20.10.2014
Water availability will determine China's future energy mix, says Li Junfeng, director of the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation
China has been describing itself as a country short of land and energy but rarely do we hear that we are water scarce (Image by emdurso)
Liu Hongqiao (LH): Why is water security more important than energy security?
Li Junfeng (LJF): China has been suffering from a nationwide shortage of energy and water resources. Water and energy security are both important and closely related. However, water security is more complex, and needs more attention. China’s oil demand can be met by importing 60% of its oil from other countries, but it wouldn’t be possible to ensure freshwater supply in this way – it would be unsustainable if a highly populated, global manufacturing country like China imported 10% of its water demand.
LH: China is currently undertaking an ambitious energy transformation plan. One of the most urgent tasks is to cut coal use by half by 2050. How will limited water resources shape this reduction?
LJF: For China, whether it is in a “high coal demand era” or “low coal demand era”, energy and water are inevitably linked. For future planning of the energy mix, water must be taken into consideration as an important factor. The current plan is to reduce coal use by 1% per year, while increasing the use of alternative energy sources by the same amount.
Coal mining, coal washing, coal plants, cooling and slag processing all require a lot of water. So people assume that cutting down on coal use will save huge amounts of water. However, we should bear in mind that some types of alternative energy also require large water consumption.
Take shale gas as an example: China plans to reach 400 billion cubic metres of shale gas and natural gas production per annum by 2030. This extraction process would require at least 15 billion cubic metres of freshwater each year. Both gas-fired and coal-fired power plants are also big water consumers in China. Even wind and solar power are also water consumers.
LH: All energy needs water, but will the reduced share of coal in the energy mix result in less water consumption in energy production?
LFJ: If natural gas or nuclear were to replace coal, water consumption may remain the same or even increase because natural-gas extraction and the cooling of nuclear plants requires even more water than coal. Water availability is critical to China’s current restructuring of its energy mix. Coal and coal-to-chemical industries rely on large amounts of water. Same for nuclear power – the huge demand for water for cooling significantly limits nuclear-power expansion, meaning coastal areas are favoured over inland areas. The sea will hardly dry out, but China’s inland rivers and lakes have already been greatly depleted. Water availability will greatly impact the future selection of energy sources and their locations.
LH: Water availability has been factored in for coal expansion. Has this translated to the whole national energy plan?
LJF: Not yet… we used to take water resources for granted. China has been describing itself as a country short of land and energy but rarely do we hear that we are water scarce. In fact, water resources in China are not abundant; moreover they are not being effectively used.
But the situation is changing. At central government level, premier Li Keqiang has declared “war” on water pollution, air pollution and soil pollution. The National Development and Reform Commission is also working on the “Water Pollution Prevention & Control Action Plan”. This is a very positive signal from the top.
LH: There is growing evidence of the impact of climate change on water distribution across China. Will this influence future decision-making about energy?
LJF: For decision-makers, geographical water availability limits the location of energy projects in the short term. New energy projects should clearly take into account future water demand both for operational and emergency needs. In the long run, energy distribution should consider the impact of climate change and changing climate patterns. According to recent studies by scientists from both China and abroad, the current pattern of “flood in the south and drought in the north” might gradually reverse and become “drought in the south and flood in the north”. The process will be slow but will have a significant impact on China’s energy planning for the next 20 to 30 years.
A nuclear-power plant has an operational lifespan of around 60 years, long enough for it to be exposed to impacts from climate change. Current nuclear plants are all located in coastal provinces such as Guangdong. There are plans to locate some of the new plants to inland provinces like Anhui and Jiangxi, with the hope of drawing water from the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake. But is there really enough water in the long term? I doubt it. We have already witnessed flow interruptions in the Yellow River as well as the depletion of Poyang Lake.
LH: Some proposed nuclear plants have faced resistance from the public. How do you see the future of nuclear-power development in China?
LJF: Well, in my view, if we are not building more nuclear-power plants now, it will be more difficult to build them in the future. The future of nuclear power also depends on the future development of other alternative energies. If wind power and solar energy continue to grow fast, there will be less space for nuclear power. Cost is another factor. More stringent environmental requirements have increased the cost to develop nuclear power, making it less competitive than others. For instance, in the US, after the big fall in the cost of shale-gas extraction, no one is willing to invest in new nuclear plants.
Within China, there are lots of debates going on. Those who support nuclear power claim that China will not be able to achieve energy security without nuclear-power development. But is this true? China plans to develop 70-300 gigawatts of nuclear power by 2020 and 2030, while total power installation will reach 2,700 to 3,000 gigawatts by 2030. So nuclear power will only account for around 10% of total demand, making it optional rather than essential.
LH: Under the 12th Five-Year Plan, quite a few large-scale hydropower projects were approved in the south-west. Where do you see hydropower heading?
LJF: The past decade was the golden age for hydropower in China, but the next decade will see an end to this boom. In essence, China’s hydropower development is “a spent arrow”. Hydropower is no longer rapidly growing; 80% of China’s available hydropower resources have already been developed. China’s hydropower capacity has reached 250 gigawatts and is expected to increase to 350 gigawatts in the future. Hydropower development should likely reach its final stage by 2025 and by 2030 China’s massive hydropower construction should be finished.
LH: What about the planned large-scale hydropower expansion on transboundary rivers such as the Yarlong, Nu and Lancang rivers?
LJF: They are very unlikely to be developed. Many of these projects are proposed to be built in areas with extremely complex geological conditions, some even in extremely unstable zones with high risk of earthquakes. To build hydropower in those areas requires great care. As I said, the golden age for hydropower has passed. From a political perspective, the high-level decision-makers are also more and more aware of the importance of environmental protection. Former premier Wen Jiabao approved far fewer hydropower plants during his second term than his first term. Change is slow, but it is happening.
LH: So what do you think China’s optimum future energy mix looks like?
LJF: It is hard to predict, but we do have lessons to learn from other countries. We need to “walk on two legs”: one is to accelerate the development of non-fossil fuels, and the other is to make fossil energy cleaner. For China, the most important is to have a balanced energy mix.
I am not opposed to nuclear power, but as I said, nuclear development will only make up a small portion of total energy needs. We need to keep developing solar, wind, hydro and natural gas and eventually shift to non-fossil energy sources.
With regard to China’s future energy plan, we need to increase energy efficiency and save energy at the same time. Actually this is a must. We must ensure China’s economic development stays within both its environmental capacity and energy capacity. Approvals should only be given to projects with limited impacts on the environment and energy security. No more water-intensive energy projects should be implemented. Every construction project should be required to provide a water-supply plan.
Take Ningxia province as an example; new coal plants wanting to use water-cooling technologies must find water sources to meet their demand. In reality, water quotas in Ningxia province are almost used up, leaving little water allocation for newcomers. New plants, therefore, have no choice but to adopt the most advanced water-efficient technologies or switch to air-cooling.
This is an edited version of an interview published by China Water Risk
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