behold! He gave me the same spiel. Be that as it may, Naxals are a problem today born out of socio-economic and socio-political repression. These need to be addressed but this will take its due course. Of short term concern is the boots on ground, the killings and attacks on policemen and people. The Naxal movement for freedom must be controlled through the following measures:
Para Military Forces (PMF) operations under a central planning agency involving all stakeholders. The socio-political/economic balm must be applied simultaneously. Synergy is the order of the day.
Improved leadership, training, infrastructure and technology are the prerequisites to such endeavours. If the media is to be believed, some organisations may need restructuring and rejuvenating.
Extensive use of air power in terms of drones, helicopters for recce and support roles.
I feel it has to be an ‘out’ to ‘in’ approach with PMF operating out of few, well-protected bases conducting operations and returning to safe homes, first securing easier areas, then venturing onto the more difficult ones.
The North East States must be brought into the mainstream…
North East States, HUJI and IM: The North East States must be brought into the mainstream. They have contributed significantly to national wealth and have been ignored. Build up of road/rail infrastructure should be a priority. I have clubbed organisations like HUJI to point out a salient difference. Naxals and Nagas are indigenous and rural. Their ire is against indigenous indifference, maltreatment or mis-governance. The ‘jihadi’ organisations on the other hand, project the agenda of external powers with separation from the Union as their prime objective. So while one needs to be resolved by winning the hearts and minds, the other needs ruthless eradication.
Jammu and Kashmir: A problem we have faced and fought over for decades and it is not likely to be resolved in the near future. However, it is equally vital for us not to forget that Kashmir is an integral part of our Union. I am of the opinion that Article 370 needs to be done away with. Obviously, it is too early to resolve this problem. However, it must not be forgotten and Article 370 must continue to be discussed openly at regular intervals so that awareness is created about its nuances.
External Security
India’s strategic perspectives are shaped by her history, geography, geo-political realities and the demands of real-politik. Our native culture, our innate traditions of trust and tolerance and our vision of world peace shape our national character which in turn, impacts on our international relations. These vital parameters are as relevant today as they have been earlier. India shares borders with 11 neighbours. Our relations with some are uneasy and with some, hostile. Any unrest within this somewhat hostile neighbourhood spills over into our borders in many forms and with depressing regularity. Unless these geo-political cross currents affecting us are subdued, they would continue to thwart our desire to move forward. Hence, the first priority becomes improving relations with our immediate neighbours. They have been hostage to regional political blackmail in the past. With this massive mandate, the government needs to move forward. The PM has already indicated this by his visits to Bhutan and Nepal.
China is another major concern; we must engage China but from a position of strength…
Among the neighbours, Pakistan remains an immediate concern. We do need to continue dialogue on our own terms but not by bending over backwards. I do believe that initiating military to military dialogue will be an out-of-the-box step that is likely to pay dividends. Start at an innocuous level like medical, meteorological, sports exchanges and invitations to seminars and see how it pans out. It is important that our politicos repose complete faith in our military. As a matter of policy, we must insist on Pakistan ceasing support to terrorism before dialogue can progress.
China is another major concern; we must engage China but from a position of strength. We have a window of 10 to 15 years in which to strengthen the NE in terms of infrastructure. Our missile reach must be enhanced to achieve the desired deterrence. Naval presence in the Indian Ocean must be more tangible. But this is a long term plan. In the short term, we must engage China in infrastructure and trade. Be patient. The Chinese think in terms of a thousand years. They have long memories. One last input. They set a lot of store by ‘face’. Loss of face cannot be countenanced. This reduces chances of major misadventures.
The ‘Look East’ policy had been re-energised during the Manmohan regime. I am confident that the PM will pursue this actively. Japan, Vietnam and Myanmar have a lot to offer us. In fact, presently our national interests also show congruence in the face of Chinese stance on the South China Sea. Australia however, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt in view of her other alliances. Relations with USA, Russia, EU, UK, Israel and the Arab World appear to be on track and part of the long term perspective.
