Southeast Asia 2035: A Realized Economic Promise? Report Released

http://www.wikistrat.com/southeast-asia-2035-a-realized-economic-promise-report-released/

Posted on October 16, 2014 by wikistrat

Will the countries of Southeast Asia remain stuck in the “middle-income trap”? Or will they realize their economic promise by 2035? In the report released today, Wikistrat shows what it would take for the region to get there in twenty years’ time — and what futures await it if fails.

Southeast Asia’s growth outperformed other regions during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 and recent projections point to continued strong growth. As production costs are increasing in China, multinational firms look to Southeast Asia for its lower cost of production, its growing middle class and its rising education levels.

Yet some dark clouds can be seen gathering on the horizon. As income levels rise, so do wages, thereby undercutting Southeast Asia’s low-cost advantage. Squeezed in between other low-wage economies and advanced high-income ones, the region could stagnate unless it pushes its way to high-income status with innovation, advanced technology and high-skilled labor. In other words, the question is will Southeast Asia overcome what the World Bank calls the “middle-income trap” that sees many other developing countries failing to rise to the next level?

There are challenges beyond the economic. These range from major trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, promoted by the United States, China’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, vast potential of oil and gas resources within or outside disputed waters in the South China Sea, the American “pivot” to Asia, China and Japan’s rising nationalism, global geopolitical rivalry, water scarcity and climate change.

This summer, Wikistrat conducted an online, crowdsourced simulation in which its analysts were asked to identify which of these factors, or combinations of factors, will contribute to Southeast Asia’s economic success over the next twenty years. In the report released today, Wikistrat Senior Analyst Andrew K.P. Leung summarizes the findings of 50 competing scenarios in four “Master Narratives” that each describe a possible future for the region

Click here or on the cover image to download the full PDF report.

For more information about Wikistrat and for access to the full simulation archive, contact info@wikistrat.com.