Perpetuated by the innate civil-military trust deficit since the Nehruvian era, no government has addressed this malaise…
National interest is something India needs to learn from America. Regardless of the provocation, national interest must always dictate the actions of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). Though the frequency has reduced, we have looked so foolish standing on our high moral horse time and again at the cost of our national interests. Whilst it is true that the internal situation does colour our external relations, at one stage the MEA had achieved the impossible. We have had poor relations with all our neighbours. This is something we have to correct from the word ‘go’.
Defence
The Defence Secretary is responsible for the defence of India. The Indian Army, the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force are attached offices to the Ministry of Defence (MOD). Herein lies the defence conundrum. Perpetuated by the innate civil-military trust deficit since the Nehruvian era, no government has addressed this malaise over the last six decades. Events in neighbouring countries have strengthened the trust deficit. The result is the Armed Forces of India have no say in the decision making process; the security apparatus functions with minimal inputs from the services; civilian control over the military has been misinterpreted to ridiculous levels and bureaucrats rule the roost. The topic deserves an entire chapter, nay, an entire book. I wish to make some brief suggestions to the government which may ameliorate some of the ill effects.
Integration: The MOD and the Services must be integrated and brought on a par with other Ministries. Lip service has been paid to this aspect many a time. We may start at lower levels like Director/Colonel equivalent and gradually build up after stabilisation. Rescind the order terming Services HQs as attached offices and make them a part of the decision making process.
Budget and Procurement: The Defence Budget needs to be upped to at least three per cent of GDP. This has been long pending. The argument given is that even now there is unspent money at the end of the financial year. This is basically due to a couple of reasons. Firstly, it is sometimes done deliberately by Finance so that reallocation to other sectors can be done. Secondly, it is due to incompetence or indifference at bureaucratic level because they have no accountability. Lastly, it happens due to inherent delays in the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP). This came into vogue in 2006 and has been refined. I do not think it can be refined further. We need to take a new look at it, simplify it and make it more effective.
There is no country in the world where foreign companies operate without middlemen…
Middlemen: Corruption in defence deals is attributed to this species. Time and again the media throws up news of notorious names and the damage to the exchequer. We must understand there is no country in the world where foreign companies operate without middlemen. They may be termed ‘agents’ or ‘facilitators’ or ‘liaison’. In India, the rules of business are so complex that our own companies would find it difficult to prosecute business without liaison, not to talk of foreign firms. The government had tried to register the names of middlemen a decade ago. The terms and conditions were so onerous and intrusive that naturally, none came forward. We need to permit middlemen, register them and ensure they pay their taxes for what they receive. This will achieve transparency and in fact reduce corruption. A common belief is that this is one of the ways to enhance party funding and hence the reluctance to permit middlemen.
Indigenisation: Indigenisation, no doubt, is a crying need. India is one of the biggest importers of arms in the world; indigenisation cannot take place overnight. We have to create conditions for it to happen. Over the next ten years, we are likely to spend $230 billion on defence. At 30 per cent offsets, the figure is staggering. Can our industry handle such offsets? Does the private sector have the strength and capacity to absorb such amounts? We need to simplify our rules to enable the private sector.
The recent decision to enhance the limit of FDI to 49 per cent may help to some extent. There are two things we need to set in motion at the earliest. First is a reorganisation of the DRDO and the Ordnance Factories to make them accountable and efficient. The second is a restructuring of HAL, our biggest PSU to make it more capable. The results will be visible in three to four years and gradually we would move towards indigenisation.
We need to permit middlemen, register them and ensure they pay their taxes for what they receive…
Pending Issues: Some issues that could be addressed early have been clubbed. One Rank One Pension (OROP) is an issue affecting the morale of thousands of veterans and needs resolution. Second, the 7th Pay Commission, like its predecessors, has no representative from the Services. Third, a vast country like ours whose soldiers have fought so many wars does not have a National War Memorial of its own. It is a matter of national shame and needs to be put right.
Chief of Defence Staff (CDS): Any discussion on defence reforms is incomplete without reference to a CDS. Many acknowledged experts feel that this is the panacea that will set right everything. They are even ready to accept a purely cosmetic appointment of a permanent Chairman of COSC. However, my views are that different countries have different formulations of CDS. In some, the CDS looks after Operations and the three Chiefs provide the forces. Others have the CDS in charge of training, provisioning, logistics and intelligence. In some countries, the CDS looks after budgeting and procurement. We need to decide what type of CDS is most suitable for us. Joint Operations doctrine naturally flows down to Theatre Commands. This is effective when you envisage regular operations away from the homeland. We do not envisage such ops. Exigencies can be dealt with by special joint operations.
Joint operations need technology which enables the Commander to control remote areas of influence. We do not possess such technology. So far, adequate emphasis has not been laid on ‘Jointness’ in career progression. That means only those who have served on joint billets can be promoted beyond a certain level. The appointment for a CDS is imperative; we just need to decide on what kind of CDS we require. Personnel also need to be groomed for joint operations and the necessary technology developed. The need of the hour for the Army is tanks, howitzers and ammunition while the Navy requires ships, submarines, torpedoes and missiles. The Air Force’s requirement of the day is aircraft, missiles and radars. Ongoing contracts to restore and refurbish our fighting forces need to be completed first before any restructuring can take place.
Neither do we understand national interest nor do we sport national pride openly. We do not possess a ‘Brand India’…
My take on CDS may be summarised thus. Let us start the debate, develop technology. In three to five years, let the CDS look after budgeting and acquisitions for all the Services besides Joint Commands, strategic weapons and Intelligence. Most importantly, he needs to be the single point of military advice to the Defence Minister and the PM. We should think of a parallel approach with the Defence Secretary dealing with inter-ministry issues and the CDS with military issues. Will the government accept so much power vested in one military person? Will the bureaucracy permit such a trespass on their traditional turf? These are questions that have to be answered first.
Conclusion
We do not have a national character or a national religion. We are not agreed upon a national language; neither do we understand national interest nor do we sport national pride openly. We do not possess a ‘Brand India’. Having been ruled by foreign powers for a thousand years, the scars manifest themselves in our behaviour. Independence was attained with very little bloodshed thanks to the struggles and sacrifices of a few great men and women and so, not everyone has felt the pain. We have got democracy before literacy. Hence we undervalue it. We are not responsible citizens and we do not take our duties as citizens seriously. It boggles the imagination that despite these impediments, we have continued as a successful democracy for more than 60 years. We are deeply emotional. Once we take someone to our hearts, we raise him to the highest pedestal, that of a demi-God. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is one such individual. The public manifestation is the massive mandate given to him in the recent elections. Every Indian expects him to set things right. Sometimes, I sympathise with him because the sheer weight of public expectations must be wearing him down every day. Time is at a premium. He has taken over the reins of government at a time when India’s stock is low in the world in terms of credit rating. The inaction of the outgoing government has left him with myriads of problems. The world economy is in a slowdown mode. El Nino is delaying the monsoon. The war in Iraq has affected demand and supply of oil. Prices of common goods are rising. He has thousands of priorities before him and he knows that, finally, hard, unpalatable decisions will have to be taken.
My thinking on how to handle some of the priorities has been put down in this paper. I am sure the government is aware of most of them. Some measures to clean up the administration have already been initiated in Delhi. I have made special mention of the priorities in Defence and Security sectors. All priorities will have to measure up against a time graph; some more imperative than others. Some have to be initiated immediately for the effect to be felt later. Some will have to be sounded out against the political sounding board or the international environment. Some will have to be abandoned after a cost benefit analysis, to be tried out at a more propitious time.
Whatever be the method, it has to be a combined effort. Not only the government but also the opposition has to fall in line on issues dealing with national interests. The whole country will have to learn to tighten its belt for some tough measures. We citizens will have to exert the national will to overcome the ills of corruption, delayed decisions and lack of governance. Remember, there is no magic wand. Patience should be the order of the day. I have no doubt that if each one of us exercises more discipline, does our own job sincerely and keeps national interest in mind, good days will come and India will once again take its rightful place in the new world order.
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